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Bonnie Discussion/Obs


NWNC2015

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So any tornado's with this one? How about large storm surge or catastrophic flooding? Man from this thread, I would have thought that Bonnie was a huge deal. I had a total of 15 raindrops here in Asheville, but some were saying SW NC would be ground zero. That meso high that had been modeled over NW NC for the past 5 days should have been a good indication that moisture entering that environment would dry up. Thus negating any precip from upslope. Models struggled resolving this, but that high pressure played huge in WNC.

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So any tornado's with this one? How about large storm surge or catastrophic flooding? Man from this thread, I would have thought that Bonnie was a huge deal. I had a total of 15 raindrops here in Asheville, but some were saying SW NC would be ground zero. That meso high that had been modeled over NW NC for the past 5 days should have been a good indication that moisture entering that environment would dry up. Thus negating any precip from upslope. Models struggled resolving this, but that high pressure played huge in WNC.

Only 1 said that NWNC would be ground zero, with 6-12" of rain, and that was Wilkesdude or (NWNC2015) ! And he always nails his forecasts!
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SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...35.0N 75.7W

ABOUT 14 MILES...23 KM...S OF HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...20 MPH...32 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

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From the 5:00PM advisory...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT  02/2100Z 35.4N  74.8W   30 KT  35 MPH 12H  03/0600Z 35.8N  73.4W   35 KT  40 MPH 24H  03/1800Z 36.3N  70.8W   35 KT  40 MPH 36H  04/0600Z 36.5N  67.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H  04/1800Z 36.5N  63.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H  05/1800Z 36.0N  55.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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Well, glad to see the forum's up again.

 

Bonnie looks to become a tropical storm within the next few hours. Overall, I've been impressed with its strengthening over the past day. IMO, it looked much better a bit earlier today on satellite than it ever did last week. With weak(er) shear, the convection is actually able to stay near the CoC, as opposed to having essentially a naked swirl like we did last week.

 

avn-animated.gif

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1100 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016

The last observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter

aircraft from several hours ago showed that Bonnie had changed

little in intensity and remained just below tropical storm

strength. Since that time, the cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone

has not become better organized, and the center appears to be

located on the southeast edge of the main area of deep convection.

The current intensity is held at 30 kt, and this is in agreement

with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. There is a

short window of opportunity for Bonnie to strengthen a bit as it

traverses the Gulf Stream and the vertical shear remains light

during the next 12 to 24 hours.

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With quite the impressive burst in convection, Bonnie (yet again) becomes a TS.

 

From the NHC:

 

Somewhat unexpectedly, the convection associated with Bonnie has
increased this afternoon to the point where the satellite intensity
estimate from TAFB is now 35 kt. In addition, an ASCAT-B overpass
near 1400 UTC showed several 35-kt vectors about 30 n mi southeast
of the center. Based on these data, Bonnie is again designated as
a tropical storm with an initial intensity of 35 kt.

The initial motion is now 090/11. Bonnie should move generally
eastward to east-southeastward between the subtropical ridge to the
south and a developing baroclinic low to the northeast. The model
guidance has shifted a little southward since the last advisory,
and the new forecast track is nudged southward as well.

The current intensification is likely to be short lived, as Bonnie
will be moving over sea surface temperatures colder than 24C in
about 12 hours. Thus, the intensity forecast calls for weakening
through the forecast period, with Bonnie degenerating to a
post-tropical low between 12 and 24 hours. The low should
subsequently weaken to a trough between 48 and 72 hours.

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