bjc3395 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 And this sounding is going on 13 hours old….of course, that was sort of the point of my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Yeah, but this is 12 hours ago. I guess I should've added that, I was unable to find a later sounding and I neglected to state that I was aware of the potential inaccuracy, but it was the best I had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 bingo. Speed shear, directional shear are a function of both direction and magnitude. Of course having 50 knots at 850 helps, but obviously therected are other ways to get it done. I don't think there was a boundary for augmentation anyway. Right. 15 kts at the surface and 35 kts at 850 in a similar direction might give you the same shear magnitude as 5 kts at the surface and 25 kts at 850, with a lot of veering. I guess I should've added that, I was unable to find a later sounding and I neglected to state that I was aware of the potential inaccuracy, but it was the best I had. 00 Soundings should come out soon. The sort of "best guess" of what a sounding might look like is typically one taken from the RAP analysis (though I'm starting to find out that these can be pretty bad too). College of dupage website has a good "point and click" interface with the RAP, so you can point to a location on a map at a given time and get a forecast sounding. If you want an approximately current sounding, find the most recently initialized RAP run and look at the forecast hour that corresponds to the current time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 A potentially rain-wrapped couplet has appeared for the last three scans near/between Memphis, TX and Childress, TX (just S of Estilline, TX).Can't figure out why there's not a tornado warning on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioWX Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 The Big Spring, TX supercell is going nuts again. Strong couplet and a confirmed tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 bingo. Speed shear, directional shear are a function of both direction and magnitude. Of course having 50 knots at 850 helps, but obviously therected are other ways to get it done. I don't think there was a boundary for augmentation anyway. The SPC mesoanalysis Velocity Tensor Magnitude product is worth a look sometimes, it's designed to detect boundaries. Note the bullseye. There was something going on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Multiple hooks and multiple couplets/TVSs on Big Spring, TX storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Right. 15 kts at the surface and 35 kts at 850 in a similar direction might give you the same shear magnitude as 5 kts at the surface and 25 kts at 850, with a lot of veering. 00 Soundings should come out soon. The sort of "best guess" of what a sounding might look like is typically one taken from the RAP analysis (though I'm starting to find out that these can be pretty bad too). College of dupage website has a good "point and click" interface with the RAP, so you can point to a location on a map at a given time and get a forecast sounding. If you want an approximately current sounding, find the most recently initialized RAP run and look at the forecast hour that corresponds to the current time. this is also where conceptual understanding helps big time, allowing you to play the day out in your head... perhaps seeing in your head how that skew-t might look later. Though that is difficult enough for some met students to do, let alone non mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Kelley Williamson in the TX PH. Large Wedge tornado. which city/county was that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Big couplet SW of Scott City, KS, with a brief tornado reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Pretty good day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Big couplet SW of Scott City, KS, with a brief tornado reported. Strong couplet, looks slightly broad though. EDIT: removed the word still due to the two previous scans exhibiting tight rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Strong couplet, still looks slightly broad though. Large and extremely dangerous reported 6 minutes ago with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Strong couplet, still looks slightly broad though. A few frames ago it was pretty tight... Had ~150kt gtg. Tightened up again, currently has 115kt gtg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Cell in KS is really impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Cell in KS is really impressive. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN WICHITA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 915 PM CDT * AT 828 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 13 MILES WEST OF FRIEND...AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Nearly stationary... lol Is this the time of the crawling supercells? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Nearly stationary... lol Is this the time of the crawling supercells? Gotta love marginal mid and upper level flow. Looking at preliminary numbers, its pretty fair to say this was a small/mid-sized regional tornado outbreak for the W/S. Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 From a parameter perspective, Wednesday looks scary. Just a question of whether storms will go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Gotta love marginal mid and upper level flow. Looking at preliminary numbers, its pretty fair to say this was a small/mid-sized regional tornado outbreak for the S. Plains.Yup, so much for meh days everyday, lol. Starting early. Now watch, the rest will be meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Gotta love marginal mid and upper level flow. Looking at preliminary numbers, its pretty fair to say this was a small/mid-sized regional tornado outbreak for the S. Plains. It's been a pretty great day, even more so when you account for them mostly staying in rural non-populated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 It's been a pretty great day, even more so when you account for them mostly staying in rural non-populated areas.Honestly, I don't think there's been one bit of damage with any of these, other then some power lines down, etc. Unless the Big Spring one damaged that airport that kept getting listed in the warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Yup, so much for meh days everyday, lol. Starting early. Now watch, the rest will be meh. That's the recent luck of the plains. If that happens there will need to be a #MakeThePlainsGreatAgain campaign to the weather gods. Anyways looks like there was a report at 8:30 that the Friend, KS tornado was a half-a-mile wide. Had multiple large tornadoes today, on about 4 different supercells, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 We are up to 30 tornado reports for the day. Some are likely duplicates since they are unfiltered, but still quite impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Big Spring cell still looks amazing reflectivity wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Still in progress according to the warning from DDC. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN FINNEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... NORTHEASTERN KEARNY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 915 PM CDT * AT 843 PM CDT...A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF FRIEND...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Big Spring cell still looks amazing reflectivity wise. Currently 105kt gtg couplet on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Picture from Reed of the wedge SW of Scott City, KS/ near Friend, KS, presumably from a bit earlier. https://twitter.com/reedtimmerTVN/status/734562855425445889 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 low-level rotation tracks (approximately 00z to 02z) near Big Spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 possible ongoing tornado near Garden City TX (note: not Garden City KS) -- * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN GLASSCOCK COUNTY IN WESTERN TEXAS...* AT 910 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER GARDEN CITY... MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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