capbreak Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Will be heading west from KC after work today. Just don't know where. Hopefully the next model runs help shore up my decision. And hopefully I'm not too late. Should I mention that I may be kicking myself a bit for not getting out yesterday? Yay, I'm kicking myself. We left St. John, stared at the cell, didn't like how it looked, decided to take a down day and went and got dinner. We looked at vis sat at the one time the massive OFB was obscured and didn't bother checking a longer loop. We also saw the overshooting top and said "that's too large to be an overshooting top, it must be falling apart and spreading out". Good lessons to be learned from yesterday, and I don't think the SPC blew it, as it didn't really become an evident play until 20Z or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 More of a trek than the north play though. Agh. Decisions. go hang out in salina and wait to see whats up. makes getting south easy if you have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Headed to ICT maybe st John and evaluating there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildwestpb Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 OUN is deviating from the SPC current forecast, maybe it's what SPC will put out at their 1730z outlook. - https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/735852659194748928 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 I know this isn't the only ingredient to a severe weather forecast, but SBCAPE on SPC mesoanalysis is up to 6,000 in portions of western Oklahoma....at 10:30AM. Extraordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 OUN is deviating from the SPC current forecast, maybe it's what SPC will put out at their 1730z outlook. - https://twitter.com/NWSNorman/status/735852659194748928 I noticed that... That's what I'm thinking as well, probably a MDT in KS I'd imagine as well...(?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Agreed. Think an upgrade ma happen. The parameters are looking ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 NWS Norman @NWSNorman 11m11 minutes ago @DavidCWatson1 This is the outlook for our forecast area, coordinated with SPC, They may alter their new day1 at the 1630Z update. NWS Norman @NWSNorman 10m10 minutes ago @DavidCWatson1 This is the outlook for the Norman WFO area, NOT the SPC outlook. They can differ slightly on a local scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 I know this isn't the only ingredient to a severe weather forecast, but SBCAPE on SPC mesoanalysis is up to 6,000 in portions of western Oklahoma....at 10:30AM. Extraordinary. I'd recommend using MLCAPE - more representative of the parcels being lifted. Still >4000 right now, which is huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Today could be fairly significant with a clean initiation. Wishing luck to our chasers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 26, 2016 Author Share Posted May 26, 2016 Approaching 4,500 J/kg in Southern Kansas as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 I'd recommend using MLCAPE - more representative of the parcels being lifted. Still >4000 right now, which is huge Good to know. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Good to know. Thanks! Wow, ridiculous numbers. OT but hope Durant and the boys end series tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 I'd recommend using MLCAPE - more representative of the parcels being lifted. Still >4000 right now, which is huge pretty ridiculous to see that at 11 AM. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 26, 2016 Author Share Posted May 26, 2016 Looking like once again it will be the mesoscale features that will determine the severity of today's weather across Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Newest HRRR Run sounding. At my house.Literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Wow, ridiculous numbers. OT but hope Durant and the boys end series tonight! Same here! We'll see if I can watch the game in my living room or will be streaming from the shelter, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 2016-05-26 10_47_50-pivotalweather - HRRR - Significant Tornado Parameter (SigTor) for Fri 2016-05-2.jpg Newest HRRR Run sounding. At my house.Literally. That's convectively contaminated. It is not a representation of what the environment will actually be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 That's convectively contaminated. It is not a representation of what the environment will actually be. Good to know. Figured something looked a little off, as there were no readings like that earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Moderate risk coming central kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Moderate risk coming central kansas. Did you pay a visit to the SPC or Norman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 On a side note, there was an 87mph gust recorded at the Denison, IA airport overnight. Caused some trains to derail. http://www.kcci.com/weather/overnight-storms-knock-over-rail-cars-topple-trees/39736862 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 15% hatched TOR in the MDT update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Pretty big 15% tor added to this outlook. Also a very large hatched area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF KS... ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHERN NEB...ACROSS KS...INTO WESTERN OK AND WEST TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL OTHERWISE BE POSSIBLE OVER A BROAD AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ...NEB/KS... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING LOW NEAR DDC...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. A VERY MOIST AND EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW...WHERE NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG. GIVEN THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THERE IS A CHANCE OF AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OVER PARTS OF KS AND SOUTHERN NEB. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST KS...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS MAY BE MESSY WITH MIXED MODES. HOWEVER...THE UNUSUALLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING AND WIND FIELDS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...SUGGESTS THE RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THERE IS SOME RISK OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL KS AS STORMS EMANATING FROM CO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK. ...WESTERN OK/WEST TX... MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME HANDLING THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EARLY CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF TX/OK. THIS IS LEADING TO RAPID BOUNDARY-LAYER DRYING/STABILIZATION IN SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. WHILE THIS MAY BE PARTIALLY CORRECT...IT IS LIKELY OVERDONE. IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SCATTERED SUPERCELL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST OVER NORTHWEST OK WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF WIND FIELDS AND FORCING WILL OVERLAP. ..HART/COOK.. 05/26/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Man, this seems like a late pull of the trigger. Better late than never I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Man, this seems like a late pull of the trigger. Better late than never I guess.The outlook was out at 11:30am local time, not late at all, plenty of time to prepare. Nothing wrong with what they did, nailing down the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Do we need a new thread for today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Do we need a new thread for today?Would be kind of pointless.This is a good catch-all thread for this whole active period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.