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June 2016 General Discussion


Hoosier

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To be fair, I could say the same about this past winter (as much as you disliked it). :P

 

Along your same line of reasoning, it was a lot closer to a normal winter around here than 2013-2014. 

 

This past winter had the warmest December on record, it wasn't close to normal at all.

 

  I don't expect 2013-2014. 

 

It might end up being the best winter of my life. It was arguably the best winter of my fathers life and he is 61. Well, he hated it.

 

My point was that no one should complain about weather that is +/- a degree or two of normal. You have the right to complain about 2013-2014 winter, I don't blame you.

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00z Euro really shortened the heat wave compared to previous runs.  Brings down a powerhouse backdoor cold front down later in the weekend.  Would only be 3 90+ days here instead of what was looking like 5+.  

 

New 12z Euro even shorter in duration with the heat.  Now only Fri and Sat at 90+.  Michigan never even gets into the main body of the heat before the backdoor front crashes down.  Looking like a pretty puny heat wave for June standards.  

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The morning disco contained some words I haven't seen in a while: humidity, heat advisory, tropical, MCS, derecho.

Sweet.

Whose disco?

 

New 12z Euro even shorter in duration with the heat.  Now only Fri and Sat at 90+.  Michigan never even gets into the main body of the heat before the backdoor front crashes down.  Looking like a pretty puny heat wave for June standards.  

 
Better than nothing.
 
Really impressed with SPC's day 6 outlook wording. GFS looks pretty nasty, too.
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New 12z Euro even shorter in duration with the heat.  Now only Fri and Sat at 90+.  Michigan never even gets into the main body of the heat before the backdoor front crashes down.  Looking like a pretty puny heat wave for June standards.  

 

"What a surprise!!!" said no one ever. :arrowhead:

 

And things will probably continue to go downhill from here. The boundary will end up setting up even further SW than what the models are progging currently as the convection gets going. 

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Anyone eyeing up Thursday as a potential severe event in WI/IL?

Edit: SPC went MRGL and mentioned southeastward moving sups with MCS potential as they merge. LOTs AFD mentions sups as well, but the setup hinges on whether we get the instability. They also go onto mention the possibility of a significant MCS across the Lakes Friday night. :D

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Anyone eyeing up Thursday as a potential severe event in WI/IL?

Edit: SPC went MRGL and mentioned southeastward moving sups with MCS potential as they merge. LOTs AFD mentions sups as well, but the setup hinges on whether we get the instability. They also go onto mention the possibility of a significant MCS across the Lakes Friday night. :D

 

 

looks like the first MCS will be thursday night, GFS advertising a nice right turn and decent llj

 

 

GFS has been rather consistent with an overnight MCS/convective bullseye near hoosier late thurs/early friday

 

 

Although I'd be a little concerned about a south/west shift out of the LOT cwa or just a graze job.  Would like to see stronger capping upstream to boost confidence locally.

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getting increasingly worried (as if often the case) that convection keeps the boundary shunted to my south but the general idea still looks good.

 

GFS still consistent with a nice convective bullseye over the metro

 

Thursday night still looks like our first shot at a classic SE moving backing building/training MCS event

 

 

:weenie:

 

gfs_apcpn_us_52.png

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New 12z Euro even shorter in duration with the heat.  Now only Fri and Sat at 90+.  Michigan never even gets into the main body of the heat before the backdoor front crashes down.  Looking like a pretty puny heat wave for June standards.  

 

Models continue to crash the front southward more quickly.  The 12z GFS now brings it through Saturday evening.  I'm hoping we can get a storm cluster or two sometime Thursday morning through the weekend.

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