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June 2016 Discussions/Observations


bluewave

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When I first learned that Koppen classified the immediate NYC area as sub-tropical, I didn't buy it. But it's actually a correct classification -- you guys are so much warmer on non-CAA nights, which comprises the vast majority of the warm season and likely a significant percentage of the cold season. Most people only feel the daytime temperatures, so it feels like the same climate as the rest of the region, but overnight, differentials of 15-20 degrees over a span of 30 miles is not uncommon. NYC's overnight lows are more on par with rural southern Virginia.

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When I first learned that Koppen classified the immediate NYC area as sub-tropical, I didn't buy it. But it's actually a correct classification -- you guys are so much warmer on non-CAA nights, which comprises the vast majority of the warm season and likely a significant percentage of the cold season. Most people only feel the daytime temperatures, so it feels like the same climate as the rest of the region, but overnight, differentials of 15-20 degrees over a span of 30 miles is not uncommon. NYC's overnight lows are more on par with rural southern Virginia.

Ocean and Sound are a huge influence. Both are currently 61-64 degrees. Back bays 64-68 degrees.

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When I first learned that Koppen classified the immediate NYC area as sub-tropical, I didn't buy it. But it's actually a correct classification -- you guys are so much warmer on non-CAA nights, which comprises the vast majority of the warm season and likely a significant percentage of the cold season. Most people only feel the daytime temperatures, so it feels like the same climate as the rest of the region, but overnight, differentials of 15-20 degrees over a span of 30 miles is not uncommon. NYC's overnight lows are more on par with rural southern Virginia.

It's that way because the mean temperature in its coldest month (January) is above freezing. UHI does help, but even here without the UHI, our January mean is at the subtropical threshold.

That's actually what my username stands for.

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It's that way because the mean temperature in its coldest month (January) is above freezing. UHI does help, but even here without the UHI, our January mean is at the subtropical threshold.

That's actually what my username stands for.

the city averages below 32 if you use the coldest 30 day period for each year instead of the coldest calendar month...the average is around 28 degrees...30 degrees over the last 30 years...

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It's that way because the mean temperature in its coldest month (January) is above freezing. UHI does help, but even here without the UHI, our January mean is at the subtropical threshold.

That's actually what my username stands for.

 

 

Yep, I am aware. < 32F for the coldest month and > 72F in the warmest month are two of the requirements for Dfa (continental, hot summer). I did notice that about your screen name. Below is the image of North American climates. You can see the small area of green in western Long Island. I've always thought the Dfa climate is as close as one can get to 4 approximately equal length seasons. Dfb, the cold season/winter dominates; Cfa, summer dominates, and Dfa, we typically have a 3 month period for each season on average. Newark, NJ is in Dfa, as is most of central/eastern LI. As Unc W noted, I think there is an argument to be made for Dfa in NYC.

 

Also, NJ probably has one of the most impressive gradients in climate. Dfb/short warm summer in NW NJ, Dfa/hot summer much of NJ, and Cfa/subtropical along the S/SE coast of NJ..

 

345c7ew.jpg

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Brian5671, on 19 Jun 2016 - 08:44 AM, said:

upton has chopped the Tue T-storm threat to 20-30%.  Dry begets dry

After above average rain for May, back to another dry month like March and April...No measurable rain here for 11 straight days, and like you mentioned, not looking too great for Tuesday.

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Some of the warmer spots may top 90 today with a better shot at widespread 90s on Tue before the front.  Beyond there 6-26 / 6-27 may offer the next shot at 90(+).  Otherwise we look to hover near normal the next 7 - 10 days by way of a day or two above normal followed by near normal.  Until we see the WC ridge hook with the WAR any ridging in the east will be transient.  Hints of that beyond jul 4th...

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Yep happens every time. I really hope we don't have another dry summer

 

 

After above average rain for May, back to another dry month like March and April...No measurable rain here for 11 straight days, and like you mentioned, not looking too great for Tuesday.

Joe D'Aleo wrote a post about the colder that normal SST's off VA to Bos could enhance our drought conditions.  

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Some of the warmer spots may top 90 today with a better shot at widespread 90s on Tue before the front.  Beyond there 6-26 / 6-27 may offer the next shot at 90(+).  Otherwise we look to hover near normal the next 7 - 10 days by way of a day or two above normal followed by near normal.  Until we see the WC ridge hook with the WAR any ridging in the east will be transient.  Hints of that beyond jul 4th...

 

It will be interesting to see if this is the first year since 1996 that Newark records a warmer May max temp than in June.

May 1996 had a high of 99 followed by a 92 for June. This May saw a high of 96 and June and so far hasn't been able

to reach 97 or greater. There were a few Euro runs that were hinting at this earlier this week but have backed

off the upper 90's forecast.

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