USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 Within the next ten to fourteen days the models are pointing towards two tropical cyclones potentially impacting the East Coast of the US. Models differ on development at this time, but there is enough support from the CMC and EURO and GFS to suggest that development is possible southeast of the current 91L disturbance track sometime around Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted May 27, 2016 Author Share Posted May 27, 2016 18z GFS does not impact SNE directly with the second tropical cyclone in ten days, but stalls southeast while CMC comes up to impact SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 what is the weenie for? Too early? Bad model read? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 what is the weenie for? Too early? Bad model read? Dude. ...You probably know what this is for: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 Dude. ...You probably know what this is for: yeah, I get that. I'm slow in the brain this morning, but not that slow. Forgive me. But I couldn't figure out what he meant by the weenie tag.. Didn't know if it was tongue in cheek, or because of something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 Do I really need to explain? Any tropical threat is from tropical rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 Do I really need to explain? Any tropical threat is from tropical rains. Like I said, a bit dense. Must be the whole milk in the coffee instead of half-half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 I like knowing the CMC comes up to impact SNE...god that model is awesome. Always go big or go home. I've still got CMC snow to my roofline after all it's fantasy snow last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 It would be great to get a good soak for all of New England. 2-4" would do the whole region well. Lets hope the system can transport some moisture up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 I haven't seen James post in a while..but I read the thread topic and knew instantly that it was him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalloweenGale Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 We now have TD #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted May 28, 2016 Author Share Posted May 28, 2016 I wasn't saying a direct impact was likely, just that some models were showing a chance. TS Bonnie is with us and there are two other areas of spiked up energy involved in the same trough system as Bonnie spawned from. Bonnie could strengthen to 60mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 I wasn't saying a direct impact was likely, just that some models were showing a chance. TS Bonnie is with us and there are two other areas of spiked up energy involved in the same trough system as Bonnie spawned from. Bonnie could strengthen to 60mph. But probably won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted June 6, 2016 Author Share Posted June 6, 2016 Tropical Storm Colin is with us, but not expected to impact SNE weather. Severe weather is possible on Wednesday, hail the main threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Shear is such a devastating factor to cyclone development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 7, 2016 Share Posted June 7, 2016 Shear is such a devastating factor to cyclone development Except, it would seem, in Joaquin's case. What a weird storm that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted June 14, 2016 Author Share Posted June 14, 2016 Joaquin had a less shear environment, it thrived on no shear over its center and thrived over very warm SSTs. I think this year the East Coast will get hit by a major hurricane. Also I think the CV season is going to start earlier this year with the developing LA Nina. A strong tropical wave is emerging off the west African coastline by 5-6N: 5-15W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Joaquin had a less shear environment, it thrived on no shear over its center and thrived over very warm SSTs. I think this year the East Coast will get hit by a major hurricane. Also I think the CV season is going to start earlier this year with the developing LA Nina. A strong tropical wave is emerging off the west African coastline by 5-6N: 5-15W Well, once J got under that anticyclone in the Bahamas it took off, but for days the models had it getting sheared to death. I remember well all the dismissive posts about it in the main thread, but it held on. Tenacious bugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted June 18, 2016 Author Share Posted June 18, 2016 Hoth, most systems get the reputation of becoming persistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 5, 2016 Author Share Posted July 5, 2016 Mid level low present north of PR developing centralized convection now, could move down to the surface and create a tropical cyclone if given the right shear environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 11, 2016 Author Share Posted July 11, 2016 GFS finally develops a CV wave into a tropical cyclone around hours 300-384. Long range yes, but this goes to show the favorable conditions that are coming to support such CV storms. Upper level pattern looks strange at 500mb at hour 384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 11, 2016 Author Share Posted July 11, 2016 Tropical Wave at 10N: 40W developing robust convection at DMIN, indicative of a circulation forming and inducing convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 GFS finally develops a CV wave into a tropical cyclone around hours 300-384. Long range yes, but this goes to show the favorable conditions that are coming to support such CV storms. Upper level pattern looks strange at 500mb at hour 384. That'll happen on the 384 hour GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 GFS finally develops a CV wave into a tropical cyclone around hours 300-384. Long range yes, but this goes to show the favorable conditions that are coming to support such CV storms. Upper level pattern looks strange at 500mb at hour 384. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 21, 2016 Author Share Posted July 21, 2016 GFS has been consistent on developing the tropical wave that emerges off of the African continent on July 24th through 27th, either one of these waves have the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone come next week when conditions finally become favorable. AS one can see on satellite imagery of the African Coast, convection is already developing south of the Cape Verde Islands. The MJO is coming to enhance TC activity. Be ready, this hurricane season already sees temperatures off of NC and SC that can sustain a 190mph hurricane. Also the waters south of SNE and Cape Cod can sustain a TS so far, just wait until the heart of hurricane season, when they can sustain a category three monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted July 21, 2016 Author Share Posted July 21, 2016 00z GFS develops the wave coming off the African coast by day 6, within 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 24, 2016 Share Posted July 24, 2016 Surprised the long range 6z gfs wasnt posted lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 24, 2016 Share Posted July 24, 2016 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Surprised the long range 6z gfs wasnt posted lol Elaborate do not have access currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted July 24, 2016 Share Posted July 24, 2016 3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Elaborate USCAPEWEATHER usually posts just about anything in fantasy land, and in this case didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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