psv88 Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 It looks like the blocking might go strong through the first quarter of July. I wonder if it keeps going straight at various levels through next winter without ever really leaving. Hot summer seems completely off the table for the Northeast, I am thinking for North of DC a complete shut out. The GEFS and CFS make this point for next 2-3 weeks. lol what? I can't tell if your posts are serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 this run backed off from the inches of rain idea on the 12z run. i expect that trend to continue That's only because it shifted the axis of heaviest rain a bit further West into Central and Eastern PA. Thy synoptic setup is the same. Would hardly expect modeling to have an exact idea four days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Except 1 storm produced the largest snowstorm in NYC's history. And models picked it up from 8 days out. It did. But for that one win, it had about 7-10 fantasies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 We have record blocking and are still above average for June. Blocking doesnt mean cold. Above the 1981-2010 averages which is broken monthly these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 lol what? I can't tell if your posts are serious. I'm thinking most of the heat will be along the coastal plain in the east this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 I'm thinking most of the heat will be along the coastal plain in the east this summer. alot of warmer than average water just off the coast, so that would argue for warmth along the coastal plain especially as we get deeper into summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 We have record blocking and are still above average for June. Blocking doesnt mean cold. There has been no record blocking in June; not sure where this notion originated. As discussed on the previous page, the location of the block in early/mid spring was not particularly conducive to persistent colder than normal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Well the way a few posters have hyped the blocking you would think we were in the artic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 the cutoff is even weaker on the gfs and actually retrogresses west while heat builds over us. it reminds me of july 2013 a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 the cutoff is even weaker on the gfs and actually retrogresses west while heat builds over us. it reminds me of july 2013 a littleThat was one hot stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 13, 2016 Author Share Posted June 13, 2016 There has been no record blocking in June; not sure where this notion originated. As discussed on the previous page, the location of the block in early/mid spring was not particularly conducive to persistent colder than normal here. The near to record blocking this spring prevented April and May from repeating the extreme warm departure that we saw in March. Blocking doesn't always mean below normal monthly departures even during the winter. But it was enough for transient cold shots and the first below zero reading in NYC since 94 with the blizzard and follow up snows. June is starting out with a strong enough blocking to prevent the first half of the month from repeating the heat wave and record warmth of the last week of May. But the EPS weakens this high lat blocking pattern going forward so the heat will be allowed to return. Blocking is also more than just raw indices since the 500 mb anomalies can overlap main teleconnection regions. And as wavelengths change, so can seasonal responses. There is also a distinction between high and midlatitude blocking. The record warmth over the last year was the result of blocking near the Great Lakes and Northeast getting stuck in place during the super Nino pattern. The midwest also saw a midlatitude block getting stuck in place resulting in summer in March 2012 with a La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 the cutoff is even weaker on the gfs and actually retrogresses west while heat builds over us. it reminds me of july 2013 a little 12z GEFS are well North of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 12z GEFS are well North of the OP. no it's not enjoy your warm wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Looks like a torch on the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 12z euro continues with its disaster this weekend. On its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 NYC was only 83, LGA was only 86, EWR was 88 per Daily Climate Reports this afternoon. Thanks uofmiami. I updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 12z euro continues with its disaster this weekend. On its own even the canadian has nothing. why is this model in love with east coast storms lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 even the canadian has nothing. why is this model in love with east coast storms lately It's the new 384 hr Gfs! The update messed with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 The near to record blocking this spring prevented April and May from repeating the extreme warm departure that we saw in March. Blocking doesn't always mean below normal monthly departures even during the winter. But it was enough for transient cold shots and the first below zero reading in NYC since 94 with the blizzard and follow up snows. June is starting out with a strong enough blocking to prevent the first half of the month from repeating the heat wave and record warmth of the last week of May. But the EPS weakens this high lat blocking pattern going forward so the heat will be allowed to return. Blocking is also more than just raw indices since the 500 mb anomalies can overlap main teleconnection regions. And as wavelengths change, so can seasonal responses. There is also a distinction between high and midlatitude blocking. The record warmth over the last year was the result of blocking near the Great Lakes and Northeast getting stuck in place during the super Nino pattern. The midwest also saw a midlatitude block getting stuck in place resulting in summer in March 2012 with a La Nina. Definitely no disagreement there. I'm a big believer in utilizing the 500mb anomalies rather than numerical values as well. Of course, blocking will imply different weather results for different regions, depending upon where that block is located. A block centered over New England/Quebec can result in brutally hot weather in August, while, a block further northeast over Greenland is typically the best location for persistent (not necessarily extreme) Northeast cold weather. We have seen quite a few EPO/Alaskan blocks since 2013 which delivered bouts of extreme cold, but overall, they've been rather transient for the East Coast. The real sustained colder than normal patterns in our area (outside of summer) generally coincide with protracted Greenland blocking, which hasn't been present since the 2010-11 winter really. There was a brief, moderate -NAO in late winter of 2012-13, but not too anomalous. The interior Northeast and Great lakes tend to be chillier via -EPO periods versus the coastal Northeast, as a +NAO in the means keeps the SE ridge resilient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 13, 2016 Author Share Posted June 13, 2016 Definitely no disagreement there. I'm a big believer in utilizing the 500mb anomalies rather than numerical values as well. Of course, blocking will imply different weather results for different regions, depending upon where that block is located. A block centered over New England/Quebec can result in brutally hot weather in August, while, a block further northeast over Greenland is typically the best location for persistent (not necessarily extreme) Northeast cold weather. We have seen quite a few EPO/Alaskan blocks since 2013 which delivered bouts of extreme cold, but overall, they've been rather transient for the East Coast. The real sustained colder than normal patterns in our area (outside of summer) generally coincide with protracted Greenland blocking, which hasn't been present since the 2010-11 winter really. There was a brief, moderate -NAO in late winter of 2012-13, but not too anomalous. The interior Northeast and Great lakes tend to be chillier via -EPO periods versus the coastal Northeast, as a +NAO in the means keeps the SE ridge resilient. Yeah, sometimes one factor can overpower another one and create a different response than we typically see. The developing super El Nino turned one of the strongest May -EPO blocks in 2015 into nearly our warmest May ever. That SW Nino trough was enough to force a strong ridge over the Northeast instead of the usually lower heights even in the spring for such a -EPO. So there can always be new combinations of 500 mb patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 12z euro continues with its disaster this weekend. On its own The Euro was actually wetter than 00z for a lot of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Do you think the EURO OP could actually be on to something. Don't dismiss it if the ensembles start showing it. The pattern over the Northeast supports it if you like it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Do you think the EURO OP could actually be on to something. Don't dismiss it if the ensembles start showing it. The pattern over the Northeast supports it if you like it or not.Says who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Says who? dt says INTERESTING the fabulous european Model far and away the best weather model in the world ay Day 7 is now as good as it was at day 3 ...20 years ago.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 13, 2016 Author Share Posted June 13, 2016 dt says INTERESTING the fabulous european Model far and away the best weather model in the world ay Day 7 is now as good as it was at day 3 ...20 years ago.. That slide he showed is talking about the ensembles which don't loop the storm back into the coast but take it OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Well the 12z EPS is fairly wet for Thursday and part of Friday. On Sunday morning it has the closed ULL sitting roughly 100 miles E SE of ACY but it looks fairly weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 The 12z Euro OP really cranks the LLJ Saturday night into early Sunday morning. You're looking at 65-70kt winds over most of LI at 925mb. At least some of that could mix down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 The 12z Euro OP really cranks the LLJ Saturday night into early Sunday morning. You're looking at 65-70kt winds over most of LI at 925mb. At least some of that could mix down. assuming the solution is correct-looks like it's all out on its own. Even JB tossing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Think of the airmass as a soft cushioned seat. If something sits on it for too long the seat cushion dents in for awhile. The persistent trough over the Northeast is like an elephant on that cushion for weeks. It will take weeks for the memory indentation to fade out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 assuming the solution is correct-looks like it's all out on its own. Even JB tossing it.18z GFS has the monster cut off too with inches of rain for the mid Atlantic. Only difference is where the ULL closed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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