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Low impact heat wave obs thread.


Typhoon Tip

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After yesterday under-performed by quite a bit with highs in the 70s, today was a torch.

 

BTV (300ft) high of 90F

MVL (730ft) high of 86F

MPV (1,150ft) high of 85F

 

Dews in the low 60s were what really made a difference.  All the heat this season so far has come with dews in the 30s and 40s, so definitely doing the dew today.

 

South wind still blowing at BTV and this is when the big differences between the Champlain Valley and the "mountain valleys" occurs.

 

We've been dropping 5-6F per hour and its down in the low 70s now while BTV is still in the 80s.  Could be another BTV "Key West" night that they get in the summer...where its like 79F at 3am with a southerly tropical breeze.

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The MET is throwing out mid 90s like Halloween candy for today. Warmest I saw was 96 at MHT and ASH. 17C 850s with W flow so we have a shot at approaching those numbers. CON record is 94 from 1978.

Miserable day on tap, dew points already climbing. Swamp Boy is going to be in his glory.

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Terrible place. You on desk? Any chance of a few cells later today?

 

For another few minutes anyway, then it's crawling into bed. Should've installed.

 

Looks like widely scattered stuff possible later today. Heights rising so not really any coherent forcing, but I'm thinking elevated heat source, terrain type forcing could spark a few. HRRR has it.

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The coarse depictions given in the free Euro products makes me inclined to think that the NAM and GFS are too aggressive with the BD for Sunday, but ... a discrete product if theirs might also discount that conclusion - I dunno.

 

The NAM has been persistent about convenient GOM meso-beta-scaled "bubble"-high sort of spontaneously engendering its self for seemingly no apparent physical reason (heh)  ... and then of course fluid mechanics take over and it bullies on into eastern zones like a bully left alone with a paraplegic.. 

 

It has backed off a little ..grudgingly, the last couple of cycles, but still offers up 63 and [probably] dammed strata as far west as I495, while KBAF soars again into the low 90s.  That's a wicked gradient in sensible appeal across 30 miles there.   We'll see how that plays out.   

 

In the meantime, ... the chances for a proper heat wave set sailed yesterday.  so this should merely go down a substantial positive departure.  I still find it interesting that this was a continental-size synoptic pattern bringing all this about, while the teleconnectors had pretty much zippo support for it the whole way, leading up and during - heat wave or not (hw's are a human distinction that mean nothing in nature of course...) 

 

The reason for that could be anything from seasonal wave-length reduction invalidating the correlations we normally would see in winter (probably related...), to the vaster array of ensemble mean just simply being wrong compared to the verification.  The operational GFS wasn't much better, though... It's been pretty much the most obtuse of all oper. guidance in finding least excuse imaginable not to go above normal. 

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