USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 23, 2016 Author Share Posted August 23, 2016 Monster category five hurricanes can become of 99L and Gaston if the conditions become what they are forecasted to become by day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTFarmer Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Carolina ridging stays put or gets shoved in that case? Stronger = poleward? Edit: Anyone trying to cut hay in New England cares A LOT right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Gaston has one of the nicer looking circulations I've seen in a while. Could make a nice cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 4 hours ago, CTFarmer said: As we transition to La Nina, ONI is currently 0.2 for MJJ (not sure when JJA comes out)- are we headed into a weak La Nina? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml I can't find the post to credit, but someone previously noted that weak La Nina years have featured Irene (2011), Bertha (1996), Gloria(1985), Donna, Carol, 1944 and 1938 storms. Thoughts? EDIT: Found post: If we do enter a weak Niña by the time the atmosphere responses to the oceanic changes hurricane season will be pretty much done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 24, 2016 Author Share Posted August 24, 2016 Paul, Will, we could seriously have a Hurricane Rita/Katrina mix here with Invest 99L gaining a surface circulation currently but could run into Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Paul, Will, we could seriously have a Hurricane Rita/Katrina mix here with Invest 99L gaining a surface circulation currently but could run into Hispaniola. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 25 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Paul, Will, we could seriously have a Hurricane Rita/Katrina mix here with Invest 99L gaining a surface circulation currently but could run into Hispaniola. Nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Based upon everything I'm seeing in the models and the fact that this Invest is expected to develop in the Atlantic ocean, this looks like a near carbon copy of 1938, except stronger because of that paper thin layer of extra-warm water just south of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 Lol at the last page! Ill be surprised if 99l even develops at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 8 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said: Based upon everything I'm seeing in the models and the fact that this Invest is expected to develop in the Atlantic ocean, this looks like a near carbon copy of 1938, except stronger because of that paper thin layer of extra-warm water just south of Long Island. Better cover your tropical garden. TStorms-a-brewin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 9 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said: Based upon everything I'm seeing in the models and the fact that this Invest is expected to develop in the Atlantic ocean, this looks like a near carbon copy of 1938, except stronger because of that paper thin layer of extra-warm water just south of Long Island. 1938 / White Juan hybrid total devastation then 2' of snow the weenies will rejoice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 10 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said: Based upon everything I'm seeing in the models and the fact that this Invest is expected to develop in the Atlantic ocean, this looks like a near carbon copy of 1938, except stronger because of that paper thin layer of extra-warm water just south of Long Island. I assumed the 1938 hurricane had a strong trough to our west that yanked it up here very quickly. Guess I was wrong. Here is the surface map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 8 hours ago, ineedsnow said: Lol at the last page! Ill be surprised if 99l even develops at this point.. Waters just of the coast here and in the Bahamas are very warm (we haven't had alot of rain here this summer), and if it does form and tracks over FL south of Lake O it may gain strength because of warm water over everglades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 JGW Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 27 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I assumed the 1938 hurricane had a strong trough to our west that yanked it up here very quickly. Guess I was wrong. Here is the surface map. There was a very deep trough over the Appalachians. And the strong Atlantic ridge blocked it from going OTS. So it got funneled due north up the coast between the two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There was a very deep trough over the Appalachians. And the strong Atlantic ridge blocked it from going OTS. So it got funneled due north up the coast between the two That's what I thought. I just didn't see it depicted on the surface map. To get a strong cane into New England it has to race north and not meander over the cooler water up this way. Right now the water is unusually warm so might be a bit less of a factor than normally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 I can't think of anything more badass than losing my home to Lionrock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 On August 23, 2016 at 3:27 PM, weatherwiz said: If we do enter a weak Niña by the time the atmosphere responses to the oceanic changes hurricane season will be pretty much done Completely agree and I've tried to explain this to people before These starters in the middle of summer do nothing for the autumns; primary reason for that is the gradient needs increase in the ambient atm before it can register in the atmosphere -can't get around the physics on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 24, 2016 Share Posted August 24, 2016 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Completely agree and I've tried to explain this to people before These starters in the middle of summer do nothing for the autumns; primary reason for that is the gradient needs increase in the ambient atm before it can register in the atmosphere -can't get around the physics on that Except this isn't the middle of the summer. It's very late summer and begins prime cane season..and that's iron clad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 Check out our new Tropical Headquarters Forum. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/forum/37-tropical-headquarters/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 On 8/24/2016 at 11:47 AM, eekuasepinniW said: I can't think of anything more badass than losing my home to Lionrock. What a weird track for that storm, in part because it was doing the fujiwara with Mindulle from 1,000 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 26, 2016 Share Posted August 26, 2016 No one is watching and the NHC doesn't even have it as an area of interest but it looks like a tropical depression is forming south of Bermuda. It looks like it could go west with the ridge of high pressure to its north. How far west would it bet before a sharp recurve OTS just south of SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 1938 in Foxboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 BZ, thanks for posting! Always excited to see fresh '38 footage. My grandfather's buddy once told me he took the ferry from LI to Bridgeport just as the storm was kicking up, on his way to boarding school in Deerfield, MA. He said the drive north was more scary than fighting in Korea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 27, 2016 Author Share Posted August 27, 2016 Invest 91L could make a pass at SNE within the next five days as a category two hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 Maybe even Cat IV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 Wow! Great footage Bob! That's the first I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 27, 2016 Share Posted August 27, 2016 7 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Invest 91L could make a pass at SNE within the next five days as a category two hurricane. Is that going on the book jacket of your novel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 28, 2016 Author Share Posted August 28, 2016 No Hoth, it isn't, 99L is finally developing meaningful convection and development of both the LLC and MLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 28, 2016 Share Posted August 28, 2016 9 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: No Hoth, it isn't, 99L is finally developing meaningful convection and development of both the LLC and MLC. And in no way threatens SNE, cat 2 or otherwise. NC maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.