JC-CT Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 29 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Not tossing it but where I am it really had very minimal impact. Of course the folks in NJ/CT/NY can disagree from their perspective and that's fine Glad to see you don't count CT as New England. M***hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 50 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Sandy didn't impact SNE directly, it was a band of 70-kt winds that impacted SNE, but it was with Sandy itself, more like the nor'easter that she combined with that forced the wind damage upon SNE, Sandy was still tropical when she made landfall in NJ. If by impact you mean 'make landfall' you are correct of course, but it goes without saying that there were substantial effects on the southern shores of New England. (That said, if you wanna sell SW CT to NYC, I'm fine with it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 i think those posters from NNE would have something to say about Irene (or the remnants of it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Glad to see you don't count CT as New England. M***hole. If by impact you mean 'make landfall' you are correct of course, but it goes without saying that there were substantial effects on the southern shores of New England. (That said, if you wanna sell SW CT to NYC, I'm fine with it) i think those posters from NNE would have something to say about Irene (or the remnants of it)Lol. ...if it didnt happen imby it didn't happen, right?Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 16, 2016 Author Share Posted August 16, 2016 I think the future of 98L is very much in doubt given it is currently heading westward while the major models take it northwestward into a break in the sub-tropical ridge over the north tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, Future Fiona because I believe this system will be named Fiona by 5pm today, and I expect a hurricane to develop by 120 hours and could become quite a powerful hurricane if it reaches westward of 60w longitude. This system could become quite intense before a trough off the East Coast if strong enough to recurve it, if it is between 20-25N latitude and 50-60W longitude, however if it somehow is further southwest than these boxes, then landfall will become more probable and it would have missed the strong trough of low pressure that was there to deflect it out to sea. Still some time left to decide where she goes, but she is developing quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 12z cmc was pretty interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 18, 2016 Author Share Posted August 18, 2016 HWRF and EURO as well as know the GFS all have FIona pretty weak as she enters the danger zone for US landfall hurricanes on the East Coast, the box is between 20-40N latitude and 60-80W longitude. If they reach this box, then all bets are off, a potential landfall of a hurricane needs to be monitored, the GFS has shown a hurricane in this box in the last three or four runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 12z gfs and 12z cmc were both interesting gfs misses but that was close.. to bad its way out in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 Looks like Gaston is the one for us to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 Disturbance SW of Cape Verde islands is the next one to watch. Low latitude and moving west. Would be Gaston. Coming into prime Cape Verde season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 18, 2016 Share Posted August 18, 2016 P002 on the 12z gfs ensemble was almost epic defineatly not going to happen but so much fun to look at! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 18, 2016 Author Share Posted August 18, 2016 I need to check that out ineedsnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 6z gfs grazes us but that was close to being an amazing event for us wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 6z gfs was 934 mb 100 miles or so off the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 must be late august Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted August 19, 2016 Share Posted August 19, 2016 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Chuck 'em far and chuck 'em wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 20, 2016 Author Share Posted August 20, 2016 SSTs support a hurricane hitting SNE. Also looks like Tropical Storm Fiona is finally sustaining convection amidst a vigorous low level circulation and also looks as if she stalled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 21, 2016 Author Share Posted August 21, 2016 At hour 183 on the 18z GFS shows a monster category four hurricane with a pressure down to 930mb at around 20N: 60W, prime location for a category five hurricane development. Hermine is southwest of Gaston which makes it to category four strength once again on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 21, 2016 Author Share Posted August 21, 2016 Make that 30N: 60W at hour 210, it looks like Gaston wants to make a pass at the East Coast, imagine the surf from a 924mb monster beautiful hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 21, 2016 Author Share Posted August 21, 2016 I think Gaston can come as far west as 70W longitude, given that even the GFS 500mb charts don't align with a -NAO in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 21, 2016 Author Share Posted August 21, 2016 Look for an intensifying Hurricane Hermine threatening Florida's East Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 21, 2016 Author Share Posted August 21, 2016 Hurricane Hermine (99l) becomes an East Coast threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 21, 2016 Author Share Posted August 21, 2016 First week of September will get very busy here in SNE, tropical threat from Hermine, but again the GFS continues to delay the hurricane threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 Things seem to be finally heating up in the tropics. Invest way out near Africa should recurve safely out to sea. The disturbance further to the west seems to be gaining thunderstorm activity this afternoon as it moves WNW. The Euro develops it around Florida and then into the Gulf slowly re curving it north. This is way way out in fantasy land but some type of storm moving north somewhere, Appalachians, east coast etc. could help the North East drought. Just something to watch for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 22, 2016 Share Posted August 22, 2016 Nice cat 4 into FL Panhandle days 9-10 on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 23, 2016 Author Share Posted August 23, 2016 That is right Kevin, a disaster waiting to happen is old 99L, also Gaston is going to produce a wild looking satellite appearance I guarantee it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 This run with a cane into FL and then up the East coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTFarmer Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 As we transition to La Nina, ONI is currently 0.2 for MJJ (not sure when JJA comes out)- are we headed into a weak La Nina? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml I can't find the post to credit, but someone previously noted that weak La Nina years have featured Irene (2011), Bertha (1996), Gloria(1985), Donna, Carol, 1944 and 1938 storms. Thoughts? EDIT: Found post: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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