Santa Clause Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 tornado reported at Bryan/College Station Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 I am starting to get concered that this garbage will mitigate the threat later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0741 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 261813Z - 262015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY INCREASED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND A SEVERE THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE INCREASING SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST HOUR...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. INSTABILITY IS VERY STRONG IN THE REGION...WITH MLCAPE EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG SUGGESTIVE OF A HAIL AND DOWNBURST WIND THREAT WITH ANY SUSTAINED ACTIVITY. THE TORNADO THREAT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS TIME GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...BUT SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT...WHERE BACKED SURFACE WINDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED VORTICITY INGEST OF ANY ISOLATED UPDRAFTS IN THIS AREA. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. GENERALLY...ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DRYLINE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SOME MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LESSENED EFFECTIVE INSTABILITY IN THAT AREA...WITH GENERALLY HIGHER-BASED CONVECTION EXPECTED THAT WILL CONTAIN A HAIL/WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Wow.Wow indeed, that's literally were I work.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 26, 2016 Author Share Posted May 26, 2016 This supercell in Roger Mills and Ellis County OK already showing signs of rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Of course there would be a tornado within 15 minutes of where I live when I leave for a chase. Would be the ultimate irony if I see nothing today. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The tornado was waiting for you to leave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0740 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL OK...CNTRL AND ERN KANSAS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 261808Z - 262015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...LONGER TERM SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE A WATCH. DISCUSSION...IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MID-LEVEL INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR INCREASINGLY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE I-35/135 CORRIDOR OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS OCCURRING IN THE PRESENCE OF A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER... BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SIZABLE CAPE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...EAST OF THE DRYLINE ...AND SOUTHWEST OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN KANSAS...IS RATHER MODEST...PARTICULARLY IN LOW-LEVEL. SOME CONCERN EXISTS THAT AFTER ONGOING...INITIAL INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL COULD BECOME MITIGATED AS INCREASING OUTFLOW IMPACTS THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS COULD STILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...WITH A RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. OTHERWISE...SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEAR THE PRIMARY THREAT INTO THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Here's the railroad track that was shifted by the tornado yesterday, not ripped up and twisted. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=971746146279195&set=a.578163555637458.1073741828.100003314564319&type=3&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 The railroad devastation. You can see just how bent the rail is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Here's the railroad track that was shifted by the tornado yesterday, not ripped up and twisted. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=971746146279195&set=a.578163555637458.1073741828.100003314564319&type=3&theater Impressive, but boy, quite a bit of hyperbole in initial reports, eh? Weren't people initially saying that the tracks were actually ripped out of the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildwestpb Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 80/60 Tornado watch just issued - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0214.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Impressive, but boy, quite a bit of hyperbole in initial reports, eh? Weren't people initially saying that the tracks were actually ripped out of the ground?There were multiple areas between Abilene and Chapman reported by both FD and spotters on the Skywarn feed, so I'm almost positive that's not the only area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 26, 2016 Author Share Posted May 26, 2016 Here we go... 80/60 tornado 70/10 wind >95/60 hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 80/60 Tornado watch just issued - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0214.htmlHuge watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Just in time, first tornado warning up already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EquusStorm Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Despite the extreme hyperbole from yesterday, that is still the most impressive wind damage to continuously welded rail I have ever seen. Could be the most impressive ever. I just wonder if several things hit the rail structure to start the damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 First warning in KS, heading NE at Greensburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 26, 2016 Author Share Posted May 26, 2016 Strong radar-indicated tornado west of Bedias, Texas currently. Storm moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Rotation showing up south of Laverne, OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Storm mode is awfully messy already, this could end the event before it really even started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Topeka under a tornado warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Storm mode is awfully messy already, this could end the event before it really even started. Still plenty of daylight left, and tons of energy. It'll deplete the atmosphere some but I bet we still get a pretty good show, especially 22z-00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Storm mode is awfully messy already, this could end the event before it really even started. Definitely looks that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Storm mode is awfully messy already, this could end the event before it really even started. Wait for the LLJ before even considering making this kind of call. That is one of the most basic rules of plains setups. And honestly, the main show may end up being those Oklahoma cells as they push northward later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 215 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 155 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST KANSAS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA * EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Can we please stop calling bust (or any definite outcome for that matter) at friggin 2 PM? Come on people. This may sound biased since I'm chasing, but seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Can we please stop calling bust at friggin 2 PM? Come on people. This may sound biased since I'm chasing, but seriously. Not biased at all; typically the ppl calling for a bust are those looking for justification for sitting out on a chase. You guys are severely underestimating what this setup is likely to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 70/40 TOR Probs... >95/70 HAIL probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Just realized the messy cluster isnt really even in the main moderate risk area, they are both off to the east, we'll have to see what materializes later like others said regarding my first post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Despite the extreme hyperbole from yesterday, that is still the most impressive wind damage to continuously welded rail I have ever seen. Could be the most impressive ever. I just wonder if several things hit the rail structure to start the damage. So it looks to me the entire rail bed was physically shoved sideways as a unit by wind? In some ways that is even more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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