Solak Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Never gonna happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Looks like it's a little south of modeled projections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Yes, it seems to be a series of interactions between the ULL complex and airmass over the continent and the TUTT at sea. The ULL slowed down and the TUTT and its developing lows began retrograde motion around the same time. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_central+/72h Yeah water vapor makes it pretty obvious why this thing never had a chance.... its pretty much a done deal, the llc doesnt look very healthy however the water vapor loop does have a rather deep tropical connection off the SE coast, how and where that moisture goes could cause a few places to cash in on some decent rain especially along the SC coast. Also the area north of Puerto Rico could be interesting in a few days if it persist.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Yeah water vapor makes it pretty obvious why this thing never had a chance.... its pretty much a done deal, the llc doesnt look very healthy however the water vapor loop does have a rather deep tropical connection off the SE coast, how and where that moisture goes could cause a few places to cash in on some decent rain especially along the SC coast. Also the area north of Puerto Rico could be interesting in a few days if it persist....Actually looks much better than earlier. Recent radar trends show intense thunderstorm activity wrapping around the center. There is most likely tropical storm force winds in the NW quadrant now. Probably might get upgraded at 5pm or later tonight once we get recon in there. Recent runs of the HRRR show this tightening up right before landfall getting up to 50kts. It may also stick around longer than expected if it can manage to stay over the water and feed off the warm waters of the gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 28, 2016 Author Share Posted May 28, 2016 Still a slight chance of tropical storm status today but impact will be same with or without the name. Moisture is still coming. The poop color will see sinking air on the west side and much lower rain totals with a very sharp cutoff generally over the upstate of SC and west. The red area will need to be monitored closely for weak spin ups and may require a tornado watch. Typical of stronger north-east quadrant tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 28, 2016 Author Share Posted May 28, 2016 Actually looks much better than earlier. Recent radar trends show intense thunderstorm activity wrapping around the center. There is most likely tropical storm force winds in the NW quadrant now. Probably might get upgraded at 5pm or later tonight once we get recon in there. Recent runs of the HRRR show this tightening up right before landfall getting up to 50kts. It may also stick around longer than expected if it can manage to stay over the water and feed off the warm waters of the gulf stream. Agreed it moved over the warmer waters just 6 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Still a slight chance of tropical storm status today but impact will be same with or without the name. Moisture is still coming. The poop color will see sinking air on the west side and much lower rain totals with a very sharp cutoff generally over the upstate of SC and west. The red area will need to be monitored closely for weak spin ups and may require a tornado watch. Typical of stronger north-east quadrant tropical systems. Lol, jshetley's gonna love this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 TS Bonnie just named. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Lol, jshetley's gonna love this.GSP going with a general .50 of QPF , but subject to change, due to uncertainty of the banding set up. Just looking at sattelite , it's taking a good trajectory to feed some moisture back here, we will see where the banding makes it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Now it stays inland until Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 28, 2016 Author Share Posted May 28, 2016 Loving those warmer waters and another 18+ hours away from landfall. Surprised it looks this good during dmin before dmax overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Personally, I find this little factoid quite interesting. Bonnie has formed off of SC - the 6th May named storm since 2007. 0 May named storms in prev 25 years (1982-2006) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 28, 2016 Author Share Posted May 28, 2016 Here is the latest Canadian poop line. Above was the NAM I was referencing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Loving those warmer waters and another 18+ hours away from landfall. Surprised it looks this good during dmin before dmax overnight. Its almost a naked swirl, if the shear would back off then it might be able to get to be a legit TS of the MLC and LLC can stack up, that shear is pretty brutal though, SC coast gonna get a lot of rain though....you can see the sea breeze front in NC on this loop well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 28, 2016 Author Share Posted May 28, 2016 Recon is going to find it stronger again I think....50 possible.....max 60 before landfall but unlikely. Looks slower and coc catching up to convection over the warm waters. Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 9m 9 minutes ago Bonnie taking a little more time than expected. Quasi-stationary over the last 3 hours: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=31&lon=-78&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&info=vis&mapcolor=cyan&palette=ir.pal&type=Animation&quality=100&numframes=15 … More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 28, 2016 Author Share Posted May 28, 2016 18z GFS is 2-4" for the NC foothills...NWS GSP mentions its possible but they don't really know/not in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 18z GFS is 2-4" for the NC foothills...NWS GSP mentions its possible but they don't really know/not in the forecast.nice wishcasting, nws bashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Personally, I find this little factoid quite interesting. Bonnie has formed off of SC - the 6th May named storm since 2007. 0 May named storms in prev 25 years (1982-2006) Very interesting. But of note, early/pre season TC's seem to be a little more common during El Nino seasons, and doesn't necessarily mean the rest of the season will or will not be active. For example, last year with ANA being the earliest TC to make landfall in SC. (although Joaquin was one powerful TC that its origins were non-tropical initially) Now oddly enough, we have Bonnie which is forecast to landfall between Beaufort and Charleston. (2 years in a row for a SC May landfall?) Needless to say, 2016 has produced a bonafide hurricane in January and Bonnie a few days before the official start of the season.(and dumping a lot of rain since 1200pm my way) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 nice wishcasting, nws bashing.Isohomey , is gonna have to pimp-slap someone, and soon! Wilkesdud is hitting the O'Douls hard tonight! If I get any rain from Bonnie, color me thrilled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 This is a case where if you're not near the storm and you want rain you don't want this system to get too strong. A stronger system would pull most of the moisture towards the center. Mr. Burns, You're right it seems like we've been getting early storms a lot these past years. But it hasn't extended to storms later in the season. Not sure why this is happing. Maybe warmer water early in the year but more shear later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 29, 2016 Author Share Posted May 29, 2016 Rain in Charlotte headed toward the foothills around midnight based on now-casting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 29, 2016 Author Share Posted May 29, 2016 8:00 PM EDT Sat May 28Location: 30.9N 79.4WMoving: StationaryMin pressure: 1008 mbMax sustained: 40 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 LLC looks completely detached from the MLC at this point, the real question is how does the MLC help feed moisture into SC. its hard to tell on shortwave but looks like the LLC is at 79.5W 30.8 N still and it doesnt seem to have moved very much at all so will it even make the coast. Really looks to have not moved at all for the duration of that loop. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 Recon has pressure down to 1007 mb now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted May 29, 2016 Author Share Posted May 29, 2016 Have your NOAA weather radios on tomorrow could have a tornado mess something up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 Have your NOAA weather radios on tomorrow could have a tornado mess something up. Fingers crossed for Wilkesboro ! 74 and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 Yep Last Updated: May 29, 2016, 3:00:00 AM GMT Location: 31N 79.5W Movement: Nearly Stationary Wind: 45.0 mph Pressure: 1008 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 New convection just N of the CoC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 Nice banding in the first visible images this morning. Not much in the way of convection, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 8:00AM -- downgraded to a depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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