Typhoon Tip Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 re the closed low... it's been an awesomely tedious saga all week ...the perfect venture in fulfilling nerdly neurotic obsession, but ... it really appears to me it is more the n-stream bullying the larger scaled pattern along that is the culprit in protecting our area from the season's first installment of opening the continental rotisserie oven door; not the closed low. the 12z GFS and the 00z Euro are probably on top of matters having it close too far S to really impact us, and then also opening up as the mid west trough migrates through...kicking it then too far E as well. i don't think we'll be hearing much from that. so all told, the Euro was too aggressive ( most likely) and the GFS was not aggressive enough - so somewhere in between .. as an afterthought... it's interesting that the llv baroclinic wave that first is either developed or captured by that ... then moves W at that latitude all the way from S of Bermuda to east of Hatteras before lifting out to the NE. later in the year that might be instant hybrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 anyone else notice the Bahama Blue pattern popping up in recent GFS ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 a retrograding atlantic ridge has been showing up on the euro too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Just the pattern we don't want in late August for a possible close encounter w/ a major. Get ready for high dews, if you like it or not in 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 a retrograding atlantic ridge has been showing up on the euro too funny you mentioned that ... what i've been toying with is this idea that we get our hottest dose(s) of the summer should that occur and 'link' up with the semi-permanent ridge node centered SW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Just the pattern we don't want in late August for a possible close encounter w/ a major. Get ready for high dews, if you like it or not in 7-10 days. it's true actually .. i've often thought in years past, whenever a BB pattern set up ... oh, imagine if a 'cane got sucked up ... but, there never ever seems to be one when a BB pattern sets up. i don't know if it is purely a numbers game? or if perhaps there is something intrinsic about the circulaton medium overall that is hostile to TCs and therefore ... one is less likely to be born into that senaro et al. who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Seems.like typical July pattern, enjoy the beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 mmm we're moated off from a warm environ that exists between coast though - it's playing with fire (pun most certainly intended). Kansas has 90 to 100 heat every day of the Euro. ...meanwhile, there are two large ridge nodes, one west ..one east over the atlantic that are pressing 600dm. that's not exactly normal for any warm month. in fact, even this Euro run plays around with a BB pattern and shows front retrogression with deep latitude transport moving into our region at the tail end of the run. ...pretty much makes all guidance. point being, i don't think this larger picture reality should make one feel very confident about typology ... we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 mmm we're moated off from a warm environ that exists between coast though - it's playing with fire (pun most certainly intended). Kansas has 90 to 100 heat every day of the Euro. ...meanwhile, there are two large ridge nodes, one west ..one east over the atlantic that are pressing 600dm. that's not exactly normal for any warm month. in fact, even this Euro run plays around with a BB pattern and shows front retrogression with deep latitude transport moving into our region at the tail end of the run. ...pretty much makes all guidance. point being, i don't think this larger picture reality should make one feel very confident about typology ... we'll see. enjoy the beach, its July it gets hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Yes. Though I should point out that our normals are recalculated every 30 years, so anything before 1981 would be irrelevant in our average temps (and once we reach 2020, anything before 1991 becomes irrelevant in our departures). Given this, I'd expect a current bias of around +0.3F if we are going on the backround warming trend in our region of roughly 0.2F per decade. I'm surprised they do a recalculation every 30 years. In this day and age, they should simply replace the oldest with the newest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 I'm surprised they do a recalculation every 30 years. In this day and age, they should simply replace the oldest with the newest. Well it's sort of like a 30yr period updated every 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Well it's sort of like a 30yr period updated every 10 years. Gotcha. Since the data's collected daily, maintaining a rolling 30-year average only makes sense. Of course, since the changes are so small, the decadal method isn't showing readings that should be tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Gotcha. Since the data's collected daily, maintaining a rolling 30-year average only makes sense. Of course, since the changes are so small, the decadal method isn't showing readings that should be tossed. I don't think it's a rolling average. Just a 30yr average that is updated every 10yrs from previous 30yr temps. The temps before 1981 are not involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 DOOdle doodle dewless summer continues, wow wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 DOOdle doodle dewless summer continues, wow wowThe west is just baking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Dews come up Monday and Tuesday, but yeah...big cooloff after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Dews come up Monday and Tuesday, but yeah...big cooloff after. Yea Tuesday early then another great frontal cleanout of the muck. Best weather in the nation. Man o man excellent vacation weather . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 The west is just baking Rocking the COC days here. I wish I was camping. Lake is nice and warm too. Swimming by day fires by night, comfortable sleeping, no AC's humming anywhere. New England is where its at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Rocking the COC days here. I wish I was camping. Lake is nice and warm too. Swimming by day fires by night, comfortable sleeping, no AC's humming anywhere. New England is where its atYeah you guys have gotten awesome weather. We've been on the edge here some days awesome some days wtf but majority of the time its been awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Yea Tuesday early then another great frontal cleanout of the muck. Best weather in the nation. Man o man excellent vacation weather . We Vaca. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 hehhh.. i think we may be a bit quick here in biting into significant cool downs in the latter mid range on - the 00z runs may have 'flavored' the appeal that way, and i saw that, but the previous 12z cycle didn't, and though the tele's are entering the poorer correlation time of year, they actually support opportunity to go the other direction pretty much beginning any time during this next week. it looks to me like the gfs is overdoing the n-stream like it always does, while the euro runs home to bias-mommy with too much digging ... and the net result 'looks' like model agreement but may be merely coincidental because of that. we'll see. if the tele's didn't show a solid flip into positive domain space with the NAO, while a feeble PNA correlation (still) deeps into -2 SD territory.. i'd be less inclined to make this word of caution. which is all it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 We Vaca. Nice bro, enjoy the down time, certainly great weather to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Rocking the COC days here. I wish I was camping. Lake is nice and warm too. Swimming by day fires by night, comfortable sleeping, no AC's humming anywhere. New England is where its at I think you'll catch the sound of a faint hum from a house on a knoll in Tolland. At night you can see the silhouette of a man through the window pacing back and forth in the muttering something about installations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Dews come up Monday and Tuesday, but yeah...big cooloff after. Perfect pattern...a tickle and taste of summer HHH for two days then a nice cool down. NWS has 87-90F here both Sun/Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Perfect pattern...a tickle and taste of summer HHH for two days then a nice cool down. NWS has 87-90F here both Sun/Mon. Good over the top warmth there. Honestly though....how can anyone not like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 More COC than Wiz's hot tub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Honestly though....how can anyone not like this? Because chilly evenings and nights suck, gardens grow poorly, and water stays frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Because chilly evenings and nights suck, gardens grow poorly, and water stays frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Because chilly evenings and nights suck, gardens grow poorly, and water stays frigid. Pool is up to 74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 18, 2016 Share Posted June 18, 2016 Good over the top warmth there. Honestly though....how can anyone not like this? Smiles everywhere except the Mastiff and the Bates Hotel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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