Damage In Tolland Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Were in the cone!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Were in the cone!!!!! NHC cone west of their previous update http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152206.shtml?5-daynl#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 congrats Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 Wonder if we can eventually get a LF near or west of BDR moving north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted August 30, 2016 Share Posted August 30, 2016 The little cyclonic abortion that could maybe tickling our way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 31, 2016 Author Share Posted August 31, 2016 TD9 is finally organizing with the low level center and mid level center approaching one another and wind shear a meager 10 knots presently. The NHC has about a 10-20% chance at tropical storm force winds for Cape Cod from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Maybe we can get some PRE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 31, 2016 Author Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Maybe we can get some PRE I think we will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 31, 2016 Author Share Posted August 31, 2016 I think if TD9 reaches category three intensity east of the Cape Hatteras area I think it could hit Cape Cod with strong to intense hurricane force winds, up to 100mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think if TD9 reaches category three intensity east of the Cape Hatteras area I think it could hit Cape Cod with strong to intense hurricane force winds, up to 100mph. Why not 140? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 31, 2016 Author Share Posted August 31, 2016 Because category two strength is a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 31, 2016 Author Share Posted August 31, 2016 That large upper level anticyclone is beginning its dominance over TD 9, which means bad news for the West Coast of Florida come within the next two days. Major HUrricane is a possibility before landfall and then again east of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 You guys and tropical systems... In retrospect looking back living there. Anything's possible but I can say this unequivocally. Wanting a tropical system in New England is like me presently wanting a snowstorm. Hermine has the potential to do some damage in and around my area. I kind of like the drifting track to the west. Maybe I'll be spared as in keeping power. Two ULL influencing the depression, the one over TX moves South and the Eastcoast entity moves out to the Northeast. Path of least resistance. Concerning is the fact I'll be in the RFQ of an intensify cyclone. New England has a chance of getting hit weekend, early next week, models have a big block to the east developing a sharper trough. Come to think of it I'll get a TS and you folks will get a Hurricane. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 31, 2016 Author Share Posted August 31, 2016 LOL Roosta, I think we can get hurricane force winds honestly because even if it turns hybrid, Sandy was very intense hybrid as well. They don't loose their intensity too often regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 25 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think if TD9 reaches category three intensity east of the Cape Hatteras area I think it could hit Cape Cod with strong to intense hurricane force winds, up to 100mph. USCAPE remember that when a storm reaches our latitude the high winds are to the right of the eye. The storm has to really be moving north rapidly to maintain strength. If this storm comes NE and retrogrades back towards us it will be in a very weakened fashion. I can't see this being a Cat 3 up at Hatteras latitude. It is progged to hug the coast. If it was far enough east to really get much of its circulation over the Gulf Stream it would then be too far OTS to hook back. With this kind of setup I would say it is near impossible to have any New England reporting station coming in with a wind even approaching 100mph. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: LOL Roosta, I think we can get hurricane force winds honestly because even if it turns hybrid, Sandy was very intense hybrid as well. They don't loose their intensity too often regardless from an occluding hybrid filling storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: from an occluding hybrid filling storm? Some can wish-cast better then others. 10-20% chance of a graze...oh-oh better go buy the TP before the store "runs" out. I have a new found respect for the tropics looking down the barrel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: Some can wish-cast better then others. 10-20% chance of a graze...oh-oh better go buy the TP before the store "runs" out. I have a new found respect for the tropics looking down the barrel. Yeah, you could be in for some "fun" at your new place. Hopefully nothing devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 31, 2016 Author Share Posted August 31, 2016 Yeah also the storm could drift far enough out to sea to not come back to the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 Did the 18z GFS punt the longer range system? After showing consistently for 5 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 59 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: You guys and tropical systems... In retrospect looking back living there. Anything's possible but I can say this unequivocally. Wanting a tropical system in New England is like me presently wanting a snowstorm. Hermine has the potential to do some damage in and around my area. I kind of like the drifting track to the west. Maybe I'll be spared as in keeping power. Two ULL influencing the depression, the one over TX moves South and the Eastcoast entity moves out to the Northeast. Path of least resistance. Concerning is the fact I'll be in the RFQ of an intensify cyclone. New England has a chance of getting hit weekend, early next week, models have a big block to the east developing a sharper trough. Come to think of it I'll get a TS and you folks will get a Hurricane. LOL I still stand by my position that being a tropical weenie in SNE is less masochistic than chasing our fabled 'severe' season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 31, 2016 Author Share Posted August 31, 2016 Massive eruption of cold cloud tops over the LLC and MLC aligning themselves in TD9, rapid intensification likely from now until landfall over Florida. Roosta be prepared for as much as a category three hurricane for landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 JGW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Massive eruption of cold cloud tops over the LLC and MLC aligning themselves in TD9, rapid intensification likely from now until landfall over Florida. Roosta be prepared for as much as a category three hurricane for landfall. I respectfully disagree. Low end CAT1 max given the dynamics. That eruption is a normal function of the diurnal cycle. Intensity is the least know, predicted phenomena. I'm liking the continued drift tracking W. I'd like a direct hit if I where chasing and it wasn't my homestead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: JGW. ? I'm hoping to keep power as to get GRL2 utilized. Will go buy a batt powered Midland tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 1 minute ago, ROOSTA said: ? I'm hoping to keep power as to get GRL2 utilized. Will go buy a batt powered Midland tomorrow. what town are you in again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 31, 2016 Author Share Posted August 31, 2016 Dynamics are allowing around 36-48 hours of straight intensification, how in the world can it not get to a category two or three hurricane. Best be prepared to deal with one if you don't believe its possible. Better to be prepared than wishing you were at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted August 31, 2016 Share Posted August 31, 2016 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: what town are you in again Abreast of Dayton Beach about 20 miles to the W Exact location via WU KFLALTOO3 17 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Dynamics are allowing around 36-48 hours of straight intensification, how in the world can it not get to a category two or three hurricane. Best be prepared to deal with one if you don't believe its possible. Better to be prepared than wishing you were at the last second. We shall see. The 10" logs are sturdy and anchored, have a 4' crawl space to avoid flooding. SOLID! All stocked just me and the dog. If it really takes off tomorrow I'll still have time for a plywood run.(highly unlikely) Maybe I'll luck out and get nailed ripping off the shingled roof and get it replace with metal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 31, 2016 Author Share Posted August 31, 2016 I believe it honestly doesn't matter how strong the trunk of the tree is, if the top part is weak enough the winds will turn it like a turn dial and break the tree from top to bottom instead of toppling the tree over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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