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June Pattern Discussion


CapturedNature

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Damage In Tolland, on 10 Jun 2016 - 3:56 PM, said:

Once we heat up.. Any cooling is only going to get to normal ..look at source regions. You guys can hide and downplay all you want. The nation and Canada is furnaced. This summer could easily rival some of our all time hottest.

 

And your basis for this 3 month forecast is what exactly?

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It's not an inferno but probably warm to hot verbatim. Maybe like 88-92?

lol yeah I liked how he worked you into the hyperbole.

It's going to get hot, it's going to be July, that's what it does...and the pattern supports it. But jeez some need to lay off the all or nothing type statements. It couldn't just be 85-90F for most away from the torch ASOS. It's gotta be sold like its 90-100F daily for all from the 20th until the -KFS kicks in around October 1st.

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lol yeah I liked how he worked you into the hyperbole.

It's going to get hot, it's going to be July, that's what it does...and the pattern supports it. But jeez some need to lay off the all or nothing type statements. It couldn't just be 85-90F for most away from the torch ASOS. It's gotta be sold like its 90-100F daily for all from the 20th until the -KFS kicks in around October 1st.

days 11_15 couldn't look any more normal.
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Like you said, summer starts after the solstice in most cases around here, and normals are getting pretty warm.

But inferno this time of year argues for like 90F hills and upper 90s valleys. Doesn't have that look.

let's enjoy next week, wow what beautiful days of 70s dews low. Even the warming will feel fantastic. Summer comes on schedule and will be enjoyable with NW flow instead of manky MA air. Beach days approach ,love it
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let's enjoy next week, wow what beautiful days of 70s dews low. Even the warming will feel fantastic. Summer comes on schedule and will be enjoyable with NW flow instead of manky MA air. Beach days approach ,love it

Yeah it obviously gets hotter but looking at say the GFS for the 21st, 22nd, 23rd gives these temps at 00z (only 00/12z so 00z/8pm is best I can find)...add a few degrees for afternoon highs but overall nothing exceptional.

21st

post-352-0-82024200-1465592223_thumb.png

22nd

post-352-0-04490300-1465593724_thumb.png

23rd

post-352-0-68925500-1465593774_thumb.png

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It's not an inferno but probably warm to hot verbatim. Maybe like 88-92?

 

about right - yeah.  i mentioned that back on post 260, and it jives with the GEFs teleconnector suggestion for course of least regret. 

 

there is no way (people) to 'look forward to' extremes beyond D5 ...really.  but, for the sake of discussion, day 6 to 10 and beyond has too much intrinsic variability that cannot be predicted at extended leads and in order for "extreme" scenarios, those have to be. 

 

hence is the dilemma in trying to think big way out in time, whether cold or hot, big storm of not. all we can really do is figure for some odds in or out of favor of anomalies one way or the other and leave it at that.  

 

having said that, even so...there really isn't much to be alarmed about for big heat.   things can certainly change - for now, i think what scott said is fine. 

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Like you said, summer starts after the solstice in most cases around here, and normals are getting pretty warm.

But inferno this time of year argues for like 90F hills and upper 90s valleys. Doesn't have that look.

 

I agree.  Nothing atypical about it. 

 

The thing I find funny is that by merely disagreeing with a forecast of 80s/90s forever means you're calling for cooler weather which no one is.  We're also talking about 240hr forecasts which no one ever takes verbatim.  I'm not saying it won't be warm but if it is, it is late June and no one will be surprised.  No one wants it, but no ones going to be surprised.

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I want it. Bring on 95F and then brief cool downs into the 40s.

 

I'm all for the heat and humidity in short bursts during the summer...I've got about a 72 hour limit though on the hot and heavy dews.  I will say I've enjoyed the heat a bit more as I get older, back in my teens I hated it with a passion living in the Hudson Valley.  In the hotter zone of air in that area.  Up here it never lasts all that long.  It really does find ways to cool down, and work is often at significant elevations, so can usually find ways to escape it to some degree.  I've also never lived right next to a nice waterway with crystal clear water and 4-5 foot deep swimming holes.  Your surroundings can definitely influence your preference for weather, or at least enjoy-ability.

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I want it. Bring on 95F and then brief cool downs into the 40s.

 

I'm all for periods of hot/humid weather in the summer but prefer it to average on the cooler side.  People want to do things outdoors and I hate listening to people complain about the humidity when it is hot/humid.

 

Still not seeing anything exceptionally hot after the 20th. 

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Girlfriends mom just said it cracked 90 at her house in Central NJ and with the humidity its disgusting outside. Quite a temperature gradient.

image.jpg

lol that's fascinating...it's 55F up here.

Amazing it's 83F at BGM at 1,600ft (decent elevation and they are a cold ASOS location) while its 60F at ALB.

Look at the expanse of that heat...somewhere DIT is crying.

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lol that's fascinating...it's 55F up here.

Amazing it's 83F at BGM at 1,600ft (decent elevation and they are a cold ASOS location) while its 60F at ALB.

Look at the expanse of that heat...somewhere DIT is crying.

 

She lives just outside Newark and its like a whole different micro climate down there in the summer. I spend a lot of time down that way visiting in the summer and dread going there in July/August. I have been down there in July  were you literally couldn't breathe outside it was that gross. You are forced inside in the A/C just to breathe. lol

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She lives just outside Newark and its like a whole different micro climate down there in the summer. I spend a lot of time down that way visiting in the summer and dread going there in July/August. I have been down there in July were you literally couldn't breathe outside it was that gross. You are forced inside in the A/C just to breathe. lol

The bolded right there is why very hot and humid is fairly useless for outdoor recreation unless it involves water haha.

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I'm all for periods of hot/humid weather in the summer but prefer it to average on the cooler side.  People want to do things outdoors and I hate listening to people complain about the humidity when it is hot/humid.

 

Still not seeing anything exceptionally hot after the 20th. 

 

mmm.  ... let's leave the door open though - and no (haha) not because it's the end of June :)

 

seriously ...the signal for a pattern change is a bit more robust in the teleconnectors and has been inching more impressive per nightly derivatives for a few days.  At this point, there is room for a heat wave in that look, ...obviously, there is no way in hell ( no pun intended..) to even begin assessing the magnitude of that.  But, the operational runs are, in entire fold, now quite open to it apparently picking up on that which is physically guiding (at least in the case of ..) the GEFs

 

It's odd pattern evolution in the details... 

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