CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 The irony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This is nothing like Sandy. It'll be a weak TD if that as it spends days over land. Way too much hype Where is all this hype? I haven't seen or heard much myself as fast as hype goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 i think there should be more hype than there currently is in NJ honestly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i think there should be more hype than there currently is in NJ honestly Most of the models are painting a pretty bad situation for the jersey shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 11 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i think there should be more hype than there currently is in NJ honestly This. If the models continue to paint a bad scenario for the weekend for our area (NJ) the hype will eventually come. But considering its also Labor Day weekend and the shore areas areas are expected to be packed a bit more lead time then usual warning the public of the potential would be prudent. I was supposed to spend Saturday afternoon into Sunday in Atlantic City but I will most likely be canceling my plans later tomorrow or Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Well sure the JS will have some winds and rain.. But nothing that's going to be worse than your typical nor Easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well sure the JS will have some winds and rain.. But nothing that's going to be worse than your typical nor Easter Euro was putting gusts to 80 knots on NJ beaches. 50-60 south shore of LI. That's not a typical nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 So Sunday looks to be going down the crapper. weve had so little rain this summer, but when I actually could use some nice weather, we rain. It's incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 17 minutes ago, Hoth said: Euro was putting gusts to 80 knots on NJ beaches. 50-60 south shore of LI. That's not a typical nor'easter. Are you sure about that? Euro had it over land so long it really weakened it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Are you sure about that? Euro had it over land so long it really weakened it It did until it reemerges into the ocean and the ULL captures it. Reinvigorates and retrogrades into the NJ coast. There are some screenshots in the NYC tropical thread with the 10m gusts. Pretty impressive, and I'd imagine a ton of attendant rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Are you sure about that? Euro had it over land so long it really weakened it I don't think you looked at the model...lol. Of course it shouldn't be hyped, but should the low stay formidable which it very well may..Two things happen. 1) strengthens a bit over warmer waters east of DelMarva. 2), gets a bit of baroclinic boost and develops strong LLJ on NW side of low, thanks to pressure gradient from high in Maine. Another thing, if this does sling back as it captures, it fits the narrative for lows that have done quite a bit of damage to the coast..especially one that might be vulnerable like NJ. The lows that retro back are ones to reckon with. Of course it's early, but I think most models right now have a pretty good hit for NJ. That's about all you can say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 I think the rain would be the bigger issue, even if the winds weaken. Storms like the one modeled drop a heinous amount...NJ really can flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 I still say it's hype. Anyway if things haven't shifted south by morning as we think .. Then it's time to get s but more serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Hurricane models now miss the whole area Ots for up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Tough to see individual models, but doesn't seem like they show any capture? That looks weird if so. It may also be an issue of how tropical models handle the hand off from tropical to extra-tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Tough to see individual models, but doesn't seem like they show any capture? That looks weird if so. It may also be an issue of how tropical models handle the hand off from tropical to extra-tropical. Did the hurricane models have a similarly difficult time with Sandy's transition? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, WaPo said: Did the hurricane models have a similarly difficult time with Sandy's transition? I thought originally they were too far east, and then too far west for last day or so? I can't recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I thought originally they were too far east, and then too far west for last day or so? I can't recall. I think they struggled during Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 998MB 60MPH storm with the 11:00 advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 This is quite the complex situation given alot has to work out perfectly for the system to take on that sort of retrograded track...not impossible but difficult. Anyways, I agree with forky that the NJ coast could see some significant impacts...perhaps even coastline a tad further north. As for us here in southern New England though I think we see no more than periods of heavy downpours with embedded thunder and some gusty winds but no significant impacts (perhaps some coastal flooding). The idea though of some strengthening off the coast is interesting though given the warm waters and if some type of baroclinic zone can setup someone is going to get nailed with rain (probably down near NJ or further south) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 From the tropical thread, click on the thread title to read the full version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 The repeated "worst case" scenarios presented in the BOX AFD are a whole lotta meh. I hope I can muster a little measurable rain to keep the lawn lush. Mild night--65.3 for the low so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 The preponderance of the evidence continues to indicate a capture and occlusion to the south near or offshore Nj/Delmarva area with a weakening system drifting passed us to the south. In this scenario I would expect some breezy to windy conditions along with rough surf and tropical showers along the coast but nothing too damaging, although certainly close enough to watch . That block is probably going to protect us, if the storm was running a bit faster it would escape east ahead of the block but even a slower movement allows the storm to stall and possibly retrograde west under the block but there is really no mechanism to allow a straight north path right into SNE based on the current data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Official track was to the left, a little further left and probably to far left. My initial thoughts where okay "not to bad" I can believe that track but in the back-room of thought was this is going to get nudged to the East closer to landfall. Local warnings went up, stayed up and this morning come down. Apalachicola landfall is a huge difference than Cedar Key. A right-sided storm... Large scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 hour ago, CTValleySnowMan said: The preponderance of the evidence continues to indicate a capture and occlusion to the south near or offshore Nj/Delmarva area with a weakening system drifting passed us to the south. In this scenario I would expect some breezy to windy conditions along with rough surf and tropical showers along the coast but nothing too damaging, although certainly close enough to watch . That block is probably going to protect us, if the storm was running a bit faster it would escape east ahead of the block but even a slower movement allows the storm to stall and possibly retrograde west under the block but there is really no mechanism to allow a straight north path right into SNE based on the current data. Euro at least belies the notion of weakening. Deepens and then holds 970s, even 960s, intensity for a week. Certainly not purely tropical, but an impressive system regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 good point the euro was definitely more intense but also further offshore, 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: Euro at least belies the notion of weakening. Deepens and then holds 970s, even 960s, intensity for a week. Certainly not purely tropical, but an impressive system regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.