Stormgeek Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Kelley Williamson with a large wedge live on streamhttp://www.stormviewlive.com/chasers/Kelley-Williamson.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 FD just reported a long lived tornado with this, moot point at this point, just passing it along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 PDS warning for memphis- confirmed tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Kelley Williamson in the TX PH. Large Wedge tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Big Springs Rotation when it was at its strongest. 205mph G2G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Well, I'll go ahead and say if this evening is any indication of what the rest of the week could be like. Well, it could be a long week. I believe there are four confirmed tornadoes on the ground currently, between texas and south dakota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...NORTHWESTERN CHILDRESS COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...NORTHEASTERN HALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...* UNTIL 730 PM CDT* AT 658 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADOWAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15MPH.THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TOROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRISWILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE ISLIKELY.* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...MEMPHIS AROUND 730 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Another thing of note, there are 3 tornado warnings in Texas, and all 3 are PDS warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 The big spring storm definitely looks cyclic. She's trying to get another hook going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0682 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0702 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX...OK PANHANDLE AND SWRN KS CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 190... VALID 230002Z - 230200Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 190 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 03Z FROM PORTIONS OF WRN TX INTO THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS. DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS THAT INITIATED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF DRYLINE PERSIST FROM NWRN TX NWD INTO SWRN KS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS...AND THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS BEFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND BEGINS. VWP DATA FROM AMARILLO HAVE SHOWN A NOTABLE INCREASE IN BOTH 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS SIZE /200-250 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY/ AND MID-LEVEL WINDS. THESE STORMS REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION TO INGEST AIR FROM A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE WARM-SECTOR CAPE RANGES FROM 2500-3500 J/KG. STORMS REMAIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE DESPITE NUMEROUS STORM MERGERS...AND THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL PERSIST NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND BY 03Z. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTHENING LLJ MIGHT FOSTER THE MAINTENANCE OF ONE OR MORE STORM CLUSTERS INTO THE LATE EVENING...BUT IF THIS OCCURS PRIMARY THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WIND. ..DIAL.. 05/23/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Big spring storm has cycled. Rotation ramping up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Deerfield has the best couplet atm. Looks pretty dang good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Strong rotation on tornado-warned supercell west of Garden City/ north of deerfield. Currently 113kt gtg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Storm east of Spearman, TX has gone nuts too, chasers reporting 6 tornadoes throughout its life so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 VWPs from around the area are pretty impressive in the lowest 10KFT, winds have backed significantly in some of them, no surprise these storms exploded. DDC VAD indicates 50kt SSE flow at 5KFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Storm east of Spearman, TX has gone nuts too, chasers reporting 6 tornadoes throughout its life so far. Yeah, that was the storm that Kelley Williamson had with the large wedge. Looks like rotation is beginning to pick up again on it, currently rain wrapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 TDS visible west of Forsan, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 TDS visible west of Forsan, TX. I dont see anything on CC, but there is a tornado again... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HOWARD AND NORTH CENTRAL GLASSCOCK COUNTIES... AT 728 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER LEES...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF BIG SPRING...AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND BASEBALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... LEES AROUND 745 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Impressive evening. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come later this week with numerous intense/slow-moving supercells in rather unpopulated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Yeah, that was the storm that Kelley Williamson had with the large wedge. Looks like rotation is beginning to pick up again on it, currently rain wrapped.Was it? I thought he was on the monster down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Was it? I thought he was on the monster down south. Sure was! And, nope, he's been up in that part of the Panhandle since this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Sure was! And, nope, he's been up in that part of the Panhandle since this afternoon.K, thanks. Hard to keep track without TVN's service, especially from my iPhone, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Big Spring tornado is a bit of an oddity 23Z RAP indicates only 20-25kt at H85 in that part of TX with ~30kt at H5. LLVL winds however are very nicely backed. Appears to have interacted with a boundary that probably helped local enhance SRH and vorticity... The 4000+J/KG SBCAPE certainly helps too. Appears to be another hook that developed behind what was the original one... Just acting like a typical supercell cluster, i.e, multiple hooks/tornadoes. 2nd hook has nice rotation attm, 1st hook not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Roger Hill scored a wedge, what else is new, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Big Spring tornado is a bit of an oddity 23Z RAP indicates only 20-25kt at H85 in that part of TX with ~30kt at H5. LLVL winds however are very nicely backed. Appears to have interacted with a boundary that probably helped local enhance SRH and vorticity... The 4000+J/KG SBCAPE certainly helps too. Mesoanalysis has 300-400 J/Kg effective SRH in that area, and 15-20 kt 0-1 km shear. Just goes to show that it's the shear that matters - not the actual wind magnitude at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 So what happened by Big Spring, there had to be an OFB or something similar involved. The 12z Midland sounding wasn't particularly impressive. Yeah, but this is 12 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Mesoanalysis has 300-400 J/Kg effective SRH in that area, and 15-20 kt 0-1 km shear. Just goes to show that it's the shear that matters - not the actual wind magnitude at 850. bingo.Speed shear, directional shear are a function of both direction and magnitude. Of course having 50 knots at 850 helps, but obviously therected are other ways to get it done. I don't think there was a boundary for augmentation anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 Storm well south of Perryton, TX with a strong couplet still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 So what happened by Big Spring, there had to be an OFB or something similar involved. The 12z Midland sounding wasn't particularly impressive. forecasting is about anticipating changes in the environment given observed and model data. WAA and sfc heating contributes to low level warming AND moistening, mid-level height falls cool the and erodes that cap, and you end up uncapped and highly unstable. Winds change as sfc cyclogenesis occurs and back, and/or increase causing hodograph enlargement. These are changes you need to anticipate, as models aren't always spot on. NAM iirc was not forecasting such imoressive low level wind profiles - we're likely dealing with features not well sampled/resolved with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted May 23, 2016 Share Posted May 23, 2016 forecasting is about anticipating changes in the environment given observed and model data. WAA and sfc heating contributes to low level warming AND moistening, mid-level height falls cool the and erodes that cap, and you end up uncapped and highly unstable. Winds change as sfc cyclogenesis occurs and back, and/or increase causing hodograph enlargement. These are changes you need to anticipate, as models aren't always spot on. NAM iirc was not forecasting such imoressive low level wind profiles - we're likely dealing with features not well sampled/resolved with this system. And this sounding is going on 13 hours old…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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