Baroclinic Zone Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 Less than 24hrs out and models have come around to a quick but potent torrential rain threat for tomorrow across the region. Looks like initial threat will be across c/w areas before shifting e in the afternoon. Potential for 1"+ in a short timeframe which may lead to localized flooding. For those like me that have to go to a parade, joy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 I thought we were in a moderate drought? Sorry about your parade but the lawns and bushes will be thankful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 Less than 24hrs out and models have come around to a quick but potent torrential rain threat for tomorrow across the region. Looks like initial threat will be across c/w areas before shifting e in the afternoon. Potential for 1"+ in a short timeframe which may lead to localized flooding. For those like me that have to go to a parade, joy.... I'm excited to be coaching Monday at the Cape... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 I'm pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 12Z finally brings some good rain up here ins C NH. NAM was further SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 I'm not sure I see where this is coming from frankly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 I'm not sure I see where this is coming from frankly. Elaborate in standard Tip fashion, por favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 Elaborate in standard Tip fashion, por favor. well ... yes and no. heh, I just didn't want to poo the idea altogether. Hence "not sure" granted, we have a (never should have been) designated tropical storm (which was only done out of PR protocols in that it was nearing land) coming ashore and apparently moving up around the western periphery of the decaying western Atlantic ridge.. but it seems it would be more convective than organized due to it being so weak already, and being absorbed into the pressure pattern entirely well before getting up here ... pwats should increase and any rainfall should be enhanced, but I don't (imho) think it is worth any enhanced wording. 'course, I thought today's BD was a bit over cooked in the NAM and it exceedingly perfectly nailed it, too - so... Noticing the NAM's T1 at Logan is up to 24 C, which is good for about 27 or 28 in the 2-meter, which is around 83 and probably over 72 dps so backyard CU could dump an inch in that .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 Thanks, Tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 Some twitter mets need to get a grip. Does every storm with a few lightning strikes need to be called 'strong'? Pea sized hail?! God lord almighty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 Thanks, Tip. There is a flood threat. Tip just doesn't think it was a TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 29, 2016 Author Share Posted May 29, 2016 .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...* Localized flash flooding Memorial Day, esp near S Coast * Few storms possible Monday afternoon, mainly in W MA Although confidence in the exact location remains low, pattern favors locally heavy rainfall in parts of SNE Memorial Day due to remnants of tropical system combined with approaching front and strong low level jet offshore. Precipitable water values will climb to around 2 inches, which as noted previously is near record high levels for this time of year. This scenario could bring rainfall rates as high as 2-3 inches per hour in a few locations, possibly resulting in rapid urban flooding. 12z models and ensembles are showing greater potential for this to occur near the South Coast. However, it is likely that model resolution is not resolving these small-scale features very well at this time frame, so the location projected by the models may not be accurate. It is possible that axis of heavier rainfall sets up closer to northeast CT, Providence, and Boston or even ends up farther offshore south of Cape Cod and the Islands. We probably won`t know for sure until later tonight when we get within 12 hours of the heaviest rain. As a result, we will hold off on issuing any Flash Flood Watches at this time, since confidence is low. It does appear that the showers will end up focusing across southeast New England Monday afternoon, meaning there may be some drying (and brief clearing) across the interior. Should that occur, it`s possible that a few thunderstorms could reach western MA by evening. However, the threat for severe weather looks minimal given weak instability and shear expected to be in place. Cold front will move through the region Monday night, pushing any remaining showers offshore and ushering some drier air into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 There is a flood threat. Tip just doesn't think it was a TC. I don't think so actually - ... not above the background scale of convection, which can pond road ways and bank-full smaller/quick responder drain basins and streams any time. There's nothing special or widespread enough of a threat - but ... meh, just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 There is a flood threat. Tip just doesn't think it was a TC. Oh I know, there's never been a flood threat that I wasn't all over (and they're not exactly hard to come by here), I just enjoy the write ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...* Localized flash flooding Memorial Day, esp near S Coast * Few storms possible Monday afternoon, mainly in W MA Although confidence in the exact location remains low, pattern favors locally heavy rainfall in parts of SNE Memorial Day due to remnants of tropical system combined with approaching front and strong low level jet offshore. Precipitable water values will climb to around 2 inches, which as noted previously is near record high levels for this time of year. This scenario could bring rainfall rates as high as 2-3 inches per hour in a few locations, possibly resulting in rapid urban flooding. 12z models and ensembles are showing greater potential for this to occur near the South Coast. However, it is likely that model resolution is not resolving these small-scale features very well at this time frame, so the location projected by the models may not be accurate. It is possible that axis of heavier rainfall sets up closer to northeast CT, Providence, and Boston or even ends up farther offshore south of Cape Cod and the Islands. We probably won`t know for sure until later tonight when we get within 12 hours of the heaviest rain. As a result, we will hold off on issuing any Flash Flood Watches at this time, since confidence is low. It does appear that the showers will end up focusing across southeast New England Monday afternoon, meaning there may be some drying (and brief clearing) across the interior. Should that occur, it`s possible that a few thunderstorms could reach western MA by evening. However, the threat for severe weather looks minimal given weak instability and shear expected to be in place. Cold front will move through the region Monday night, pushing any remaining showers offshore and ushering some drier air into SNE. heh, we'll see I guess. They do say low confidence and not issuing ... In defense of it there is a huge PWAT plume poised to move up over the region as the remnants of thing gets tangled up in the barotropic region out ahead of the cold front over the Lakes. so anything cells that do rain fall through that column could tint blue in their rain shafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 "Tint blue in their rain shafts"....what in the world does that mean Tip? Does heavy rain have a blue-ish color? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 29, 2016 Author Share Posted May 29, 2016 heh, we'll see I guess. They do say low confidence and not issuing ... In defense of it there is a huge PWAT plume poised to move up over the region as the remnants of thing gets tangled up in the barotropic region out ahead of the cold front over the Lakes. so anything cells that do rain fall through that column could tint blue in their rain shafts. In their AM AFD they mentioned PWATs hitting record levels in the area for the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 Enough to cancel area Memorial Day parades. For that I am selfishly thankful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 In their AM AFD they mentioned PWATs hitting record levels in the area for the time of year. GW ...hahaha yeah, the more I look at this, I suppose it's ok. what I don't like is the lack of trigger for widespread. but it doesn't have to be widespread to fill up some hapless family's cellar. heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 "Tint blue in their rain shafts"....what in the world does that mean Tip? Does heavy rain have a blue-ish color? you're only a fan of weather, then do you know why tornadic thunderstorms look green in their underbellies - so it is said? the same reason why the ocean looks green-blue. huge water content suspended in cloud splits out the other areas of the spectrum and the greens and blues still get through. right where that seam between where the gray wall of a super dense rain shaft edges with the outflow cloud ... that region tints blue/green in very high water content scenarios - be it severe updrafts suspending or massive pwats...etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 Going to western MA tomorrow to chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 Going to western MA tomorrow to chase um ...why? actually, humid scud tendrils tangled with tree tops up along the climbs of the ridge lines - worth some photo ops I suppose. seriously, what are you thinking you're going to see. Low LCLer's ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 um ...why? actually, humid scud tendrils tangled with tree tops up along the climbs of the ridge lines - worth some photo ops I suppose. seriously, what are you thinking you're going to see. Low LCLer's ? Have to go after something. This has been ridiculous. After tomorrow the next threat could be Friday or Saturday out across PA maybe but my friend and I could very well get shut out in which I'll flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 GW ...hahaha yeah, the more I look at this, I suppose it's ok. what I don't like is the lack of trigger for widespread. but it doesn't have to be widespread to fill up some hapless family's cellar. heh. I think we're both on the same page. I think there is a flood threat. Never mentioned anything widespread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted May 30, 2016 Author Share Posted May 30, 2016 Enough to cancel area Memorial Day parades. For that I am selfishly thankful yup. Taunton parade cancelled. Phew.... Bring on the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 30, 2016 Share Posted May 30, 2016 You're going to have disappointed posters at the end of this one. Drink coming, but might not be as much as some need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 30, 2016 Share Posted May 30, 2016 Current trajectory of the rain suggests 1-1.50" of rain for BOS I'll guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 30, 2016 Share Posted May 30, 2016 I already want to take the under after looking at the models at home. I guess around an inch is fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 30, 2016 Share Posted May 30, 2016 Disappointing. We haven't had a big precip event up here in awhile. Congrats SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 30, 2016 Share Posted May 30, 2016 Nice drink for BOS and PVD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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