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June 2016 Discussions/Observations


bluewave

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Looks like the front is in the HV, will move through most of the area by 10am.

...you can see the band of clouds associated with the CF dropping SE..thats when the

winds will increase out of the NW.. but still gonna try the beach..maybe "sand blasting"

but will give it a shot anyway.

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Departures through 6/11

NYC: +0.8

EWR: +0.1

LGA: +1.7

JFK: +1.9

TTN: +2.0

PHL: +2.2

And that's with record blocking keeping temps down? How sad. Maybe if we get a very large volcanic explosion we will get to normal one day.
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And that's with record blocking keeping temps down? How sad. Maybe if we get a very large volcanic explosion we will get to normal one day.

 

Less warm has become the new cool around here. We haven't seen extended below normal temps here since

JFM 2015. We need extreme blocking just to keeps the means closer to normal before the much above normal

and record warmth returns when the blocking fades.

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Big change in Tot. Precip. for next 16 days from yesterday's runs.    Persistent east, southeast and then northeast winds spins up big rainstorm for next Sunday, starts near Cape Hatteras.    Favorable MJO phases?   No 90 degree days w/o a fight here in northeast for the 16 day period.

 

From 06Z GFS:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_atlantic_180_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=atlantic&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=180&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160612+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

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Big change in Tot. Precip. for next 16 days from yesterday's runs.    Persistent east, southeast and then northeast winds spins up big rainstorm for next Sunday, starts near Cape Hatteras.    Favorable MJO phases?   No 90 degree days w/o a fight here in northeast for the 16 day period.

between 6/21 - 6/26 id be surprised if the area didnt reach widespread 90 degree readings 1 or 2 days

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Just as an aside, we are coming off a fairly strong El Niño phase transitioning to a potentially moderate La Niña. Would it not translate to warmer temps over the baseline? I'm interested to see if the AMO flips in the next few years, that should have an influence on our temps. I'm just glad I live at 800 feet elevation, 45 miles west of the urban heat islands.

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And that's with record blocking keeping temps down? How sad. Maybe if we get a very large volcanic explosion we will get to normal one day.

 

 

Far from it, actually. Blocking has been mediocre at best for the month of June, and the meteorological spring as a whole. NAO finished positive for March and April; it was slightly negative in May.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

Mar   Apr   May

0.73 0.38 -0.77

 

 

The NAO experienced a transient dip -1 to -2 in the beginning of the month, but has been oscillating around neutral. The AO, similarly, has not been significantly negative.

 

2z8okqt.png

 

 

142stvq.jpg

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Far from it, actually. Blocking has been mediocre at best for the month of June, and the meteorological spring as a whole. NAO finished positive for March and April; it was slightly negative in May.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

Mar   Apr   May

0.73 0.38 -0.77

 

The NAO experienced a transient dip -1 to -2 in the beginning of the month, but has been oscillating around neutral. The AO, similarly, has not been significantly negative.

 

I like using the 500 mb anomalies to judge the strength of blocking since the strongest height anomalies

often occur between the classic teleconnection regions.

 

This spring set the record for blocking over Western Canada north to the Beaufort Sea area of the Arctic.

Overall 500 mb heights continue at record levels for the globe.

 

http://24.237.90.116/rankings.php

 

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Its been holding in the 60's in upstate NY, and dropping into the 50's in some locations. That makes for a 30 degree temperature spread. Impressive cold front for mid-June. If not for the down-sloping/compressional heating, we would also be dropping more dramatically. Regardless, DPs are taking a tumble. It will be a very comfortable evening and night - even chilly in spots.

 

Already 87..it can stop climbing now

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Less warm has become the new cool around here. We haven't seen extended below normal temps here since

JFM 2015. We need extreme blocking just to keeps the means closer to normal before the much above normal

and record warmth returns when the blocking fades.

Even that period was a bit of good luck as our negative departures were a small blip in a sea of widespread above across the NH.  

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Even that period was a bit of good luck as our negative departures were a small blip in a sea of widespread above across the NH.  

 

Yeah, the record JFM cold over the Northeast occurred in a sea of warmth across the NH making it even more impressive.

 

Below normal months become harder to come by  against such a warm background state. The record

blocking last JFM over Western NOAM got stuck long enough to focus what little cold there was right over our

area. 

 

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I like using the 500 mb anomalies to judge the strength of blocking since the strongest height anomalies

often occur between the classic teleconnection regions.

 

This spring set the record for blocking over Western Canada north to the Beaufort Sea area of the Arctic.

Overall 500 mb heights continue at record levels for the globe.

 

http://24.237.90.116/rankings.php

 

attachicon.gif2016_2_5_3_5_5_2_90_-90_0_360_panel.png

 

I like using the 500 mb anomalies to judge the strength of blocking since the strongest height anomalies

often occur between the classic teleconnection regions.

 

This spring set the record for blocking over Western Canada north to the Beaufort Sea area of the Arctic.

Overall 500 mb heights continue at record levels for the globe.

 

http://24.237.90.116/rankings.php

 

attachicon.gif2016_2_5_3_5_5_2_90_-90_0_360_panel.png

 

 

The location of the strongest 500mb geopotential height anomalies through that period projects most strongly onto the PNA domain, which does not have a significant correlation with our temperatures in the spring season. Once the robust blocking retrograded into the EPO region for May, while concomitantly, the NAO finally dipped negative, most of the United States experienced a colder to much colder than normal May. Of course, there is substantial residual heat in the mid latitudes due in large part to the collapsing super El Nino, but to me, the teleconnection indices did not support the focus of the cold over the Northeast for most of the meteorological spring.

 

2d144y1.gif

 

10wvgo5.png

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