Geos Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Flash flood potential for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Marginal is gone for tomorrow for MI. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 MKX discussion on possible MCS and heavy rainfall. THURSDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.Thursday might end up being hot and humid with quiet weather.Southern WI will be in between shortwaves, with one exiting to ournortheast Thu morning and the next arriving Thu night.925mb temps will be increasing to 21 or 22C by Thu afternoon. Thiswould yield max temps toward the mid 80s, although sunshine will benecessary. The NAM brings remnants of an MCS through northern IL. Ifthis happens and southern WI stays under widespread cloud cover formuch of the day, then the max temps in the mid 80s is overdone.There will be no focused low level jet (LLJ) or warm air advectionwith the shortwave Thu night, so kept chances for storms on thelower side.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Forecast confidence is medium.Friday will bring the next good chance for showers andthunderstorms. The closed upper low over the southwest states willprogress northeast into the upper Midwest through Saturday. Repeatedwaves of vorticity advection, a steady feed of moisture from theGulf and the LLJ directed into southern WI support one or morerounds of convection during this period. Expect CAPE to be around1000 j/kg or less, but the warm profile is showing tall, skinnyCAPE. Shear will continue to be around 20 kts. These conditionssupport thunderstorms with the potential for a few to grow strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Wow. The amount of severe weather in the lower Great Lakes this year, including WI and MN, is really low. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2016_annual_summary.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Marginal is gone for tomorrow for MI. Lol.Man this year sucks so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 zzzzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Wow. The amount of severe weather in the lower Great Lakes this year, including WI and MN, is really low. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2016_annual_summary.html A lot more stable air masses than unstable ones this spring. Had one t-storm that had some gusty winds over 40mph and that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Man this year sucks so far.You know it's bad when the UP is doing better than us.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 NWS Chicago @NWSChicago 34s35 seconds ago 50 mph wind gust observed at Aurora Airport in Sugar Grove at 4:14pm CDT. Let us know of estimated/observed wind gusts w/tstorms. #ilwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Sounds like it's getting a little rough to the southwest. https://twitter.com/NWSChicago/status/735584448088047617 NWS Chicago @NWSChicago 5m5 minutes ago NWS Chicago Retweeted NWS Chicago Wind gusts of up to 50-55 mph, nickel size hail & torrential rain with this area of storms. Head indoors. #ilwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Write up from NWS Marquette about the tornadoes yesterday. Both EF-1 with 90 mph http://www.weather.gov/mqt/Marquette_County_Tornado_May_24_2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted May 26, 2016 Author Share Posted May 26, 2016 Although SPC only lists a 20% chance of a watch, they just posted a Mesoscale Discussion for most of IN (and SE IL) concerning this morning's system--even though IN isn't currently in a marginal risk: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0738.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Heck of a storm moving through Central MI. 80 mph winds reported it West Branch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 Day 3 for Michigan for Sunday. Might end up a slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 Next timeframe I'm watching for the possibility of more organized severe weather (beyond marginal/slight risks) would be a couple weeks from now. Obviously that's a long way off though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 Next timeframe I'm watching for the possibility of more organized severe weather (beyond marginal/slight risks) would be a couple weeks from now. Obviously that's a long way off though. Euro weeklies have the EPO going positive while the PNA goes negative. NAO and AO stay neutral near mid-June. Better pattern incoming? Probably not the place for this, but thought I'd just comment on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 Euro weeklies have the EPO going positive while the PNA goes negative. NAO and AO stay neutral near mid-June. Better pattern incoming? Probably not the place for this, but thought I'd just comment on it. Supposedly the 12-13th looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted May 27, 2016 Share Posted May 27, 2016 Supposedly the 12-13th looks good. Yea, saw some people posting the BSR on Twitter. Suppose we should take this subject to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted May 28, 2016 Author Share Posted May 28, 2016 Although there's still a marginal risk in the Upper Midwest, perhaps a low-end, isolated tornado threat in that part of the subforum today? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO NRN MO/WRN IL REGION... GRADUAL EXPANSION/INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID/LATE AFTN ACROSS THIS REGION WHILE ENTIRE REGIME SHIFTS GENERALLY NEWD. ONE OR MORE ARCS OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FROM NRN/ERN MO ACROSS IA TOWARD SERN MN...MOVING INTO PORTIONS IL/WI WITH TIME. FRAGMENTED MOISTURE FIELD AND WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG OVER MOST OF THIS AREA...WHILE DEEP SHEAR REMAINS MRGL AS UPPER SYSTEM WEAKENS. MRGLLY SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MORE INTENSE/PERSISTENT CELLS. WHILE TORNADO POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT INVOF SLOWLY MIGRATING LOW-PRESSURE AREA...WEAKNESS OF THAT AS WELL AS OF ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC FIELDS AND NEAR-SFC WIND FIELDS SHOULD KEEP HODOGRAPHS AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS RELATIVELY SMALL. EXCEPTION MAY BE WHERE LOCALIZED/LOW-PREDICTABILITY BOUNDARY OR STORM-SCALE PROCESSES DOMINATE MESOSCALE TO SUBSYNOPTIC FORCINGS. AS SUCH...OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL FOR MORE THAN MRGL PROBABILITIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 1630z outlook upgraded to slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 I don't think anyone caught this. Tornado touchdown in Brandon, WI. EF1 http://www.weather.gov/mkx/052716-brandon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Looking forward to some time lapse action from Cyclone this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 from the SPC regarding IA, IL and WI POCKETS OF MODERATE WARM SECTOR HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY OVERNRN/ERN IA AND ADJACENT NW IL/SW WI AND FAR SRN MN...S OF STALLEDFRONT IN MN/WI...AND W OF RESIDUAL TSTM DEBRIS IN IL. SATELLITESUGGESTS THAT ASCENT WITH WRN IA VORT LOBE WILL OVERSPREAD NRN ANDERN IA FOLLOWING MAX HEATING...WITH ASSOCIATED 500 MB TEMPS AOBMINUS 14C CONTRIBUTING TO AREAL DESTABILIZATION. ALTHOUGH GRADUALWEAKENING OF UPR SYSTEM WILL KEEP MEAN FLOW COMPARATIVELY MODESTRELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS...RESIDUAL BAND OF 40+ KT SWLY 700-500 MBFLOW ON E SIDE OF VORT LOBE WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SHORTLINES OF SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND.AND...ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXHIBIT VERTICALVEER-BACK PATTERNS...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F ANDENHANCED LOW-LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NEAR STALLED FRONT...CANNOT RULEOUT THE RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR FAVORABLESTORM-BOUNDARY INTERACTION. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTERSUNSET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted May 28, 2016 Author Share Posted May 28, 2016 Watch possible for E IA, NE MO, and W IL later this afternoon (IMO probably a Thunderstorm watch even though SPC isn't ruling out the isolated tornado threat): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0769.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0769 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN MISSOURI/ERN IOWA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF IL/WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 281737Z - 281930Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE 20-22Z TIME FRAME. TIMING REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT A WATCH SEEMS PROBABLE AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT /PIVOTING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY/ IS READILY APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHICH PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WHILE APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH 20-22Z. INSOLATION ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO EASTERN IOWA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AS CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE IS ALSO INCREASING DESPITE SOMEWHAT MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH DIFFERENTIAL UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND PERHAPS WEAK MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER STEEPENING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND MODEST STRENGTHENING OF 850-700 MB FLOW TO 30-40+ KT...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE MORE DISCRETE INITIAL STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL TRANSITIONING TO MORE GENERAL POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS APPEARS MORE PRONOUNCED...WITH UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO AN EVOLVING ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ..KERR/CORFIDI.. 05/28/2016 ATTN...WFO...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted May 28, 2016 Author Share Posted May 28, 2016 Severe Thunderstorm Watch just posted for SE MN, SW WI, E IA, NW/WC IL, and far NE MO: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0225.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 You can really see the cells fire off within the watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 28, 2016 Share Posted May 28, 2016 Marginal introduced for areas further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 Severe t-storms into La Salle County. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL841 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016ILC099-290215-/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-160529T0215Z/LA SALLE IL-841 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDTFOR NORTHERN LA SALLE COUNTY...AT 841 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NAPLATE...ORNEAR OTTAWA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...OTTAWA...PERU...OGLESBY...LA SALLE...UTICA...NORTH UTICA...TONICA...GRANDRIDGE...NAPLATE...CEDAR POINT AND LEONORE.THIS INCLUDES... BUFFALO ROCK STATE PARK...ILLINOIS VALLEY COMMUNITYCOLLEGE...MATTHIESSEN STATE PARK...AND STARVED ROCK STATE PARK.INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES... I-39 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 46 AND 62. I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 77 AND 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 Had a 61mph gust as the severe cell went through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 29, 2016 Share Posted May 29, 2016 Had a 61mph gust as the severe cell went throughWhat time was that at? Going to use that as an LSR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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