weathafella Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Through 6/15/16: BOS: +0.7 BDL: +0.2 PVD: +1.0 ORH: -0.5 Methinks by months end we'll increase the warm departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 I like your thought about the "summer of the phantom ridge" LOL...just never materializes even in the face of good model agreement 7-10 days out. It will eventually...but man...persistence FTW. seriously ... it's been hot for like ... 2 straight months on D6.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 My kind of summer you guys realize, don't you ... that you just incurred the inferno wrath with that discussion - nice goin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 you know .. that could actually a fun pattern for 2 or 3 days if the ensemble mean of the GEFs panned out... it would mean SW flow daily thunder probably... i could deal with that. man, i don't think i've seen a good thunderstorm in 4 years. seriously... i'm always where they are not .. 'course, stands to reason living in SNE - ha! seriously though, that looks like a thundery chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 It looks like the GFS manages to ruin our severe threat with that annoying cut-off low to our south on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Through 6/15/16: BOS: +0.7 BDL: +0.2 PVD: +1.0 ORH: -0.5 Methinks by months end we'll increase the warm departures. Agreed. ORH getting to +1.0 or so would it shock me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 This is going to be a complete shut out summer for heat. The ensembles show relentless troughing over SE Canada for the next few weeks. If you are Northeast of NYC the hottest day had passed already in likelyhood. The persistence is not going to change until likely very late summer when it is too little too late. I fully expect this folks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 This is going to be a complete shut out summer for heat. The ensembles show relentless troughing over SE Canada for the next few weeks. If you are Northeast of NYC the hottest day had passed already in likelyhood. The persistence is not going to change until likely very late summer when it is too little too late. I fully expect this folks.... Way too early to make that kind of call with such confidence. I'm not sure there's any real evidence that we're going to be seeing this SE Canada trough in mid-July. There's plenty of time for a big heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Well for those with lawns and gardens...crappy pattern with no rain. Kind of a bummer....but at least weather is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 This is going to be a complete shut out summer for heat. The ensembles show relentless troughing over SE Canada for the next few weeks. If you are Northeast of NYC the hottest day had passed already in likelyhood. The persistence is not going to change until likely very late summer when it is too little too late. I fully expect this folks.... This is going to be a complete shut out summer for heat. The ensembles show relentless troughing over SE Canada for the next few weeks. If you are Northeast of NYC the hottest day had passed already in likelyhood. The persistence is not going to change until likely very late summer when it is too little too late. I fully expect this folks.... The 12Z/16 gefs had the 582 height line near the Canadian border. A little weakness in the height field suggests e could have warm humid thundery wx. You're making it sound like way below is on tap. In fact a post of yours about 10 days ago locked in 50s/60s this week. The past 3 days have been 80+ in the Boston area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 This is going to be a complete shut out summer for heat. The ensembles show relentless troughing over SE Canada for the next few weeks. If you are Northeast of NYC the hottest day had passed already in likelyhood. The persistence is not going to change until likely very late summer when it is too little too late. I fully expect this folks.... Similar to cancelling winter on December 16th...this is a ridiculous post. We could have our hottest day of the season on Monday up this way. Point and click shows 85F for Sunday and 87F for Monday and zone forecast calls for mid-80s both Sunday and Monday. Sunday Through Monday...Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 80s. Lows in the upper 50s. All it will take is for part of that heat in the middle of the country to break northeast for a couple days and we'll roast. It may not be all the the time, but to completely rule out the chance of a few brief interludes of true torch is like fully expecting no snow in January and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Through 6/15/16: BOS: +0.7 BDL: +0.2 PVD: +1.0 ORH: -0.5 Methinks by months end we'll increase the warm departures. Interesting that even with the cold troughs we've had that temps are sneaking above normal down there along the coastal plain and lower elevations. We are around -2F up here through the 15th (-1.7F MVL, -2.4F MPV, -2.2F Mansfield). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 This summer sucks...period. There's like 4-weeks left before climo wise severe chances go way down. Unfooking believable...haven't had crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 This summer sucks...period. There's like 4-weeks left before climo wise severe chances go way down. Unfooking believable...haven't had crap. 11 months until May 1st, start a thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 I will go ahead and lock 90+ starting on the 20th itself based on what I seewhere oh where has DIT gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 where oh where has DIT gone Unlock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 where oh where has DIT goneDoes that stand for Dewpoint Is Tollerable ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 A vacation in New Orleans in an un-air-conditioned hotel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Sunday through Tuesday will be pretty warm. Probably U80s to near 90 in spots. But then it cold down again. No signs of any prolonged 2-ply weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 1030 high and +5C 850s on the GFS late next week. That would be a couple of chilly nights for the radiators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 This is going to be a complete shut out summer for heat. The ensembles show relentless troughing over SE Canada for the next few weeks. If you are Northeast of NYC the hottest day had passed already in likelyhood. The persistence is not going to change until likely very late summer when it is too little too late. I fully expect this folks....Sounds good to me. I'd gladly take 70s and low humidity all summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Zero rain chances in a pattern like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Interesting that even with the cold troughs we've had that temps are sneaking above normal down there along the coastal plain and lower elevations. We are around -2F up here through the 15th (-1.7F MVL, -2.4F MPV, -2.2F Mansfield). Definitely a product of the generally sunny weather we've seen. Those cool CAA airmasses can still produce decently warm temps when you have sunshine near the summer solstice. We had a couple days where ORH was struggling to hit 63 or 64 while it was low 70s in the valleys and CP. We haven't had any of those rain events in June where we get back to back highs of like 53 and 57 or something. So it's hard to rack up large negative departures without those. We should also remember that summer sees lower departure spreads anyway. Like a +2 in June is prob like +5 in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Zero rain chances in a pattern like this. Reservoirs and wells still in good shape I was actually thinking of running the sprinkler today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Definitely a product of the generally sunny weather we've seen. Those cool CAA airmasses can still produce decently warm temps when you have sunshine near the summer solstice. We had a couple days where ORH was struggling to hit 63 or 64 while it was low 70s in the valleys and CP. We haven't had any of those rain events in June where we get back to back highs of like 53 and 57 or something. So it's hard to rack up large negative departures without those. We should also remember that summer sees lower departure spreads anyway. Like a +2 in June is prob like +5 in January. Sunny certainly helps the most .. Dailies are obviously controlled, first, by immediate system impacts. but, there is some factorization in there with the back ground climate mode being in a state of warming flux, everywhere... however discrete that is. That's base-line (if not entirely intuitive, really) that if the Global numbers continue to warm in the means, any given location should barrow probability in that regard. It's of course possible that one area could be picked-on interminably by the patterns et al as a cool off-set, and actually, the last three years have proven so for eastern N/A. If we look over that time span at the monthly press-releases from NASA ... the graphic depictions clearly show the "blue" over said region the majority of months. but even so, it just means that in a matter of decimals ... a sunny day now is probably warmer that it was in 1888 ... but we're talking decimals. Still, i've noticed that "cool" patterns (save extreme scenarios like Feb 16 mo ago - isn't that amazing? that huge Febr was already 16 months ago... wow) seems to under perform in the modern era. interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Sunny certainly helps the most .. Dailies are obviously controlled, first, by immediate system impacts. but, there is some factorization in there with the back ground climate mode being in a state of warming flux, everywhere... however discrete that is. That's base-line (if not entirely intuitive, really) that if the Global numbers continue to warm in the means, any given location should barrow probability in that regard. It's of course possible that one area could be picked-on interminably by the patterns et al as a cool off-set, and actually, the last three years have proven so for eastern N/A. If we look over that time span at the monthly press-releases from NASA ... the graphic depictions clearly show the "blue" over said region the majority of months. but even so, it just means that in a matter of decimals ... a sunny day now is probably warmer that it was in 1888 ... but we're talking decimals. Still, i've noticed that "cool" patterns (save extreme scenarios like Feb 16 mo ago - isn't that amazing? that huge Febr was already 16 months ago... wow) seems to under perform in the modern era. interesting. Yes. Though I should point out that our normals are recalculated every 30 years, so anything before 1981 would be irrelevant in our average temps (and once we reach 2020, anything before 1991 becomes irrelevant in our departures). Given this, I'd expect a current bias of around +0.3F if we are going on the backround warming trend in our region of roughly 0.2F per decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Yes. Though I should point out that our normals are recalculated every 30 years, so anything before 1981 would be irrelevant in our average temps (and once we reach 2020, anything before 1991 becomes irrelevant in our departures). Given this, I'd expect a current bias of around +0.3F if we are going on the backround warming trend in our region of roughly 0.2F per decade. Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 11 months until May 1st, start a thread! No more May threads. Just may as well count down to fall. WTF is DIT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 No more May threads. Just may as well count down to fall. WTF is DIT? you may want to pay attention to 60 - 90 hours or so... the flow temporarily sets up 'ring-of-fire' look, and the models have occasional week convectively induce meso-beta scaled v-maxes tarnishing the ridge rim up there along the Can board through southern Ontario into central NE, as it is. it's not impossible given that look that MCS activity rips along through that flow in there. also, there is going to be some subtle steeping of the llv gradient and squeezing the SW llv wind into an inflow circuit as the trough in the upper mw begins to 'dent' the flow some. there's probably not much hope in operational x,y,z model outright plotting one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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