bluewave Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Ensembles indicating a pattern more typical for El Nino/strong +PDO to start June than La Nina. While it's still early in the La Nina development, ensembles have the Aleutian Low north of Hawaii which is more in the El Nino/+PDO camp. The very warm SST's off the West Coast and south of Alaska continue the record +PDO. Both EPS and GEFS want to strengthen this low and build the ridge over Western North America during the first week of June. It will be interesting to see how the anomalous SST warmth there interacts with the developing La Nina as the summer progresses. EPS looking more El Nino +PDO to start June Opposite pattern than typical El Nino to La Nina transition summer last seen in 2010 April set new monthly +PDO record and pattern continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 June decade average temperature and extremes...so far the highest temperature for June in the 2010's is 95...The minimum is 50 which is the highest so far...it would be the first decade without a temperature below 50... June......Ave temp...max...min...ave max/min...1870's.....70.4.......na.....na.....na.....na1880's.....70.5.......96.....48.....91.0.....51.51890's.....70.9.......97.....48.....93.6.....53.41900's.....70.0.......95.....48.....91.1.....52.71910's.....69.0.......95.....47.....90.9.....51.11920's.....70.1.......99.....45.....92.7.....51.01930's.....71.6.....101.....47.....93.7.....52.41940's.....71.5.......99.....44.....93.9.....51.11950's.....71.2.....100.....48.....94.2.....51.91960's.....72.0.....101.....48.....95.5.....52.71970's.....71.0.......95.....46.....91.1.....52.01980's.....71.7.......98.....47.....92.7.....52.61990's.....72.2.......98.....49.....92.8.....52.62000's.....71.3.......96.....49.....91.4.....52.52010's.....72.4.......95.....50.....91.4.....53.8....1870/1880-2009 ave 70.9.....101.....44.....92.7.....52.11980-2009 ave 71.7.......98.....47.....92.3.....52.6 ................................................................................ warmest average temperature and year.76.2 194375.4 196675.2 199474.6 201074.5 198474.3 192574.3 194974.3 195774.2 197174.1 199174.1 1899coolest64.2 190365.2 188165.7 191666.8 192666.8 190267.2 195867.3 192767.4 192867.5 200967.5 1897wettest June and year10.27 2003 10.10 201310.06 20099.78 19039.30 19728.79 19898.55 20067.76 18877.58 19757.13 19387.05 18717.04 19286.88 1922driest0.02 19490.59 19990.98 18941.00 19011.14 18801.17 19661.25 18981.26 19061.27 19651.27 1908warmest max. temperature and year101 1966101 1934100 195299 192599 194399 195699 1964Coolest max. temperature and year81 190384 200984 188684 191685 198586 192886 1972coolest min. temperature and year44 1945...6/145 1929...6/346 1972...6/1147 1938...6/147 1946...6/347 1945...6/647 1945...6/547 1879...6/747 1915...6/347 1932...6/847 1980...6/9warmest min. temp. and year.58 189258 191158 195258 198158 1989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 If the dry pattern persists in June, I would believe CPK and surrounding areas will be put under a moderate drought. They are running over 7 inches below normal since the start of met Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 26, 2016 Author Share Posted May 26, 2016 Ensembles signaling that the first week of June doesn't look as warm as the last week of May with the ridge building over Western North America yet again. This is more of a +PDO El Nino looking pattern than the typical one for a developing La Nina in June. It's still early in the month, so it's hard to tell what happens for the whole month. We would need a pattern change to ridge north of Hawaii or Aleutians with Western trough for the classic hot Nino to Nina June like we saw in 2005 and 2010. Be interesting to see how things turn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 That trough over the east looks fairly weak though-perhaps we just cool to average temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 It looks like a -NAO tries to develop in June with high heights over most of the Arctic, so it wouldn't be surprising if we saw a few troughs. Those big lows over the Plains have to move east eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 If we end up with an average summer (give or take) it would fall into line with the last 3 years with that big +PDO and the ensuing cooler summers (as compared to '10-'12. Would think however that the in-close warm water in the Atlantic would keep the NE on the warm side however. (with maybe the cooler air relegated to the Lakes region?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 Dreaming of a soaker like last year to start June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 Dreaming of a soaker like last year to start June. that was a crazy week...went from 85 and 75 dewpoints to 5 days of low 60's and rain/drizzle/overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael05192016 Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 Welcome to June 2009 if the teleconnections and models are correct. Can't hide from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted May 30, 2016 Share Posted May 30, 2016 Actually, a dismal start to June following a late May heat wave been normal the last few years. May 2013 ended with a 94, June 2013 gave us the 2-4 inch Andrea w/ lower/mid 60s chill on the 7th and more washouts on the 10th and 13th. May 2015 heat wave led to hot but wet 31st, and cold/wet sub-60 1st and 2nd of June. May 2012 heat wave led to a rather chilly June 4. Only in 2011 and 2014 was the area able to avoid having a particularly chilly+rainy day at the start of June. Friday is already looking dismal -- highs barely make 60 on the GFS and the Euro hits an inch in one six hour period. GFS precipitation and Euro temps are also not looking great but they're not as bad as the first two. Also, Euro temps take a nosedive on the morning of June 8. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted May 30, 2016 Share Posted May 30, 2016 12z EURO ENS say that if you're looking for heat, forget it. No ridging in the east for the entire period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 30, 2016 Author Share Posted May 30, 2016 This just looks like the continuation of the the recent pattern of alternating between record heat and periods of strong to record blocking limiting the heat potential. Remember the record heat in November and December giving way to record blocking in January and February. Then early March record heat followed by the blocking returning Late March and after. We just got the record high of 96 at Newark so its time for the blocking to return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 Will this mean a sub-70 high? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 Welcome to June 2009 if the teleconnections and models are correct. Can't hide from it. May 2009 was much much colder then this May, which will end above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 12z EURO ENS say that if you're looking for heat, forget it. No ridging in the east for the entire period. Yawn. We will still be in the 80s and above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 31, 2016 Author Share Posted May 31, 2016 Figures that the biggest NAO drop of the year waits until June to happen. Looks like the strongest early June NAO fall since 2012. 2012 6 1 -1.7142012 6 2 -1.9692012 6 3 -2.1442012 6 4 -2.2002012 6 5 -2.0252012 6 6 -1.8202012 6 7 -1.357 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 Why are people talking about temps below 70..the coolness is being exaggerated as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 Why are people talking about temps below 70..the coolness is being exaggerated as usual There was ONE. ONE mention of 70s, and it was in the form of a question. The only exaggerating in here is by you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 Will this mean a sub-70 high? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk In the summer months if it's a sunny day it's nearly impossible to get highs in the 60's.Usually the temps are near 80,even with the coolest air masses..your cool departure comes at night..If it's cloudy however or rainy,then yes you can see temps in the 60's or 70's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 In the summer months if it's a sunny day it's nearly impossible to get highs in the 60's.Usually the temps are near 80,even with the coolest air masses..your cool departure comes at night..If it's cloudy however or rainy,then yes you can see temps in the 60's or 70's But clouds like the first week of May can do wonders for negative maximum departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 the only July day in my lifetime that had a max below 70 with Sunny skies all day was on 7/5/1979...69/53..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 the only July day in my lifetime that had a max below 70 with Sunny skies all day was on 7/5/1979...69/53..... wow..that will never happen again unless their's an ice age Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 the only July day in my lifetime that had a max below 70 with Sunny skies all day was on 7/5/1979...69/53..... I was just about to say I remember a day in 1997 that was like 62 with 3 inches of rain. Then I realized you wrote sunny day. I can't imagine how that is even possible in summer, you would need almost zero wind and insanely cold 850s. I would think even behind a strong cold front the wind would be too strong and you'd mix from 700mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 the only July day in my lifetime that had a max below 70 with Sunny skies all day was on 7/5/1979...69/53..... Impressive troughing, to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 the only July day in my lifetime that had a max below 70 with Sunny skies all day was on 7/5/1979...69/53..... How cold were the 850's? Must have been under 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 How cold were the 850's? Must have been under 5. 0C at Albany, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 0C at Albany, wow. Wow. What's amazing is how little 850 temps matter in the summer in the greater scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 the only July day in my lifetime that had a max below 70 with Sunny skies all day was on 7/5/1979...69/53..... That's incredible. I've seen many July and August days with highs in the 60s, but all were under cloudy or rainy conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 31, 2016 Share Posted May 31, 2016 There was ONE. ONE mention of 70s, and it was in the form of a question. The only exaggerating in here is by you. There was talk in another thread about Fridays highs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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