bjc3395 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 00z NAM paints a dangerous picture across the current ENH risk area--and especially in KS-- tomorrow by as early as 18Z. Widespread 0-1KM SRH of 200-300m2/s2 by 00z, and even better 0-3KM SRH. Here is a sounding from 00Z tomorrow in S KS. yup - I expect that moderate to extend southward for intensity but would not be surprised at only an enhanced given spatial coverage expected on lower end. Love dry lines for that very reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Today was awesome. Drove <60 miles round trip and witnessed the beast. Tomorrow should be great too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 I've been planning on chasing tomorrow for a few days now, but considering my starting point, range, and need to return for commitments the next day, I'm going to have to play way far south down the dryline, likely remaining in Texas or perhaps crossing into far south Oklahoma. With that being said, much of the guidance is really frustrating with at least 50% of what I've been looking at completely decimating my possible target areas with overnight and morning convection. If things don't look better by tomorrow morning, I might just scrap my plans completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 KS might be about to put on a grand finale tomorrow. Aside from VBV up high (which is certainly not as problematic as down low below 500 mb), the mid/low levels on both the NAM and GFS generally have classic tornadic supercellular hodograph structure and obviously high CAPE again. Storm motions will be faster tomorrow with the stronger wind fields in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Well Ian needed some of my mojo yesterday so I guess we're even lol.Pretty sure I saw like a thousand tornadoes yesterday. It happens... You will miss cool stuff while chasing, guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Pretty sure I saw like a thousand tornadoes yesterday. It happens... You will miss cool stuff while chasing, guaranteed. I meant after Sun/Mon heh. I think this one blows those cleanly out of the water obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Yeah tomorrow is starting to have that feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 I meant after Sun/Mon heh. I think this one blows those cleanly out of the water obviously. Yeah true. Sunday was bad luck as much as anything. Monday was poor decision making. But both happen plenty. I know it sucks though I always let it get to me even though I shouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 KS might be about to put on a grand finale tomorrow. Aside from VBV up high (which is certainly not as problematic as down low below 500 mb), the mid/low levels on both the NAM and GFS generally have classic tornadic supercellular hodograph structure and obviously high CAPE again. Storm motions will be faster tomorrow with the stronger wind fields in place. How is Friday looking for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Yeah tomorrow is starting to have that feel. most guidance has been pretty incessant about KS being big tomorrow... And it looks better now than it did even a few days ago. Not perfect by any means, but still more than good enough (considering the impressive low-levels) for multiple tornadoes, some likely being strong and long-tracked. A little concerned by the storm motions shown by the NAM, but that will only matter if there are tons of storms, and if storms decide not to be right movers. Given th amount of low-level turning, I'd expect quite a few deviant right movers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Tomorrow may get very active early.The veer-back or veer-back-veer wind profiles may be something holding this back from having several classic supercells in the warm sector. Despite this issue, I'd say that there will probably be several tornadoes, in perhaps messy storm modes or clusters. The dew points will be above 70 in several spots. Northern Kansas will see 0-6km shear up around 50 kt. Storm relative helicity could be pretty high wherever the outflow boundary is/ and wherever the winds are more easterly. The storms definitely won't be isolated by hundreds of miles, like today. There's a chance that some storms pop up in Oklahoma, but they will still suffer (a little) from veer-back-veer and from lack of higher SRH. The WRF-NSSL lays out a pretty big stable-air outflow boundary in northeast Kansas early, then has discrete cells, then a cluster by 21z. edit: if you checked some of the sharppy-based forecast soundings for Kansas, from the earlier (12z or 18z) runs of the 4km NAM, there were some spots of 8000 J/kg. edit: looks like Vance radar is broken right now, and will be for an unknown amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 GFS is also electric for tomorrow across a similar area... NOTE: Something to keep in mind about a few of the Hi-Res CAMS showing quick upscale growth tomorrow... They did that every day this week and failed for the most part (until later in the evening, after the tornado threat had begun subsiding anyways.) CAMs have not done too great recently with handling convection... Especially when it comes to them wanting to accelerate cold pool development-- its not going to happen until later. Another thing to note is that far S KS/N OK and W OK would still definitely be in play as well. Models are showing some weird convective-contamination of DPs and instability across SW/W OK from some convection in TX though, and i'm not quite sure what to make of it since most of them don't advertise convection significant enough, and close enough to mess up moisture that much... Nonetheless, if things remain discrete across KS, it will be a long day, and likely a tornado outbreak-- as long as LLVL/MLVL wind fields are of the magnitude/orientation as currently advertised... Things will almost certainly be discrete in OK, but coverage concerns as well as the aforementioned potential contamination throw a wrench in there, in addition to the possibility of slightly less impressive SRH... BUT latest NAM did show pretty impressive SRH along most of the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Large non-hatched 10% TOR across only N KS and S NEB... with only 5% tor probs extending to the KS/OK border... Only 2% below that. Sounds like they are only interested in waiting for details to become clearer. Large 30% hatched hail area across KS/NEB, and another one in W/C TX. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ..THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NEB/KS VICINITY ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS COVERING A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF THE MID AND LOWER MO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SSWWD TO THE RIO GRANDE... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS VICINITY...AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. ..SYNOPSIS STEADY EWD PROGRESSION OF WRN U.S. TROUGH IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM CROSSING THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAY AND NOSING INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES WITH TIME. AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...A LEE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN INTO WRN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO SRN NEB. THIS LOW AND WARM FRONT...A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS OK/TX...AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY FOCUS SEVERAL AREAS OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ..CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS VICINITY A VERY COMPLEX/UNCERTAIN SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING/LOCATION AND SPECIFICS OF EVOLUTION OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BECOME WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS REGION. ONGOING STORMS ATTM -- AND ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING -- WILL BE THE PRIMARY COMPLICATING FACTOR...WITH SWATHS OF THE WARM SECTOR BECOMING CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN HERETOFORE UNCERTAIN LOCATIONS. WITH THAT SAID...THE BROADER PICTURE -- WHICH INCLUDES A LARGE WRN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED/ENHANCED SWLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADING EWD TOWARD THE PLAINS ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR BENEATH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE -- IS SUGGESTIVE OF AT LEAST LOCALLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALONG WITH RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ATTM...TWO MAIN CORRIDORS OF SEVERE RISK INCLUDE: 1. SRN NEB AND MUCH OF KS -- AND POSSIBLY INTO NERN CO -- INVOF THE FORECAST-TO-BE-DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT...AND POTENTIALLY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER CENTRAL AND ERN KS 2. PARTS OF W CENTRAL TX INCLUDING THE CONCHO VALLEY AND BIG COUNTRY REGIONS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AS MENTIONED ABOVE...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT /AWAY FROM AREAS WHICH EXPERIENCE PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/ ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS STORMS...AND 45-55 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING EWD ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. AGAIN THOUGH...NARROWING DOWN TIMING AND SPECIFIC LOCALES OF GREATEST RISK REMAIN DIFFICULT ATTM...WITH AN ARRAY OF THE LATEST PARAMETERIZED AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS EXHIBIT DIVERSE/DISPARATE SOLUTIONS REGARDING CONVECTIVE TIMING/INITIATION/PROGRESSION. THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES...DETAILS PRECLUDE ANY FURTHER SPECIFICATION ATTM. ..UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES VICINITY ISOLATED STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE AT LEAST PARTS OF THIS REGION -- LIKE AREAS FARTHER S -- WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE EARLY PERIOD CONVECTION...SOME DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH MODERATE /40 TO 45 KT/ MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL SUPPORT RISK HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. ..GOSS/MOSIER.. 05/26/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Not a hatched 10% lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Not a hatched 10% lol An odd outlook to me, especially with where the 10% area is exact (including a large part of Nebraska)... Guess they're just waiting for more details to come into focus... Not like it matters I guess. Today we got a long-track violent tornado in the 2% risk. lol SPC has been weird this year... Especially since 4/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 NOTE: Something to keep in mind about a few of the Hi-Res CAMS showing quick upscale growth tomorrow... They did that every day this week and failed for the most part (until later in the evening, after the tornado threat had begun subsiding anyways.) CAMs have not done too great recently with handling convection... Especially when it comes to them wanting to accelerate cold pool development-- its not going to happen until later. Maybe when the convection-allowing models see 6000 J/kg of CAPE they all say, "Convection!!!!!! Yay!!!!!!!!!!!!" and forecast thunderstorms everywhere. Edit: there is a tornado warning at this moment in Iraan TX. People may be going to their shelters at 1:29AM CDT or 12:29 AM MDT (can't remember if that section is on Mountain time.) Pretty good rotation and 1" to 3" hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Anyone have a satellite loop of the Kansas supercell today? Thanks in advance. Edit: Totally forgot College of DuPage has a satellite feature, here's the loop in case anyone else wanted a look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Why is so much of Nebraska under 10% tornado probabilities? That has almost no support from models/trends/etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 What I gathered from the 06Z Day 1 outlook... We have no idea what will happen today. This outlook is a place-holder until later today when we issue our real severe weather outlook. Check back later. (I don't blame them - its a tough forecast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Why is so much of Nebraska under 10% tornado probabilities? That has almost no support from models/trends/etc. similar question to how many licks does it take to get to the center of a tootsie pop... The world may never know. On a serious note, that is a great question. Right when I saw that in the outlook I said to myself "what?" Also with only a 2% TOR in every portion of OK... Anyways, as has been the case recently... The HRRR has no earthly sense of what it is doing, or what is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 An odd outlook to me, especially with where the 10% area is exact (including a large part of Nebraska)... Guess they're just waiting for more details to come into focus... Not like it matters I guess. Today we got a long-track violent tornado in the 2% risk. lol SPC has been weird this year... Especially since 4/26. Between SPC and NHC there to me, anecdotally, is a distinct counter (sometimes over) reaction to a "blown high" forecast (in the latter case, a TC they forecast to, say, Cat 3 that is blown apart by shear after reaching low Cat 1) - for the next 3-4 TCs they'll under-forecast intensity, or in the case of SPC, for the next 3-4 possible outbreaks they will paint risk areas below what they usually are based on the same model output. Probably could be investigated formally through statistics. On the flip side there tend to be years where possible severe outbreaks or TC intensity consistently under or over performs modeling in mysterious ways, and their argument might be they are trying to capture that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Well for those of you chasing today... You'll love the obs plot/vis-sat image as of 1230Z for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Great clearing on the KS/OK border. Has anyone seen photos of the railroad tracks? I hope someone got photos because they will be rebuilding them asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Well for those of you chasing today... You'll love the obs plot/vis-sat image as of 1230Z for the most part. One thing I noticed in that visible imagery was some agitated CU in the OK & TX Phdls. I wonder if that is a really subtle piece of vorticity making it out already. BTW, is anyone else buying the early runs of the HRRR model? Below is the image from the 11z HRRR valid at 18z, it is showing convection breaking out between 18 & 19z across W OK & S KS. The trends so far this week has been for the HRRR to break out convection earlier than it actually happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Still an ENH risk. No clue how there is not enough forecast confidence in at least widespread large hail.... Still too early I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Will be heading west from KC after work today. Just don't know where. Hopefully the next model runs help shore up my decision. And hopefully I'm not too late. Should I mention that I may be kicking myself a bit for not getting out yesterday? Yay, I'm kicking myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 I'd do SC KS... Despite the SPC TOR probs being meh down there, it holds the highest potential in my mind... Relatively isolated convection (possibly), a strong 50-60kt SLY LLJ by 00Z--likely with backed SFC winds, steep mid-level LSRs and impressive BL moisture creating ample instability, also don't think VBV will be too great in this area. ICT could be under the gun later, potentially. 12Z NAM does a good job of showing this. RAOBs from AMA/DDC/OUN indicated an impressive EML--especially at DDC. This however will not be the case later in the day as the S/W works it's magic. DDC also already had 50kt near westerly flow at H5, and ~90kt flow at H25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 26, 2016 Author Share Posted May 26, 2016 This morning's Observed Sounding from Lamont, Oklahoma. It is looking ripe once again for severe thunderstorms today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 I'd do SC KS... Despite the SPC TOR probs being meh down there, it holds the highest potential in my mind... Relatively isolated convection (possibly), a strong 50-60kt SLY LLJ by 00Z--likely with backed SFC winds, steep mid-level LSRs and impressive BL moisture creating ample instability, also don't think VBV will be too great in this area. ICT could be under the gun later, potentially. 12Z NAM does a good job of showing this. RAOBs from AMA/DDC/OUN indicated an impressive EML--especially at DDC. This however will not be the case later in the day as the S/W works it's magic. DDC also already had 50kt near westerly flow at H5, and ~90kt flow at H25. More of a trek than the north play though. Agh. Decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 More of a trek than the north play though. Agh. Decisions. I'd still wager the northern play will have some tornadoes, but they'll probably be rain-wrapped and shorter lasting. Don't put too much stock on TOR maps. After all yesterday occurred in a 2% area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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