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June Pattern Discussion


CapturedNature

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Looks like PHX may set a tecord tomorrow for the warmest temp for so early in the season. Their record through 6/19 is 115F. MOS is puking out 118/117 for tomorrow. Glad we don't live there.

 

12z GFS continues to protect anyone E of 90W from certain truths, ... it's really pretty remarkable this keeps happening, and verifying too - 

 

suppose we'll have to go ahead give a nod of confidence to the nor'easter on the GGEM while we're at it  :axe:

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Wow...

BTV 87/31 with 15% RH. That's some dry air, western US stuff. Looks like 30F was the lowest dew this afternoon.

What causes that? Mixing? Their dew was 56F at 12pm, and 30F at 3pm.

 

 

i was just noticing it's like that everywhere ...  southern Lakes are 87 /45 type heat there...    Vegas: 100 / 14 

 

i'm like ...whaaa -   wow.   Chapped lips in summer i guess

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i was just noticing it's like that everywhere ... southern Lakes are 87 /45 type heat there... Vegas: 100 / 14

i'm like ...whaaa - wow. Chapped lips in summer i guess

Yeah, just crazy to go from a dew of 56F to sub-freezing a couple hours later this time of year. Usually we see that 15% RH in like March/April heat with red flags flying, but not after full leaf out, at least here in the northeast.

With clear and calm already setting up, we should plummet as soon as the sunsets...like where it's 80F and then 90 minutes later it's low 60s lol.

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Already 62F here off of 81F.

 

Yeah MVL just came in with 62F about 10 minutes ago for the 0054z observations.  19F drop in 2 hours.  Instant air conditioning, haha.

 

We did get warm this afternoon.  MVL hit 84F and looks like the PWS's around the area were in that 81-84F range at under 1,000ft.  I will say, with full sunshine and the strong sun angle, even with low dews temps in that range feel plenty "summery".

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Galveston had an 89/80 this afternoon. They're more sultry than EYW sometimes.

I was just in Kew West last week. It had been 6 years since my last visit, kinda forgot just how humid it gets there. One of the days was 88 to 90 with an 80 degree dewpoint, just sitting under a palm tree caused massive sweating. Then I come back to this weather, such a shock to the system.
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Wow...

BTV 87/31 with 15% RH. That's some dry air, western US stuff. Looks like 30F was the lowest dew this afternoon.

What causes that? Mixing? Their dew was 56F at 12pm, and 30F at 3pm.

 

Pretty much.

 

NAM was forecasting a little moist layer around 850 that must've been erased during the afternoon. So you end up mixing down dews from 750 mb around -1.

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The heat and high dews may never make it North of I-90 in New England this summer. Run the GEFS and CFS to the end and see for yourself. The persistence is going to likely carry through mid July or much, much later. Probably will be just "one" real hot period ending with one significant severe event for the whole entire upcoming summer. Fairly confident in this opinion. This may wait until well after the fourth. Like 7/20 or later, then quite cool persistence towards late summer again. This will likely be a 7-10 day summer for New England going forward with 3-5 90's left and that could be it. The trough is not going away just quite and no big ridging ever gets in. Lock this pattern through August, until possible TC or hurricane(s) alters the pattern for better or worse, who knows.

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The heat and high dews may never make it New England this summer. Run the GEFS and CFS to the end and see for yourself. The persistence is going to likely carry through mid July or much, much later. Probably will be just "one" real hot period ending with one significant severe event for the whole entire upcoming summer. Strongly confident in this opinion. This may wait until well after the fourth. Like 7/20 or later, then quite cool persistence late summer. This will be a 7-10 day summer for New England going forward with 3-5 90's left and that's it.

 

I may win Powerball, too.  I think everyone should expect some dose of it for at least a few days.  Hell tomorrow's mid-80's are pretty damn hot.

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The heat and high dews may never make it North of I-90 in New England this summer. Run the GEFS and CFS to the end and see for yourself. The persistence is going to likely carry through mid July or much, much later. Probably will be just "one" real hot period ending with one significant severe event for the whole entire upcoming summer. Fairly confident in this opinion. This may wait until well after the fourth. Like 7/20 or later, then quite cool persistence towards late summer again. This will likely be a 7-10 day summer for New England going forward with 3-5 90's left and that could be it. The trough is not going away just quite and no big ridging ever gets in. Lock this pattern through August, until possible TC or hurricane(s) alters the pattern for better or worse, who knows.

This is like people cancelling winter on 12/19. The dews will come.
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Maybe that will create better luck. Not sure I can do it from my phone though b/c I don't know how to do the copyright symbol from the phone

I get the severe weather fetish.. I really do. What I don't get is why you would want month's of high dew weather where you live for the prospect of a handful of events in your area. You can drive a relatively short distance South and chase, while coming home to comfortable weather where you don't sweat taking out the garbage to the curb. Save some money on AC also. Risk/reward percentage just doesn't lean in your favor for severe in SNE so why not embrace DIT (Dewpoint Is Tollerable)
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I get the severe weather fetish.. I really do. What I don't get is why you would want month's of high dew weather where you live for the prospect of a handful of events in your area. You can drive a relatively short distance South and chase, while coming home to comfortable weather where you don't sweat taking out the garbage to the curb. Save some money on AC also. Risk/reward percentage just doesn't lean in your favor for severe in SNE so why not embrace DIT (Dewpoint Is Tollerable)

I love high dews!! They're awesome...the hot sticky feeling. I've even lived without A/C. For years I never had A/C and my bedroom would be about 90F during the summer. However, when I got my apartment and my ex-girlfriend moved in we had to get an A/C but high dews are great...hot, sticky, and you work outside all day and get all sticky then go home and shower and the feeling is amazing

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