Superstorm93 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 91L has a ways to go, but water temperatures are anomalously warm and along with the upper level conditions forecast to become more conducive for development, we could have our second tropical cyclone of the year before the actual season begins. The NHC gives this a 30/60 shot as of 8pm 5/25. Wouldn't expect anything stronger than 50 mph from this system since the tropical transition should take a decent amount of time. 91L does have a pretty decent surface reflection that was initialized by the 18z HWRF. Anyway, tis the season! 000ABNT20 KNHC 252338TWOATSPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL740 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:Cloudiness and showers over the western Atlantic Ocean a few hundredmiles northeast of the Bahamas are associated with a newly formedarea of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected togradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical orsubtropical cyclone could form on Friday or Saturday. The low isforecast to move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward andapproach the southeastern United States over the weekend. The nextSpecial Tropical Weather Outlook on this disturbance will be issuedby 9 AM EDT on Thursday. For additional information on this system,see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Hoping for a more southern track into Savannah...keep it and the easterly flow away from the lower Eastern Shore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 26, 2016 Author Share Posted May 26, 2016 Now up to 50/70 on the latest TWO. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 but water temperatures are anomalously warm I see borderline 80 temps , what am I missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 26, 2016 Author Share Posted May 26, 2016 I see borderline 80 temps , what am I missing.It's not supposed to be insanely warm, but one to three Celsius can make a decent impact if this does get caught up and stalls a bit. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 Up to 80/80 now, this thing is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 TD # 2 Advisories to start at 5 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 I feel bad for anybody who booked a vacation down that way for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tater Tot Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 I feel like we get these every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2016 Author Share Posted May 27, 2016 I feel like we get these every year. Reminiscent of Alberto 2012, Beryl 2012, and Ana 2015 We'll see how this fares over the next 36 hours. A little worried about the upper level convergence that may occur right when this system gets over the Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Tropical Storm Bonnie advisory 5 issued. Depression strengthens into tropical storm. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/281447.shtml? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 28, 2016 Author Share Posted May 28, 2016 Impressive burst likely caused by the gradient temp of the Gulf Stream. Wouldn't be shocked if it winds up to 45 knots before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 I would guess winds could go as high as 60mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 It has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression with winds up to 35mph http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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