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June 2016 General Discussion


Hoosier

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The RAP/HRRR warm bias appears to be at work again tomorrow. I'll take the under on 90F at 10 am.

 

Even the GGEM and NAM differ by several degrees.

 

It's all going to come down to mixing depths (GGEM holds dews in the 60s until late afternoon while the NAM lowers then down to around 50*F), though locally, I'm leaning towards the warmer guidance with the aid of downsloping. 

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Nice pic MichSnowfreak. Yeah I really hope those Michigan peeps can cash in on some desperately needed rainfall. The corn around these parts is way ahead of schedule, I'm sure frequent rainfall, sunshine, and heat is aiding to the growth right now.

El Niño is officially dead, right now we remain neutral, wonder when La Niña begins to take over, August?

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Weekend warmth replaced with northerly winds today.  Great sleeping and hiking weather!

 

Monday

Scattered showers, mainly between 9am and 4pm. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 51 by 5pm. Northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday Night

Isolated showers before 8pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 44. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 67. North wind 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night

Clear, with a low around 45. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

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the days of death ridges building far enough east for us to torch are over

 

 

Why?

 

 

I don't buy this, I know we have been in perpetual NW flow but the pattern has changed, hell the ridge just noses in this weekend and we have 3 days of 90 degree weather and it is only June.

 

Plus if you believe the GFS then you believe in days of cutoff spinning in the east. Why would that be more believable than days of ridging in the summer.

 

 

nailed it

 

gfs_T2m_us_28.png

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nailed it

 

gfs_T2m_us_28.png

Don't start turning into Nik with the day 7 and beyond projections... Also I can spin it the other way, beyond this it gets death ridgy, you are just choosing the one time where it isn't out of 16 days... This is literally the only day that the ridge isn't being flexed into the region.

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I'll pound the over and say 73.

 

 

I don't know.  Progged 925 mb temps are around 11-12C so assuming they aren't warmer, I think that's going to be tough.  I'm thinking 70 or 71 in a best case scenario with a real shot at staying in the 60s.

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