bluewave Posted June 16, 2016 Author Share Posted June 16, 2016 Any chance that MCS makes it here later? The middle part of the line just went severe. No. The block and UL to the north is too strong so it will eventually get forced to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 No. The block and UL to the north is too strong so it will eventually get forced to our south. eps_z500a_exnamer_7.png It's raining heavily in places in Northern and Central PA that were supposed to be dry currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 16, 2016 Author Share Posted June 16, 2016 It's raining heavily in places in Northern and Central PA that were supposed to be dry currently. Those areas on the Euro and HRRR were supposed to get heavy rains this morning. But you can see how the northern edge of the line basically hits a wall when it tries to come east so it's forced under. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/rloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Those areas on the Euro and HRRR were supposed to get heavy rains this morning. But you can see how the northern edge of the line basically hits a wall when it tries to come east so it's forced under. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/HRRRNE_CUR/rloop.html We're talking about two different MCS systems. I don't know how else to explain it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 We're talking about two different MCS systems. I don't know how else to explain it. if you look at the loop he posted, the current MCS hits a wall in the next few hours and is shunted south. The next one forms to the west of that and drops down to DCA area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 if you look at the loop he posted, the current MCS hits a wall in the next few hours and is shunted south. The next one forms to the west of that and drops down to DCA area. How can I trust a model that currently shows a severe warned MCS as a weak line of showers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 New Warnings SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGPAC023-033-047-161545-/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0015.160616T1504Z-160616T1545Z/BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA1104 AM EDT THU JUN 16 2016THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...CENTRAL CAMERON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...ELK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...CLEARFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...* UNTIL 1145 AM EDT* AT 1102 AM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINEEXTENDING FROM NEAR PUNXSUTAWNEY TO 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF NORTHERNCAMBRIA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.IMPACT...EXPECT TREE DAMAGE.* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... SANDY AROUND 1110 AM EDT.ROCKTON AROUND 1120 AM EDT. CURWENSVILLE AND S.B. ELLIOT STATEPARK AROUND 1130 AM EDT.CLEARFIELD...HYDE...PLYMPTONVILLE...WOODLAND...HOUTZDALE ANDJEFFRIES AROUND 1140 AM EDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDELUMBER CITY...BRISBIN...TROUTVILLE...WEEDVILLE...COALPORT...NEWWASHINGTON... DRIFTWOOD...IRVONA...GRAMPIAN AND MORRISDALE.FOR THOSE DRIVING ON INTERSTATE 80...THIS INCLUDES AREAS BETWEEN THEDUBOIS AND KYLERTOWN EXITS...SPECIFICALLY FROM MILE MARKERS 97 TO132.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING WIDESPREADWIND DAMAGE ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE ASTURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 when that sucker hits a brick wall around Harrisburg, don't come cryin' to me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Even the RGEM is clueless. This is valid 11AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 when that sucker hits a brick wall around Harrisburg, don't come cryin' to me.... Maybe it ends up happening like that and maybe it doesn't. My point has been made. If the model doesn't show the MCS to begin with then I'm not sure how it could be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 This is the line that eventually gets pushed Southeast. It doesn't even enter the State of Pennsylvania for three more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 lol good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 lol good luck While SBCAPE is meh we do have some elevated instability to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 It's that stupid weak Easterly flow causing all the problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 The 0z Euro completely lost the Tuesday torch. Monday is now warmer and a torch west of the immediate metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Cloudy all morning. 0.0" at Union/Springfield border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 The 0z Euro completely lost the Tuesday torch. Monday is now warmer and a torch west of the immediate metro. Maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 12z GFS is very weak with the cutoff low and it's a couple hundred miles east of hatteras - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Well looks like I was wrong about the MCS. In any event that's a pretty substaintail area of heavier showers building in NW NJ and up towards Rockland/Orange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 It's that stupid weak Easterly flow causing all the problems. mWeird. Surface wind here in wantagh is out of the west. A good wind for severe in these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Heavy downpour of badly needed rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 12z ECMWF has a max of 8.7" in Southern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Much needed rain falling at the moment.. Lgt-Mod rain with a temp of 65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 12z ECMWF has a max of 8.7" in Southern PA wow-amazing for a global model to show that with convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 So we've gone from potential LR above normal to two days of 90+ to one day to now no heat long term. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 So we've gone from potential LR above normal to two days of 90+ to one day to now no heat long term. Sigh. going to be some similarities to last summer in that the warmth is mid and late summer IMO. Can't remember the last time that an advertised warm up around here didn't exceed expectations but came in more modest instead. still 4 days away so it can always change especially if the cutoff is further east and/or weaker than progged. GFS Was pretty weak with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 12z Euro does a cyclonic loop with the LP offshore this weekend into Monday with most of the rain staying to our south and east. A few showers back in over LI but not much rain. A cooling onshore flow will prevail and the warm up on Tuesday is less impressive than earlier runs. Could be some nice surf per the Euro wave model with strong winds off the East Coast. How does Saturday look down the shore? Cloudy and cool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Lol..I wouldnt put any stock in flip flopping models..ill trust the nws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Slightly over .50" total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 12z Euro does a cyclonic loop with the LP offshore this weekend into Monday with most of the rain staying to our south and east. A few showers back in over LI but not much rain. A cooling onshore flow will prevail and the warm up on Tuesday is less impressive than earlier runs. Could be some nice surf per the Euro wave model with strong winds off the East Coast. I'm allllll about that. Let's see what happens. Water temps are way cold compared to onshore temps due to all the upwelling. Has been keeping people out of the water which is fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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