KSWx Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 4km NAM sounding on that supercell in SW KS at 00z tonight: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 FWIW (which really isnt much), 12Z 4KM NAM at hour 60 (monday at 7pm) is targeting the OKC metro area for having a pretty sweet supercell. Even shows a hook on simulated reflectivity! The environment in front of this thing is pretty volatile too if it were to occur, at least in the low-levels, minus the critical angle well over 90-degrees. (Picked a sounding from 23Z to try to avoid CC.) Remember this environment is probably overdone to an extent because this is the 4NAM, but still would likely have an impressive environment given what other models indicate.. Some weird stuff going on with the 4NAM above 350mb, not sure what it is really doing there, but it shows this same weird upper-level profile on several hours. Well, NAM 4km shows dewpoints of 75+ widespread and I don't think we will be seeing that lol. Upper 60s, low 70s more reasonable and applying that to what the 4km shows currently isn't nearly as impressive. 4km NAM sounding on that supercell in SW KS at 00z tonight: You shouldn't try to pull up soundings in and around a supercell/convection. This sounding is convectively contaminated and not representative of the actual ambient environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Well, NAM 4km shows dewpoints of 75+ widespread and I don't think we will be seeing that lol. Upper 60s, low 70s more reasonable and applying that to what the 4km shows currently isn't nearly as impressive. I wouldn't say it shows widespread 75+, except in TX, most of the 75+ it shows in OK is just pooling along the DL which maybe is not that far-fetched... Especially when you account for the impressive DPs currently widespread across S TX. This same sounding actually fits in that low 70s category... 4KNAM Shows maybe a couple/few degrees more than other models, thanks to that pooling. In addition, lowering the DP by just a couple degrees when it is already above/near 70 is not going to change things that much, in other words upper 60s/low 70s DPs will be good enough. Somewhere, not sure where really, on Monday will probably see a nice discrete sup in the afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Can we maybe place a moratorium on posting convectively contaminated NAM4km forecast soundings? I'm as guilty as anyone having fun posting interesting ones on twitter, but here we're trying to have a relatively informative discussion on the severe weather threats, and the eye-candy supercell soundings don't actually contribute anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 21, 2016 Author Share Posted May 21, 2016 Can we maybe place a moratorium on posting convectively contaminated NAM4km forecast soundings? I'm as guilty as anyone having fun posting interesting ones on twitter, but here we're trying to have a relatively informative discussion on the severe weather threats, and the eye-candy supercell soundings don't actually contribute anything. I have been guilty of that myself many a times as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Driving through the OK Panhandle I'm pleased to find that 4g has become common-place. So much improvement over even 3 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Driving through the OK Panhandle I'm pleased to find that 4g has become common-place. So much improvement over even 3 years ago. Definitely has gotten better. Actually Verizon's more annoying hole in service was SE of Norman ...as I drove down 177 toward Sulfur... What provider do you have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Driving through the OK Panhandle I'm pleased to find that 4g has become common-place. So much improvement over even 3 years ago. It is pretty remarkable how much coverage has improved in such a short amount of time. I have Verizon, and I rarely-- if ever-- am in a spot where I do not have LTE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 DDC VWP as of 19Z... This will likely improve some too. Seems like any semi/discrete supercells-- as long as everything does not just cluster/congeal-- would have decent tornado potential, especially closer to evening as LCLs will lower and storms will slowly move into a better environment. Storms likely will not have great tornado potential right off the bat due to initially high LCLs, as SPC meso page/sfc obs indicate relatively high LCLs and T/Td spreads. Deep-layer shear would seem to favor more so storm clusters than supercells, given that it is pretty weak right now, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0664NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0225 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016AREAS AFFECTED...WEST KS TO FAR EAST-CENTRAL NM/TX S PLAINSCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 211925Z - 212100ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SLOW-MOVING STORMS SHOULDDEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SOUTHWEST KS INTO EAST-CENTRAL NMDURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ALL STORMS SHOULD POSE A PRIMARY RISK FORLARGE HAIL...WITH A MORE INTENSE SUPERCELL OR TWO PROBABLE OVERSOUTHWEST KS WHERE THE TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE COMPARATIVELY GREATER.DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED CUMULUS IS INCREASING ALONG/BEHIND THEDRYLINE WHICH WAS DRAPED ALONG THE NORTHWEST KS/EAST-CENTRAL COBORDER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO FAR EASTERN NM. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THEDRYLINE HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60SSURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINING COMMON AT 19Z. CONTINUED CONVERGENCEALONG THE DRYLINE /FURTHER INTENSIFYING INTO EARLY EVENING/ SHOULDRESULT IN INITIAL STORMS FORMING BETWEEN 20-21Z. LOW-LEVEL WINDSWILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED AND STRENGTHEN GREATLY TOWARDS 00ZACROSS THE KS/OK PANHANDLE PORTION OF THIS REGION. THIS SHOULDRESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHTFAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINING A SUPERCELL OR TWO THAT MAY PRODUCE VERYLARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO. NEARBY PRESENCE OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGEAXIS SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND BE LARGELYCONFINED TO NEAR THE DRYLINE...GRAMS/HART.. 05/21/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 We're between Garden City and Scott City heading north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Red box out for E CO, SW NE and W KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Red box out for E CO, SW NE and W KS. 50/20 probs. Lets see what we get. THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO WESTERN KANSAS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Looks like possible CI south of GLD, near the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 We have initiation and a svr warned storm in the TX panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Sitting 20 N of Liberal, KS watching CU tower up every few minutes just to the west/on 83. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Never a good omen to have lackluster convective initiation when almost every CAM had robust development underway 1-2 hours ago. Still sitting 20 N of Liberal waiting to see what happens down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Pretty nasty supercell up in Montana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Impressive cell up in MT. Has 70 kts of bulk shear and 300 m2s2 of SRH to work with as well. Decent 0-1 km shear at 25 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Was watching/listening to Kelley Williamson's stream on Severe Studios, and saw about 3 DOWs from NSSL/CSWR in Tribune, KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 If any of these storms can ever get well established and move along the boundary evident on GLD they could really explode, the VWP at GLD is pretty incredible in the lowest 10KFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 21, 2016 Author Share Posted May 21, 2016 First warning just got issued south of Goodland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Rain wrapped TVS on the storm north of Leoti. EDIT: And... its gone. Was there for two updates. Nothing showed up on CC, so not sure if there was an actual tornado, but the TVS was pretty obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 21, 2016 Author Share Posted May 21, 2016 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 639 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN WICHITA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 715 PM CDT * AT 638 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEOTI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN WICHITA COUNTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Kinda grainy but Brandon Sullivan feed had a funnel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Pretty intense inflow into the storm north of Leoti, starting to act/ look more supercellular, main circulation is still pretty well rain wrapped. Pretty broad, but strong rotation. Looks like ~100kts gtg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 22, 2016 Author Share Posted May 22, 2016 Multiple reports, and pictures, of tornado on the ground north of Leoti, Kansas. 7:11 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 713 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 KSC203-220045- /O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-160522T0045Z/ WICHITA KS- 713 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL WICHITA COUNTY... AT 712 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF LEOTI...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND THREE INCH HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL WICHITA COUNTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Rotation also developing in western Logan County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 22, 2016 Share Posted May 22, 2016 Latest velocity scans indicate there might be a second tornado warning coming for this - second area or rotation NNW of current TOR warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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