Brian5671 Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 In honor of our favorite rain lover from NJ.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 20, 2016 Author Share Posted May 20, 2016 NAM drops a good 1-2 inches across the region, would be the heaviest rainfall since late Feb and screw NYC out of the driest spring on record.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Why couldn't this wait until June 1st? Hope this is another fail so we break the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Why couldn't this wait until June 1st? Hope this is another fail so we break the record.It's coming back the other way so we'll avoid the driest spring it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 20, 2016 Author Share Posted May 20, 2016 Still some spread amongs the models. GFS has very little for the city N and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Cmc very wet for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Lol CMC is 3+ for the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 20, 2016 Author Share Posted May 20, 2016 Lol CMC is 3+ for the metro area safe to say no one is getting 3 inches, but it sends the message the storm is coming. It's slower too-Sat night into a good chunk of Sunday especially NYC and points N and E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 12z Euro is around .25 for NYC and 1.00 FOK as it keeps the seasonal trend of blocked storm tracks dumping the heaviest precip to the south and east of NYC. Pretty impressive that the last 1 inch event for NYC was February 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 12z Euro is around .25 for NYC and 1.00 FOK as it keeps the seasonal trend of blocked storm tracks dumping the heaviest precip to the south and east of NYC. Pretty impressive that the last 1 inch event for NYC was February 24th. It came NW of last night. It's still adjusting, IMO. Euro has been struggling since the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 It came NW of last night. It's still adjusting, IMO. Euro has been struggling since the winter. It could still come NW in later runs but the JP would still be to our south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 20, 2016 Author Share Posted May 20, 2016 It could still come NW in later runs but the JP would still be to our south and east. Most modeling shows that now regardless of how far west they are with the precip shield. I think the CMC is the only one with a JP over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Most modeling shows that now regardless of how far west they are with the precip shield. I think the CMC is the only one with a JP over us The models haven't been too good with rainfall forecasts this spring outside the HRRR short term range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 It came NW of last night. It's still adjusting, IMO. Euro has been struggling since the winter. GFS hasn't really been on board for more than a half inch. NAM has been very consistent 1-1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 It could still come NW in later runs but the JP would still be to our south and east. I disagree. The Rgem jackpots NYC, CT and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 GFS hasn't really been on board for more than a half inch. NAM has been very consistent 1-1.5" Gefs has .75"-1.25". Op is likely too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 20, 2016 Author Share Posted May 20, 2016 I disagree. The Rgem jackpots NYC, CT and LI. Not really-heaviest is S and E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Not really-heaviest is S and E I was talking about our NYC metro area specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 20, 2016 Author Share Posted May 20, 2016 If the RGEM is too far NW by 40 miles, most see very little. Conversely if it shifts NW another 40 miles we're all soaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 NAM goes south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 But increased to 1.2"-1.5" for the city itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 20, 2016 Author Share Posted May 20, 2016 4K nam is bone dry while the regular NAM gives many 1-2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 20, 2016 Author Share Posted May 20, 2016 4K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 20, 2016 Author Share Posted May 20, 2016 regular NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 4K Wow. That's bone dry for everyone, north and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Euro has .75+ by sandy hook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Lol GFS 18z .10 at best and nothing for sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 18z nam has 2.00+ for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 GFS says "what rain?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 20, 2016 Author Share Posted May 20, 2016 GFS says "what rain?"looks like the 4K nam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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