capbreak Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Was on the Dodge City cell along with a kazillion other people. Still amazing to witness - top 5 chase day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 This video has a good overview of the tornado fest near Dodge City: So many tornadoes... *drools* What is with this May and violent stovepipe tornadoes? Making up lost ground as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 I will say this with respect to tomorrow and especially Thursday, the system associated with that trough is very strong looking ogg the California coast. At this point I wouldn't be shocked if Thursday ends up being a MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Meh discussion relative to what it looks like Thursday actually could be, in my opinion... Given all the dynamics in play... steep lapse rates, very moist BL, impressive LLJ as soon as 21Z and especially by 00z, impressive SFC-cyclone over SW KS resulting in backed SFC winds along the dryline, and a strong mid-level jet punching into the warm sector at a favorable time resulting in ample ascent for CI, see no reason not to expect widespread severe. Does seem like biggest concern is over VBV, it will be hard to figure out how much of an impact it will have on storm-mode/updrafts until the day of, given that it is mainly above 500mb, I am not sure... But storm motions on the NAM might be just good enough to stat aware from tons of storm interactions. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NEB AND KS SWD INTO WRN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CNTRL-SRN PLAINS INTO IA/MO... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AND EWD INTO THE SWRN GREAT LAKES... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY. OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ..SYNOPSIS A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. A LEAD DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS TX DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE ARKLATEX WITH THE PRIMARY BELT OF STRONGER FLOW H5 FLOW REMAINING NEAR THE DRYLINE WWD INTO W TX AND ERN NM DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. A SURFACE LOW INVOF SWRN KS WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN ATTENDANT NORTH-SOUTH DRYLINE. A FRONT WILL EXTEND NNEWD FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ..CNTRL KS/OK/TX SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND RICH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD INTO THE SRN-CNTRL PLAINS. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS S-CNTRL INTO ERN PARTS OF TX DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS WITH MODULATIONS OF THE WIND PROFILE AS FAR N AS OK DURING THE DAY. A DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SEEMINGLY EXPAND EARLY ACROSS CNTRL-ERN TX AMIDST A BUOYANT AIRMASS WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE PRIMARILY OF AN ISOLD HAIL/WIND-DAMAGE THREAT. THE FOCUS FOR MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT FARTHER W NEAR AND E OF THE DRYLINE BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADING A DESTABILIZING/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOWEST 100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS 13-16 G PER KG/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO VERY STRONG BUOYANCY /1500-3500 J PER KG MLCAPE/. THE WIND PROFILE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD DISTURBANCE AND UPPER-LEVEL BACKING ARE RESULTING IN SOME PROGGED WEAKNESSES THAT WILL PROBABLY PLAY A ROLE IN STORM LONGEVITY/INTENSITY. NONETHELESS...A WIND PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ WILL FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE TO VERY LARGE-HAIL THREAT...ISOLD SEVERE GUSTS...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES TOWARDS EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND HODOGRAPHS ENLARGE. A STORM CLUSTER OR TWO COULD EVOLVE PERHAPS NEAR THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT WITH A LINGERING HAIL/WIND THREAT INTO THE EARLY HOURS FRIDAY. ..CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST A WEAKENING CLUSTER OF TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY WITH IT PERHAPS POSING AN ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE RISK. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY ARC WWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WHERE STRONG HEATING IS FORECAST TO STRONGLY DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ELY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW N OF THE LOW IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO H5 HEIGHT FALLS /30 M PER 12 HR/ WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO ISOLD-SCTD STORMS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ERN CO AND DEVELOPING NEWD NEAR THE FRONT. STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH A VEERING/STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. RELATIVELY BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW NE OF THE SURFACE LOW MAY YIELD A PERIOD WHEN SRH INCREASES INTO THE 200-300 M2/S2 RANGE WITH A QUASI-DISCRETE MODE AND SOME LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE ENHANCEMENT PRIOR TO THE TERMINUS OF A SLY LLJ BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE EVENING AND LIKELY LEADING TO UPSCALE GROWTH OF A TSTM CLUSTER NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER. AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND VEERS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR E AS THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. ..SMITH.. 05/25/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Read: VBV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Read: VBV. Well aware. Still a bit uncertain as to the type of effects it'll produce, especially being above 500mb. Strong low-level winds will be in place on Thursday whenever CI occurs. 4/26 had terrible low-level winds when CI occurred, which led to a mess pretty quickly. So probably a much better threat than that day saw. Also mid-level winds on that day were pretty well backed, on thursday it is really only above 500mb. A bit different and more unclear as to the effects that it will have because of that. As long as tons of storm interactions can be avoided (like there were on 4/26 since mid-level winds were backed, and led to northerly storm motions) with the strong LLJ in place, we'll still have a pretty good severe storm threat-- including tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Well, big congrats to everyone who was out today. Very happy for all the chasecationers who chose their week wisely. I will say that after 10 years of "hardcore," obsessive chasing and something like 200-250 chases for me, today is absolutely beyond a shadow of a doubt #1 on my list. A career chase day if there ever was one. My initial impression is that only Harper Co. 5/29/04 and Woonsocket/Manchester 6/24/03 were better storms than DDC today in the 2000-present period. I hope you guys who are only here a few days out of the year can appreciate it properly, especially if this was your first year!! Maybe by sometime in June I'll get through my backlog of pics and video from the past 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 So what are all you chasecationers/chasers thinking preliminarily for today? If you plan on chasing of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Well, big congrats to everyone who was out today. Very happy for all the chasecationers who chose their week wisely. I will say that after 10 years of "hardcore," obsessive chasing and something like 200-250 chases for me, today is absolutely beyond a shadow of a doubt #1 on my list. A career chase day if there ever was one. My initial impression is that only Harper Co. 5/29/04 and Woonsocket/Manchester 6/24/03 were better storms than DDC today in the 2000-present period. I hope you guys who are only here a few days out of the year can appreciate it properly, especially if this was your first year!! Maybe by sometime in June I'll get through my backlog of pics and video from the past 3 days. So glad I was preoccupied and feeling lazy and decided to sit this one out in Norman. Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capbreak Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 4/26 had terrible low-level winds when CI occurred, which led to a mess pretty quickly[...] As long as tons of storm interactions can be avoided (like there were on 4/26 since mid-level winds were backed, and led to northerly storm motions) with the strong LLJ in place, we'll still have a pretty good severe storm threat-- including tornadoes. Being out on 4/26 and seeing 3 *brief* tornadoes (which somehow never made it to TOP as LSRs), I think the biggest single thing that would have helped that day is to have had a weaker OFB and/or more distance between the OFB and the warm front. Cells were just popping on that OFB like crazy and which lead to a large cold pool very early. You can't really forecast mesoscale influences like that unfortunately, but with everything else remaining the same, just slightly different OFB characteristics and the day could have been "salvaged" from a chasing perspective. As for what chasecationers are doing, most that I know and including myself are considering this a down day after a busy 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Some more from yesterday. Not sure if best shots but close enough https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/05/25/storm-chase-2016-we-just-got-an-up-close-view-of-last-nights-incredible-tornadoes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Turning our attention to Thursday, I'd like to see some VBV issues worked out and shear vectors more perpendicular to the dryline but all in all there look to be a few tornadoes late tomorrow afternoon/evening, especially as a strong LLJ backs more across the warm sector. Chasing wise, the NAM says WF while the GFS says dryline. Personally, I'll be someone along and just east of the dryline in Central KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Yeah central KS and north looks pretty significant. I'm probably done chasing this year, given the OK portion of the threat area looks like total garbage. And I easily couldve made the Dodge city storm and very much wanted to, but my chase partners were incredibly indecisive and made rather poor decisions. Safe to say I'm pretty fed up with the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Yeah central KS and north looks pretty significant. I'm probably done chasing this year, given the OK portion of the threat area looks like total garbage. And I easily couldve made the Dodge city storm and very much wanted to, but my chase partners were incredibly indecisive and made rather poor decisions. Safe to say I'm pretty fed up with the season! Sucks that you're the only one failing. You should give it another shot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 So what are all you chasecationers/chasers thinking preliminarily for today? If you plan on chasing of course. I'm sitting in Pratt right now. Also have to think about where I'm going to position myself for tomorrow and Friday. Probably will end up staying closer to 400 in S KS since playing the northern target tomorrow would lead to potentially missing a great day further south on Friday. I really like that trough axis right over the warm sector with the LLJ further W on the NAM. The Euro is surging the LLJ really far E on Friday, which doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 some pretty cool time lapses from the Dodge City area (see pinned tweet) https://twitter.com/WxKanost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Ah... So a bit of an off day today-- not like it isn't anyways... Anyways, heres the new D2. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1239 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016VALID 261200Z - 271200Z...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERNNEBRASKA...NRN AND CNTRL KS AND WRN OK......THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL PLAINSSWD INTO W CNTRL TX......THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRALU.S.......SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL AREEXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS FROMLATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ON THURSDAY...WITH MORE ISOLATEDSEVERE STORMS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL ASINTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAILAND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPERMISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION....SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS ON THURSDAYWITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CO AT 00Z AND A 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL JETMAX MOVING INTO WRN TX. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPENALONG THE CO/KS BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEARTHE KS/NE BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL BACK SFCWINDS ACROSS NEB...WITH THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING WWDINTO NERN CO. TO THE S...A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SSEWD FROM THE LOWINTO WRN OK...THEN BECOMING STATIONARY AND RETREATING INTO WRN TXLATE. THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH UPPER 60STO NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. DEEP LAYERWIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH A 50+ KT LOW-LEVEL JETDEVELOPING NEAR OR AFTER 00Z PERHAPS SUPPORTING A FEW STRONGTORNADOES ACROSS MAINLY SRN NEB INTO CNTRL KS ALONG WITH VERY LARGEHAIL.ANOTHER AREA OF SEVERE STORMS IS LIKELY INTO SWRN/CNTRL TX LATE INTHE DAY INTO THE EVENING AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SPREADSOVER A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS....NERN CO...SRN NEB...NRN KS...BACKING WINDS N OF THE SFC LOW WILL HELP BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS WWDINTO NERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE VERY COLD PROFILES ALOFT WILLCONTRIBUTE TO STRONG INSTABILITY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCINGLARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO...ALTHOUGH STRONG WIND FIELDSALOFT WILL BE EAST OF THIS AREA.THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE ALONGTHE WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE SFC LOW FROM SRN NEB INTO NRN AND CNTRLKS. HERE...VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT...ALONG WITHRAPIDLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLYEVENING HOURS WITH A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS ARE IN GOODAGREEMENT SHOWING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION...AND AMODERATE RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LATER OUTLOOKS....CNTRL KS SWD INTO WRN OK...HEATING AND A RAPID NWD TRANSPORT OF UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL LEADTO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY NEAR THE DRYLINE S OF THE SFC LOW ASUPPER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN. HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FORSUPERCELLS BY 21-00Z...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE.WHILE STORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THIS AREA...SIGNIFICANTSEVERE IS CONDITIONALLY LIKELY INCLUDING TORNADOES AND VERY LARGEHAIL. SOME BACKING OF THE WINDS IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGSMAINLY ABOVE 700 MB...BUT HODOGRAPHS REMAIN QUITE SUFFICIENT....W CNTRL TX INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND A STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL JETAIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERESTORMS OVER SWRN INTO CNTRL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL....NRN WI INTO UPPER MI...A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS NRN WI INTOUPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH.DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND SLY 850 MB FLOW PRECEDING THIS FEATUREWILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHTTO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREATSHOULD BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...JEWELL.. 05/25/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Wouldn't be surprised to see the cap breached sometime later in OK, as temps have soared into the 87-91 range (they will likely increase some too), and impressive DPs continue to be advected poleward... Chickasha is particularly impressive at 90/75. Anyways, surveys have really just started, but DDC can already confirm at least EF3 SSW of DDC yesterday (not sure which tornado it is from since they did not say.) Also, DOW7 from CSWR appears to have had a delta V of 90m/s... which equates to 201mph, not sure how high the beam was though, presumably it was pretty low. From Karen Kosiba on twitter: First, pretty sick image on reflectivity when the first tornado formed. Second, occluding circulation to the left in the rain (looks like a hurricane), with a new circulation forming. (Notice how strong the occluding circulation still is!) Also a 90m/s delta-v, pretty pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 That lower left image is what's known as The Eye of Horus, almost exactly: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 That lower left image is what's known as The Eye of Horus, almost exactly: eyeofhorus_tor.jpg actually, that's the eye of re. the eye of horus points the other direction/is the left eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 actually, that's the eye of re. the eye of horus points the other direction/is the left eye. I stand corrected! Figures there would be somebody here who would know about that. I just did a google image search for "eye of horus" and picked a result at random. So the Eye of Re is like an anticyclonic Eye of Horus. Cool resemblance either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Heading E out of Kingman. 75 dewpoint at ICT, will head north on K-14 towards HUT, can see towers trying to go up on the dryline to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 SPC also added 5% TOR risk at 20Z for this same area. Eerily similar look to yesterday with the orientation of dryline and OFB, SFC/LLVL winds just not nearly as backed attm. IF updrafts do go, they will be EXPLOSIVE. 4000-6000J/KG MUCAPE, thanks to MLVL Lapse Rates of 8.0-8.5C/KM... 35-40kt effective-shear as well... If any storms do form a tornado threat would likely become enhanced when LLJ influence kicks in. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0247 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL OK THROUGH ECNTRL KSCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 251947Z - 252145ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENTSUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP FROMNCNTRL OK TO ECNTRL KS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAINTHREAT...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM A SFC LOW INWCNTRL KS SWWD THROUGH WRN OK AND NWRN TX. EAST OF DRYLINE A TROUGHEXTENDS FROM CNTRL KS SWD INTO NCNTRL OK...AND THIS BOUNDARYINTERSECTS THE NRN PORTION OF AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THATEXTENDS FROM SRN AR THROUGH CNTRL AND NCNTRL OK. E-WQUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE SFC LOW IN WCNTRL KS ENEWDTHROUGH NCNTRL KS.LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERYUNSTABLE IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE EML PLUME HAS ADVECTED ABOVE AVERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE.HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE STILL APPEARS CAPPED IN THIS REGION JUDGING BYTHE CHARACTER OF THE LOW CLOUDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS MAYDEVELOP OVER NCNTRL OK INTO SCNTRL KS BY 22Z AT THE INTERSECTION OFTHERMAL/MOIST AXIS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAKLY CONVERGENTTROUGH/DRYLINE. GIVEN LINGERING CAP ASSOCIATED WITH EML PLUME ANDPRESENCE OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT...IT APPEARS LIKELYTHAT STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. HOWEVER...35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEARAND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGEHAIL. A WINDOW WILL ALSO EXIST FOR A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ASTHE LLJ STRENGTHENS DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARYLAYER DECOUPLES...DIAL/HART.. 05/25/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 some pretty cool time lapses from the Dodge City area (see pinned tweet) https://twitter.com/WxKanost They got some great shots out of that storm -- I'm slightly jealous. I'll be out there next week for a couple weeks. (Probably in time for a nice death ridge) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Special LMN sounding is pretty incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Special LMN sounding is pretty incredible. Sure is... Just for posterity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 50/20 probs. THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER NORTHERN OK AND CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE. WHILE ONLY A FEW STORMS MAY FORM...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THOSE CELLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 Looks like some towers trying to pop in SC KS... As well as near the meso-low in C KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 NWS Dodge City tweeted a picture of a 5" hailstone yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted May 25, 2016 Share Posted May 25, 2016 NWS Dodge City tweeted a picture of a 5" hailstone yesterday. verdict on whether it is fake? looked so to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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