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June 2016 Discussions/Observations


bluewave

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Similar scenario last year with regards to a warmu/heat in late June.  it would have exceeded IMO if it hadn't been for the cutoff onshore flow.

 

The record 600 dm ridge set up too far west to to push the UL further east for upper 90's at Newark.

I think this may have been the strongest US ridge since the world famous July 2013 retrograding WAR.

 

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Going to Vegas July 7th let it be that hot now and not later

 

The last run of the weeklies kept the ridge locked in over the Western US for the next 46 days.

But hopefully for your trip the heat is off the peak that we are seeing now.

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The last run of the weeklies kept the ridge locked in over the Western US for the next 46 days.

But hopefully for your trip the heat is off the peak that we are seeing now.

thanks for the update! A few cocktails poolside will take care of that heat for sure 

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Day 4 SPC outlook:

   ON THU/D4...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY AN ONGOING MCS...MAY   EXIST ACROSS OH OR WV THU MORNING...WITH EXACT LOCATION DEPENDING ON   THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS ON THE PREVIOUS DAY. DESPITE   UNCERTAINTY...STRONG WLY FLOW WILL BRING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR   MASS INTO THE REGION AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY MIDDAY. STRONG   FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH A SFC LOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A   CONTINUATION OF ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT   ESPECIALLY ON SWRN FRINGE WHERE ACCESS TO A MORE PRISTINE AIR MASS   IS MOST LIKELY. STRONG MEAN WIND FIELDS AND FAVORABLE LIFT WILL BE   SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS. WILL INTRODUCE A BROAD 15% SLIGHT RISK   AREA NOW THAT MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW TRACK.
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Day 4 SPC outlook:

   ON THU/D4...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY AN ONGOING MCS...MAY   EXIST ACROSS OH OR WV THU MORNING...WITH EXACT LOCATION DEPENDING ON   THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS ON THE PREVIOUS DAY. DESPITE   UNCERTAINTY...STRONG WLY FLOW WILL BRING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR   MASS INTO THE REGION AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY MIDDAY. STRONG   FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH A SFC LOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A   CONTINUATION OF ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT   ESPECIALLY ON SWRN FRINGE WHERE ACCESS TO A MORE PRISTINE AIR MASS   IS MOST LIKELY. STRONG MEAN WIND FIELDS AND FAVORABLE LIFT WILL BE   SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS. WILL INTRODUCE A BROAD 15% SLIGHT RISK   AREA NOW THAT MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SFC LOW TRACK.

 

How does the CAPE and shear look?

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