JC-CT Posted July 25, 2016 Share Posted July 25, 2016 Elaborate do not have access currentlyFalse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 25, 2016 Author Share Posted July 25, 2016 What I don't post about anything in fantasy land, you lie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted July 26, 2016 Share Posted July 26, 2016 Sorry, my bad. On 7/11/2016 at 7:08 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: GFS finally develops a CV wave into a tropical cyclone around hours 300-384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted July 26, 2016 Share Posted July 26, 2016 13 hours ago, Brewbeer said: Sorry, my bad. Savage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 26, 2016 Share Posted July 26, 2016 20 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: What I don't post about anything in fantasy land, you lie Talking about a TC in the ~2 week plus model timeframe constitutes fantasyland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 i have an idea... how about converting the title of this thread to something like, 'Tropical Season 2016 SNE' and then we use it for that purpose? it's eye rollin' a bit, sure , but contrary to that sarcasm we actually do have concerns/seasonal interests in this area of the country. also, several ensemble members develop the current impressive TW that's emerged off Africa and hi res imagery/loop from CIMs denotes quite a strong circulation already. it's up to 40% in 5 days... which isn't too shabby considering it's all of 100 naut miles from shore. if there's already an SNE trop. thread perhaps it just needs a bump - couldn't find one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 We now have two concurrent CV invests in play... 96L, at 10/20, is a bit further S and is older by a day/day and a half. CIMs hi res vis imagery really denotes a well defined circulation that is centroid/non having multi-whirl contention. not sure what the ambient pressures are out there, but current shear products and as well as SAL monitoring are indicating that those particular factors are not presently mitigating. it would not be surprising to me if that one is TDed at some point soon. 97L ~ 15/35 is new to the party .. I saw that come off the coast three days ago. before hand it toted along quite the MCS in the intra-continental itcz there and wondered... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 28, 2016 Author Share Posted July 28, 2016 Yes Tip, I will rename this thread for that purpose. 97L could have a major US mainland consequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 28, 2016 Author Share Posted July 28, 2016 Actually I don't see where we can edit the title to this thread. Anyone have any suggestions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 29, 2016 Share Posted July 29, 2016 96L has been elevated to medium chance... Hey, USA' ... i'd remove the " ... - Hurricanes " from the title if you want to attract discussion about SNE's tropical season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 31, 2016 Author Share Posted July 31, 2016 97L chances of development are between 40 and 70. Right now I believe 8pm odds for development should be around 70/90. Also chance that this system could intensify rapidly before landfall with the Yucatan peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 5, 2016 Share Posted August 5, 2016 Euro was interesting at hr168 then kind of lost it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 5, 2016 Share Posted August 5, 2016 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Euro was interesting at hr168 then kind of lost it i'd say the D10 synoptic chart offers a prone scenario for the EC in general with THAT look. geshus - but, there's just one small problem - there's nothing there to get caught up in that flow. otherwise that'd be a nice solid media maker - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 17 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: i'd say the D10 synoptic chart offers a prone scenario for the EC in general with THAT look. geshus - but, there's just one small problem - there's nothing there to get caught up in that flow. otherwise that'd be a nice solid media maker - Ec 96l has a 20 percent chance of development off the east coast now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 6, 2016 Share Posted August 6, 2016 15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Ec 96l has a 20 percent chance of development off the east coast now... heh, may not be in the time frame i had in mind. not sure that 'look' still exists across recent cycles either. but, who's to say it won't be worth while to track either way - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 7, 2016 Author Share Posted August 7, 2016 Mid level low associated with a tropical wave currently sits north of PR and is moving northwestward. Under a lot of wind shear from the upper level low west of the mid level low and wave and could develop once the ULL moves away. Could threaten the US East Coast or Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 There has a persistent blob of convection that is NE of the lower Bahamas. It's been moving NW. NHC gives it a 20% of development in the next 48 hours as it moves NW then N. Any thoughts as to what happens to it? Would be nice to see it continue to develop and move close enough to get some moisture up here. Thoughts? Edit. Since I posted the NWS says development if any will be less likely as it moves NW. Looks pretty good on afternoon visible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 7, 2016 Author Share Posted August 7, 2016 Disturbance northeast of the Bahamas is all mid level, but there are signs of low level spiral banding developing in the northern semi circle. I think this disturbance has a good chance to impact SC or NC by the weekend of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 7, 2016 Author Share Posted August 7, 2016 Actually the wind shear analysis maps show shear dropping significantly instead of increasing, so why does the NHC think it will be less likely to develop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 7, 2016 Share Posted August 7, 2016 22 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Actually the wind shear analysis maps show shear dropping significantly instead of increasing, so why does the NHC think it will be less likely to develop? I'm no Met and there is no discussion on AMWX in the general tropical thread. NHC seems very unimpressed with the 2pm update. So no one seems impressed or to be following it. Just looks really good from a layman's point of view on the visible. With a Bermuda high developing wouldn't anything that is there come around the ridge and up towards us? It would be great if it's moisture could be brought up in the flow ahead of the cold front that will be just to our north late week/weekend. Add to that the moisture from the Florida system perhaps finally a setup for a good rains for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 8, 2016 Share Posted August 8, 2016 6 hours ago, wxeyeNH said: There has a persistent blob of convection that is NE of the lower Bahamas. It's been moving NW. NHC gives it a 20% of development in the next 48 hours as it moves NW then N. Any thoughts as to what happens to it? Would be nice to see it continue to develop and move close enough to get some moisture up here. Thoughts? Edit. Since I posted the NWS says development if any will be less likely as it moves NW. Looks pretty good on afternoon visible. It's got a nice circulation on satellite and healthy convection. It looks interesting to my weenie eye, but then I know relatively little about tropical genesis. Best to trust the pros I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 13, 2016 Author Share Posted August 13, 2016 GFS hinting at tropical development towards the end of an old frontal boundary towards the 20th of AUG. A large trough then amplifies the flow from south to north along the coastline and could potentially impact SNE with a tropical cyclone. Models all agree on a large amplifying upper level trough entering the picture around the 20th of aug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 15, 2016 Author Share Posted August 15, 2016 Latest GFS model run has future 99L or Gaston making a threatening pass at the East Coast in 16 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Latest GFS model run has future 99L or Gaston making a threatening pass at the East Coast in 16 days or so. It does but 12z will change.. fun to look at though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 How many years now since SNE has been directly impacted? Bob in '92? Sheesh. How boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: How many years now since SNE has been directly impacted? Bob in '92? Sheesh. How boring Are you tossing Sandy because it may have been extratropical? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 15, 2016 Author Share Posted August 15, 2016 Sandy didn't impact SNE directly, it was a band of 70-kt winds that impacted SNE, but it was with Sandy itself, more like the nor'easter that she combined with that forced the wind damage upon SNE, Sandy was still tropical when she made landfall in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 15, 2016 Author Share Posted August 15, 2016 I actually believe that Fiona or whatever becomes of 98L will impact or threaten the US East Coast as well, maybe as far west as 70W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 15, 2016 Share Posted August 15, 2016 17 minutes ago, radarman said: Are you tossing Sandy because it may have been extratropical? Not tossing it but where I am it really had very minimal impact. Of course the folks in NJ/CT/NY can disagree from their perspective and that's fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 15, 2016 Author Share Posted August 15, 2016 Bob was in 1991, so even longer, 25 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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