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June 2016 General Discussion


Hoosier

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Euro has about a 40 degree difference for highs on Sunday in Illinois.  Shows upper 50s for Geos, and upper 90s west of Springfield IL. 

 

I'll take the cooler side.

Only 59° here at noon. Feels like September. Looking at high 40s tonight I think.

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getting increasingly worried (as if often the case) that convection keeps the boundary shunted to my south but the general idea still looks good.

 

GFS still consistent with a nice convective bullseye over the metro

 

Thursday night still looks like our first shot at a classic SE moving backing building/training MCS event

 

 

:weenie:

 

gfs_apcpn_us_52.png

 

Yeah this is a bit tricky to forecast right now.  GFS shows convection from Wed night rolling through southern WI/northern IL Thursday morning.  A lot depends on how robust that is, and if it too wants to backbuild.  The LLJ will be in a good position to regenerate the ongoing convection during the day Thursday.  Going to be entertaining to watch and see how all this evolves.  

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Last 3 days had thunderstorms forecast but just got a thunder shower on Sunday that was pretty weak and then yesterday had two very brief sprinkles that lasted a few seconds each. One was at the crack of dawn and the other at 4:00 pm. Every time thunderstorms are forecast, we end up with nothing and the ones near the end of May were missing me to the south...

 

Today and tomorrow is the exact opposite of what I look forward to in June. Some sun is peaking out however during the past few minutes.

 

00z Euro really shortened the heat wave compared to previous runs.  Brings down a powerhouse backdoor cold front down later in the weekend.  Would only be 3 90+ days here instead of what was looking like 5+.  

New 12z Euro even shorter in duration with the heat.  Now only Fri and Sat at 90+.  Michigan never even gets into the main body of the heat before the backdoor front crashes down.  Looking like a pretty puny heat wave for June standards.  

 

Looks like that trip to the deep south is coming closer than I thought :whistle: .

 

46 degrees at 2:30 in the afternoon.

 

:yikes:

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Reached the low 70s here with nearly full sun and light breeze.  Great day to mow and burn the brush pile. 

 

Got 94/95 in the point for Fri/Sat.  Sun been lowered about 10 degrees down to 81.

 

EDIT:  Just noticed the weather station reached 81 degrees.  Nice temp spike as the brush pile was burning 15ft away lol.  

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GFS continues to dive the front south through the area Saturday while the GEM and Euro hold the front well to my north.  Of course, the euro would mean 90s through Monday.

 

The GFS and Euro are very different next week as well.  The GFS sweeps a front through early in the week and has an extended dry period following.  The euro hangs the front up just to the south and then brings a good chunk of energy in from the southwest and slowly moves a stormy system across the region midweek.

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