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June 2016 Discussions/Observations


bluewave

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Latest Euro and EPS hinting that the blocking will be strong enough to delay the first

90 degree reading of June in Newark beyond June 10th.

 

Newark first June 90 since 2000:

 

6/11/15

6/17/14

6/1/13

6/20/12

6/1/11

6/3/10

None 09*

6/7/08

6/1/07

6/1/06

6/8/04

6/23/03

6/5/02

6/20/01

6/2/00

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Surely some second thoughts must be in mets' mind about a scorcher summer. That blocking is really stubborn.

 

 

Going as planned thus far, in my view. Both of my collapsing Nino / +PDO analog years featured a hotter than normal summer, but June was normal to cooler than normal (Jul-Aug very hot). This year seems to be evolving similarly; the large scale pattern is such, that troughiness will tend to be favored in the Northeast through mid June at least. There will undoubtedly be a rally in the last third of the month with significant heat, which - like May - should result in the elimination of most negative departures nearing month's end.

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Surely some second thoughts must be in mets' mind about a scorcher summer. That blocking is really stubborn.

I am wondering if we will have alternating cool/hot periods like we have had recently. I kind of doubt a much below normal summer, but maybe around average. I hope so at least, as not a fan of the heat.

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I am wondering if we will have alternating cool/hot periods like we have had recently. I kind of doubt a much below normal summer, but maybe around average. I hope so at least, as not a fan of the heat.

 

The SST profile off the West Coast looks like it could support an alternating pattern of hot/less warm or closer to normal.

Notice how the warm water south of Alaska would promote a ridge there like we saw last week. This week the ridge

is building further east over Western NOAM closer to the warm pool off the British Columbia and the US West Coast.

Whichever area wins out will probably determine the amount of 90+ and 95+ degree days here this summer.

 

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I am wondering if we will have alternating cool/hot periods like we have had recently. I kind of doubt a much below normal summer, but maybe around average. I hope so at least, as not a fan of the heat.

Probably but I think the heat will win out. Probably +2-+3 for the summer would be a safe bet

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...turned out to be a nice late spring day here on the east end..gotta keeper

fluke out of shinnecock bay..and then preceded to have a nice beach day..a mostly 

sunny day..winds SW and a little gusty.. but backed off late in the afternoon.

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Phoenix is getting the big heat this week as the ridge shifted to the West.

This is probably the equivalent of Newark hitting 100 for the first time 

during June 1-7.

 

EARLIEST* 115° ever in Phoenix. The high temp of 115° is the earliest in the year this has ever occurred. Previous record: 6/7 (1985)

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Phoenix is getting the big heat this week as the ridge shifted to the West.

This is probably the equivalent of Newark hitting 100 for the first time

during June 1-7.

EARLIEST* 115° ever in Phoenix. The high temp of 115° is the earliest in the year this has ever occurred. Previous record: 6/7 (1985)

Yet another long term/all time heat record falls.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

921 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

NJZ004-006-103-104-NYZ071>073-176-050215-

EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-HUDSON-NORTHERN

QUEENS-BRONX-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-

921 PM EDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS WILL AFFECT EASTERN PASSAIC...

SOUTHERN BERGEN...QUEENS AND BRONX COUNTIES...

AT 917 PM EDT...A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS WAS ALONG A LINE

EXTENDING FROM PATERSON TO FORT LEE TO LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...AND MOVING

EAST AT 10 MPH. RADAR RAINFALL RATE ESTIMATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER

HOUR ARE OCCURRING IN THESE SHOWERS. THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF

ROADWAYS.

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