forkyfork Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 savannah isn't the mid atlantic not a single gfes member supports the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 Lol forky on a roll todayExcept I said the OP not the GEFS. The OP had 1-3" of rain all through Western PA, parts of MD and VA. Like I said, Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 the gfs has two separate cutoffs instead of one phased system like the euro. it's not a cutoff when it produces rain over PA/VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 That was one hot stretch I remember being in NYC for a day at the end of that stretch with my friend. Brutal one for sure weather-wise, though the day itself was nice to remember. Still, not the best of ideas to be walking under the sun when it's 95/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 The nam destroys us Thursday night into Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 The nam destroys us Thursday night into Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 the gfs continues with the no phase solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 the gfs continues with the no phase solution It will be interesting to see what the 00z EURO and GGEM do with the 00z NAM jumping on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 GGEM shifted well Northeast. 1"+ for a lot of Central and Southern NJ. Still many more runs to get it sorted out. Seems like the activity on Thursday is convective and we know how much modeling struggles with convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 14, 2016 Author Share Posted June 14, 2016 It will be interesting to see what the 00z EURO and GGEM do with the 00z NAM jumping on board. The 0z OP Euro started to back off as expected and is moving closer to the EPS mean further offshore. It's pretty much a given that the OP will back off when the OP will is the outlier among its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 Still looks like we get rain Thursday into Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 6z NAM has rain NYC S and W Thurs/Fri-bone dry NE of there. I think the big Euro cutoff was Sunday however, so appears folks are talking about two different events here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 14, 2016 Author Share Posted June 14, 2016 6z NAM has rain NYC S and W Thurs/Fri-bone dry NE of there. I think the big Euro cutoff was Sunday however, so appears folks are talking about two different events here. The 0z Euro has chamber of commerce weather the next 10 days with only 0.3 of rain in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 The 0z Euro has chamber of commerce weather the next 10 days with only 0.3 of rain in NYC. yeah, looks like a dry pattern coming up. My last big rain was Sun Jun5th. Could go 2 weeks from then with almost nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 14, 2016 Author Share Posted June 14, 2016 yeah, looks like a dry pattern coming up. My last big rain was Sun Jun5th. Could go 2 weeks from then with almost nothing. I am glad that I finally got to see some heavy downpours here over the last week or so. Saw on the news last night that the dry conditions this spring caused a gypsy moth problem. http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2016/06/09/gypsy-moth-caterpillars/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 yeah, looks like a dry pattern coming up. My last big rain was Sun Jun5th. Could go 2 weeks from then with almost nothing. Only around .6 for me on the 5th, the grass isn't deep green any more, starting to fade out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 Only around .6 for me on the 5th, the grass isn't deep green any more, starting to fade out. same here, it's got that summer look to it now, when it's mowed the thatch is drier and the grass is not growing nearly as fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 any updates on the 84 hour nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 14, 2016 Author Share Posted June 14, 2016 The big story over the next week or so will be the potential record heat wave and 600 dm ridge over the SW US. That would be pretty close to record 500 mb heights and heat for that area. Friday through next Tuesday...Confidence continues to increase that we will see a major, if nothistoric heat wave during this period. The operational GFS, alongwith most of its respective ensemble members now show 500mb heightsrising AOA 600dm by Sunday, then holding at, or near these levelsinto next Tuesday as the upper low center along the Pac NW coastweakens and strong longwave trofing drops southward along the EastCoast. These 500mb heights, along with 850mb temperatures in the 35-38C range are very close to what we saw during the late June 1990heat wave when Phoenix Sky Harbor recorded temperatures as high as122F. Thus, confidence is now quite high that we will seetemperatures approach these levels during this period, especially onSunday and Monday. It also now appears, given the latesteuro/gfs/gem output, that very strong ridging aloft over the DesertSouthwest will persist into at least the middle part of next week,which will likely mean that our current Excessive Heat Watch willhave to be extended even further into the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 any updates on the 84 hour nam? Thursday morning looks like the main (only) show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 Thursday morning looks like the main (only) show i was kidding. the gfs lost the southern cutoff completely and heats us up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 i was kidding. the gfs lost the southern cutoff completely and heats us up Once again, the GFS schools the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 14, 2016 Author Share Posted June 14, 2016 Once again, the GFS schools the Euro. Not really since it had the same solution also in earlier runs. But the EPS and GEFS had the right more suppressed idea. That's why ensemble forecasting is one of the biggest model advances of the last 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 The Euro is still hanging onto the big closed ULL. Southern areas still get dumped on Thursday but the ULL closes off too far East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 The Euro is still hanging onto the big closed ULL. Southern areas still get dumped on Thursday but the ULL closes off too far East. what's it got for Sunday? that was the bigger event than Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 Putting the cut off aside, the risk for Thursday is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 what's it got for Sunday? that was the bigger event than Thursday. Nice weather for Sunday and the best chance for rain is Thursday and Friday. Right now it has .25 for NYC and less for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 what's it got for Sunday? that was the bigger event than Thursday. Sunny skies and warmth inland with Easterly flow at the beaches. Closed low sitting about halfway between Bermuda and here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 Nice weather for Sunday and the best chance for rain is Thursday and Friday. Right now it has .25 for NYC and less for you. I wouldn't say nice weather at the immediate coast. It has backdoor marine layer written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 I wouldn't say nice weather at the immediate coast. It has backdoor marine layer written all over it. Saturday looks a bit dicey along the coast but Sunday it's fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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