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June 2016 Discussions/Observations


bluewave

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Around a 30 degree temperature drop for many locations from the highs yesterday.

It's pretty rare to get 2 days so close together with 30 degree temperature drops

at a place like Newark during the first half of June.

 

A drop from 91 to 55 on the 11th and a fall of 88 yesterday the 12th to 58 today the 13th.

 

You can thank the blocking for interrupting the heat from taking hold.

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The Euro is a multi day disaster towards the end of this week.

 

The EPS are stronger with the high to the north and further SE with the low than the OP.

 

Don't have much confidence in post 120 hr Op Euro runs without EPS support.

 

It may come down to how strong the block to our north is at the time on whether the low

comes further north or more suppressed south like EPS.

 

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Around a 30 degree temperature drop for many locations from the highs yesterday.

It's pretty rare to get 2 days so close together with 30 degree temperature drops

at a place like Newark during the first half of June.

 

A drop from 91 to 55 on the 11th and a fall of 88 yesterday the 12th to 58 today the 13th.

 

You can thank the blocking for interrupting the heat from taking hold.

another example of heat to cool in one day is June 14th, 1961...Max was 88 early and the min was 53 with rain later in the day...it was 96 on June 13th so it was quite the turn a round...

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It looks like the blocking might go strong through the first quarter of July. I wonder if it keeps going straight at various levels through next winter without ever really leaving. Hot summer seems completely off the table for the Northeast, I am thinking for North of DC a complete shut out. The GEFS and CFS make this point for next 2-3 weeks.

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The anticipated alterations to the NHEM circulation initiate by D7, and the transition into a hot/furnace regime across much of the country ensues. Geopotential heights significantly decrease near Greenland and AK/Beaufort Sea, resulting in an intensification of the zonal flow across the mid-latitudes. Expecting widespread 100s to develops in the Mid-west/Central US with differential advection induced MCS activity around the periphery of the mid level ridge. The summer pattern truly begins post June 20th.

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It looks like the blocking might go strong through the first quarter of July. I wonder if it keeps going straight at various levels through next winter without ever really leaving. Hot summer seems completely off the table for the Northeast, I am thinking for North of DC a complete shut out. The GEFS and CFS make this point for next 2-3 weeks.

 

 

Yeah - I'll go with a no on that one.

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The EPS are stronger with the high to the north and further SE with the low than the OP.

 

Don't have much confidence in post 120 hr Op Euro runs without EPS support.

 

It may come down to how strong the block to our north is at the time on whether the low

comes further north or more suppressed south like EPS.

 

attachicon.gifps2png-atls05-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-VBOLcV.png

this run backed off from the inches of rain idea on the 12z run. i expect that trend to continue 

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It looks like the blocking might go strong through the first quarter of July. I wonder if it keeps going straight at various levels through next winter without ever really leaving. Hot summer seems completely off the table for the Northeast, I am thinking for North of DC a complete shut out. The GEFS and CFS make this point for next 2-3 weeks.

Not happening lol
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this run backed off from the inches of rain idea on the 12z run. i expect that trend to continue 

 

The one weakness of the OP Euro is that it can be too amplified after 120 hrs.

But the good news is that the EPS are usually correct when they disagree with the OP.

Interesting how the OP almost always finds the right solution 96-120 after being off 132-144 to 168.

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The one weakness of the OP Euro is that it can be too amplified after 120 hrs.

But the good news is that the EPS are usually correct when they disagree with the OP.

Interesting how the OP almost always finds the right solution 96-120 after being off 132-144 to 168.

it did that all winter.  Remember how excited we all were for the day 6-8 threat only to see if evaporate in the next few runs....

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It looks like the blocking might go strong through the first quarter of July. I wonder if it keeps going straight at various levels through next winter without ever really leaving. Hot summer seems completely off the table for the Northeast, I am thinking for North of DC a complete shut out. The GEFS and CFS make this point for next 2-3 weeks.

 

We have record blocking and are still above average for June.

Blocking doesnt mean cold.

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it did that all winter.  Remember how excited we all were for the day 6-8 threat only to see if evaporate in the next few runs....

 

Except 1 storm produced the largest snowstorm in NYC's history. And models picked it up from 8 days out.

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