Active Severe Weather Pattern Beginning Next Week

[Stebo]

Warned now

 

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1247 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN BASTROP COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 115 AM CDT
    
* AT 1247 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SMITHVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

[DoctorMu]

That Austin cell means business.  Don't like the vector, possibly through Giddings and then College Station.

 

Dark and rain-wrapped.  Beware.  iPhone Alerts on.

[pbrussell]

My chase day in kansas city after work consisted of rain, shelf clouds, rain, some wind, rain, a little bit of hail, rain, and coming home to a flooded basement. Also, rain.

[Buckeye05]

North of Abilene from 5/25/16 Indy Rd and 2700 Ave. This one was not included on the DAT or mentioned in the official survey text for some reason, and I wonder if TOP possibly missed it? 

[JasonOH]

North of Abilene from 5/25/16 Indy Rd and 2700 Ave. This one was not included on the DAT or mentioned in the official survey text for some reason, and I wonder if TOP possibly missed it?

Maybe they haven't assigned a rating yet. I can't tell if those are anchor bolts in the wood or not.

[Buckeye05]

Maybe they haven't assigned a rating yet. I can't tell if those are anchor bolts in the wood or not.

If you zoom in, its clear that they are.

[JasonOH]

If you zoom in, its clear that they are.

Then they may be waiting on structural engineers to evaluate it. There's no way it was forgotten since there was media all over the house.

[Buckeye05]

Then they may be waiting on structural engineers to evaluate it. There's no way it was forgotten since there was media all over the house.

I don't know, I'd like to think that was the case but NWS Topeka's page on this event seems finalized. No more mention of "preliminary" ratings.

[blackjack123]

I don't know, I'd like to think that was the case but NWS Topeka's page on this event seems finalized. No more mention of "preliminary" ratings.

They will go as way far out of their way to avoid giving an EF5 rating.

[Chinook]

Interesting sounding from DDC last night. That SRH seems unusually high. Supercell parameter is very high. You can even see the goofy hodograph above 5km. CAPE is actuallly above 3492 J/kg, but without temp information in the top-most layers of this graph, it is impossible to know how much above 3492 J/kg

 

[jojo762]

They will go as way far out of their way to avoid giving an EF5 rating.

Everybody scrutinizes the hell out of an EF-5 rating, that's why. Even the Moore ('13) and Joplin ratings got criticized.

[JasonOH]

Everybody scrutinizes the hell out of an EF-5 rating, that's why. Even the Moore ('13) and Joplin ratings got criticized.

If there is consideration at all with it, they are going to be tight lipped about it. There may be additional analysis with that house, but who knows. If that's the case, that may be the reason the point isn't in. If EF5 is considered but not actually chosen, they probably won't even mention it.

Edit: I highly doubt it will be upgraded. That's a small home, so even if the anchor bolts were properly spaced it would not take as high of winds as a large 2 story house.

[Buckeye05]

I wonder if it's possible that they intentionally kept this house off survey, knowing it would be a source of controversy. I still think it's more likely that they missed it, but hey you never know.

[hlcater]

If there is consideration at all with it, they are going to be tight lipped about it. There may be additional analysis with that house, but who knows. If that's the case, that may be the reason the point isn't in. If EF5 is considered but not actually chosen, they probably won't even mention it.

Edit: I highly doubt it will be upgraded. That's a small home, so even if the anchor bolts were properly spaced it would not take as high of winds as a large 2 story house.

I don't know about that, didn't houses like this out in the open get an EF5 rating in the el reno-piedmont tornado? But I could see them avoiding EF5 since EF5 always makes a huge stir and controversy.

[JasonOH]

I don't know about that, didn't houses like this out in the open get an EF5 rating in the el reno-piedmont tornado? But I could see them avoiding EF5 since EF5 always makes a huge stir and controversy.

I'm pretty sure the EF5 was for the oil equipment just north of I40, but you may be right.

[Buckeye05]

I'm pretty sure the EF5 was for the oil equipment just north of I40, but you may be right.

The houses swept away by that one weren't anchored well. You are correct in that the EF5 rating for that one was mainly based on extreme damage at large oil rig.

I don't know about that, didn't houses like this out in the open get an EF5 rating in the el reno-piedmont tornado? But I could see them avoiding EF5 since EF5 always makes a huge stir and controversy.

I'd say Parkersburg would be a better comparison. There was EF5 damage to homes similar to this at the golf course subdivision east of town.

[Buckeye05]

Solved via Tim Marshall. Note the lack of nails sticking out of the sill plates. Normally, we would see toe nails or at least straight nails sticking out, but here we see neither. This implies that the subflooring likely slid away rather easily, taking the house with it. Never considered this potential caveat with basement foundation homes, but it is something to consider from now on.

[Chinook]

Some tornadoes have occurred near Tribune KS and Towner CO with cold-core convection. I believe these are non-supercell tornadoes that happened with strong surface convergence and cold temps at 500mb.

[natecast]

Storms that have fired in the supercell genesis magic area NE of Lawton strengthening pretty rapidly.

[aurora]

Storms that have fired in the supercell genesis magic area NE of Lawton strengthening pretty rapidly.

 

Got some quarter-sized hail, perhaps a bit larger, at I-35 and Main Street in Moore with a storm that pulsed to severe levels just about right over my head and then dissipated no more than 30 minutes later. So with that in mind, not a bad storm intercept. Extremely professional videos included in the Tweet below:

 

https://twitter.com/TheSchlenZone/status/736350239141953536

[ZackH]

They will go as way far out of their way to avoid giving an EF5 rating.

 

They consulted with one of the leading experts in the field... the rating was sound. There is no conspiracy of offices trying to avoid assigning EF5's... they will assign what the damage shows. And any tornado that close to an EF5 will always have other experts consulted. Its not about assigning EF5's, its about assigning the correct damage rating.

[JasonOH]

They consulted with one of the leading experts in the field... the rating was sound. There is no conspiracy of offices trying to avoid assigning EF5's... they will assign what the damage shows. And any tornado that close to an EF5 will always have other experts consulted. Its not about assigning EF5's, its about assigning the correct damage rating.

This. Tim Marshall, THE expert in tornado damage concluded the floor likely slid easily. That makes complete sense and makes it quite obvious why it was not a higher end EF4 or EF5. The whole thing is about getting it right. With Joplin the rating came from manhole covers and parking blocks, that's using science to get it right. Vilonia had other evidence around the houses swept away that showed that it was not EF5. There's a lot more than just swept away houses to consider.

Edit: Not Tim this time. Thanks!

[ZackH]

This. Tim Marshall, THE expert in tornado damage concluded the floor likely slid easily. That makes complete sense and makes it quite obvious why it was not a higher end EF4 or EF5. The whole thing is about getting it right. With Joplin the rating came from manhole covers and parking blocks, that's using science to get it right. Vilonia had other evidence around the houses swept away that showed that it was not EF5. There's a lot more than just swept away houses to consider.

 

While Tim's opinion is also of the highest. I was referring to another expert they consulted... but as it was through internal communication... I did not want to give them name.

[JasonOH]

While Tim's opinion is also of the highest. I was referring to another expert they consulted... but as it was through internal communication... I did not want to give them name.

Gotcha. I heard Tim posted something about it so I assumed it was him.

[ZackH]

Gotcha. I heard Tim posted something about it so I assumed it was him.

 

Its no problem... I think Tim did his own survey/study and that should be enough to put it to rest anyway.

[nrgjeff]

We saw the Shootout at Dodge City as I am calling it. Picture is twins, a narrow pizza slice and hose/tube in the background. Also booked the Woodward OK tornado the day prior. Saw great friends in Wichita. Daily details:

 

 

Saturday traveled with @djburnette from Memphis to OKC. Happy for Ian, Q and the rest who saw the Leoti Kansas tornado.

 

Sunday we whiffed a bit. Followed Clarendon TX HP but did not see the confirmed tornado. Wish we'd gone north Panhandle. 14Z HRRR nailed the Perryton TX supercell on a subtle boundary up there.

 

Monday booked the Woodward OK tornadoes, thankfully just north of town. First sups went down near Clarendon again but we did not bite. Took everything we had to wait in Woodward. Got sidetracked north near Coldwater KS but made it back in time for 1-2 of the Woodward tornadoes. Sunset was as gorgeous as the twisters.

 

Tuesday saw the entire Dodge City shootout. Thank God it wobbled northwest of town on a supercell cycle before wedging. Others got closer pix, but I share a tornadoes pictures from an angle I have not seem much. We do not like to get close in case mass escape is required. Used to get so much closer, but I do not feel safe at the back of the line. Sunset and rainbow was an incredible end to the day.

 

Wednesday was supposed to be the non-chaser friends in Wichita day. Last minute went for the southern Kansas outflow. Missed Bennington II up on the triple point. That is OK because we saw great friends for lunch and dinner. Also met Andyhb in Hesston KS. Plus, well, Dodge City.

 

Thursday was the Big Debacle. I doubt VBV way upstairs was the problem. Texas MCC prevented moisture recovery in wake of first wave. LLJ was cranking but firing blanks without the moisture tap.

 

Friday returned to MEM. Drank, celebrated and ate good BBQ. Congrats to all who Made Storm Chasing Great Again!

[Ian]

Glad you had a good time Jeff! Wish we could have met up. Trip winding down here as well. Was considering biting the bullet and buying a new ticket home the other day. Probably should have hah. Learned next time I fly out not to buy a round trip fare.. Any saving is minimal in the end esp given I switched my outbound.

Interesting trip. We botched a day or two .. Nebraska was arguably bad luck but the type of day SPC chasing would have paid off. Bipolar patten. Either amazing or rather meh. Wouldn't trade DDC and Bennington 2.0 for anything though. DDC will be a tough one to ever beat. Glad I came out now rather than first week of June haha. Could see another round, maybe even better, later month tho.. But waiting that long is tricky from a chasecationer POV.

[andyhb]

Nice to meet you Jeff (and Dorian), too bad that southern storm fizzled out on 5/25. That probably would've dropped a big tornado like the northern storm had it rooted in the boundary layer.

 

And yeah seems like there's going to be elevated potential for a lot of activity starting in the second/third week of June once this western ridge breaks down and the North Pacific jet extension tries to reach the West Coast. Nino climo favours active Junes and unseasonably strong flow fields aloft may result if this comes together.