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June 2016 Discussions/Observations


bluewave

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The GFS barely has the area hitting 80 degrees over the next 16 days let alone 90.

 

Ensembles in good agreement on a monster ULL over NNE this weekend.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_16.png

 

The OP then cuts off a low to our Southwest post day 7 as blocking returns with full force. The ensembles have the cut off low as well.

 

gfs_z500a_us_38.png

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These very impressive blocking patterns continue to produce for us with one of the deepest

500 mb lows on record at OKX in June.

 

attachicon.gifScreen shot 2016-06-09 at 7.23.25 AM.png

 

attachicon.gifeps_z500a_nh_1.png

 

Could you post  the equivalent screenshot for the annual 850mb Temps. @ NYC, which are just 3----4C this morning?

 

 

The 12Z OKX sounding was also near record low 850 mb modern day temps for June 9th.

Just goes to show how extreme these blocking patterns have been.

 

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The GFS barely has the area hitting 80 degrees over the next 16 days let alone 90.

 

Ensembles in good agreement on a monster ULL over NNE this weekend.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_16.png

 

The OP then cuts off a low to our Southwest post day 7 as blocking returns with full force. The ensembles have the cut off low as well.

 

gfs_z500a_us_38.png

 

 

Only checked the 6z GFS. Had almost no rain through 16 days.

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...its sooo hot in the midwest..chicago gets to 95* tomorrow..when is that ridge

coming here??..or is it?

 

We'll have to wait and see what happens once we get past day 10.

 

But the ensembles keep the ridge over the Midwest for the next week to 10 days

with some troughing over the Northeast.

 

 

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No precipitation for 10 days on GFS   6/11---6/21 about.   Boring.   Shouldn't this make above normal temps. more likely despite the fact a -NAO will try to protect New England/N.E.?    If there really will be a thermo-conflict going on around here, why is there no convection  for us?

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No precipitation for 10 days on GFS   6/11---6/21 about.   Boring.   Shouldn't this make above normal temps. more likely despite the fact a -NAO will try to protect New England/N.E.?    If there really will be a thermo-conflict going on around here, why is there no convection  for us?

It's likely going to rain on Saturday in most places.

 

The reason for the lack of rain is because of where the blocking sets up. FWIW the GEFS is further East with the cut off low than the OP and the significant rains make it into PA and parts of the mid-atlantic before the whole system retrogrades back West. 

 

One thing certain is that no heat waves are on the horizon. Troughing remains on the mean throughout the entire period and the 00z EPS builds ridging in the Southwest post day 7 which would only help to reload the trough further East.

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It's likely going to rain on Saturday in most places.

The reason for the lack of rain is because of where the blocking sets up. FWIW the GEFS is further East with the cut off low than the OP and the significant rains make it into PA and parts of the mid-atlantic before the whole system retrogrades back West.

One thing certain is that no heat waves are on the horizon. Troughing remains on the mean throughout the entire period and the 00z EPS builds ridging in the Southwest post day 7 which would only help to reload the trough further East.

Question doesn't a -NAO promote above average temps in the summer? And yeah looks like blocking looks to dominate the pattern now especially with the solar minimum
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Question doesn't a -NAO promote above average temps in the summer? And yeah looks like blocking looks to dominate the pattern now especially with the solar minimum

It depends on the positioning. You're not going to get above average temps with troughing locked in to your northeast.

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It depends on the positioning. You're not going to get above average temps with troughing locked in to your northeast.

In June, the -NAO seems to be associated with more Nor'easters and cut-offs, and therefore cooler temperatures. In July and August those things are less common so the -NAO can hook up with the SE ridge for above normal temperatures.

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In June, the -NAO seems to be associated with more Nor'easters and cut-offs, and therefore cooler temperatures. In July and August those things are less common so the -NAO can hook up with the SE ridge for above normal temperatures.

Agree-we've had some of our hottest stretches in July with a -NAO

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