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Active Severe Weather Pattern Beginning Next Week


Jim Martin

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Pretty impressive updraft on this thing... Has tops approaching 56KFT.

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN NOBLE COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

  NORTH CENTRAL PAYNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

 

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

    

* AT 243 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO

  WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF MORRISON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

 

  HAZARD...TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. 

 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

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Looks like AMA preliminarily rated the Turkey, TX tornado from last night as a low-end EF3, with estimated winds of 138mph. Was half-a-mile wide at times, and tracked about 7-8 miles. Was on the ground for quite a while though.

That's NWS Lubbock. No one was tweeting the right office yesterday.

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Good luck to everyone who's chasing today and stay safe.

 

And congratulations Andy on your first tornado yesterday! Based on your picture and the streams I saw, that thing looked really pretty.

 

Also, 80/50 probs on the new tornado watch for TX/OK/KS.

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This went up FAST. Scott City under the gun.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

 

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

    

* AT 404 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

  TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF SCOTT CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST

  AT 10 MPH.

 

  HAZARD...TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. 

 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. 

 

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND VEHICLES. 

 

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...

  SCOTT CITY AROUND 425 PM CDT. 

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Scott City, KS storm has a strengthening couplet...

cbd726328f3bd865d9b2d3b374e96363.jpg

50+kt inflow... Scott City better watch out, as it looks like it might go right over them. EDIT: Actually slightly NW, maybe effecting the NW side of town, if a tornado develops.

 

Brief tornado was reported.

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Couplet appears to be strengthening and tightening on latest scan. Oddly appears to be two separate areas of rotation. One almost right on top of Scott City that is a bit broad, and another west of town that is stronger/tighter. 

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Looks like this storm has thus far produced two tornadoes. First the brief tornado south of Modoc, then another east of Modoc. A bit surprising given that it is only 4:30pm... Tornado threat will ramp up significantly in the 23-03Z time frame, if any storms remain discrete during that time. Could be quite a show later on.

 

 

Meanwhile SVR warned supercell developing over the TX PH in Hutchinson Co.

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DDC AFD from this afternoon...

 

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS  
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY  
MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST DISTRICT AND A DRYLINE FARTHER TO THE  
SOUTHWEST. WE LAUNCHED AT 19Z SPECIAL SOUNDING. THERE IS PLENTY OF SBCAPE  
WITH VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG. THE SOUNDING DID SHOW A SIGNIFICANT CAP  
IN PLACE, BUT THIS SHOULD ERODE OVER TIME WITH CONTINUED SFC HEATING.  
WIND SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH 38 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR  
AND 21 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR FOR TORNADOES. THE 12Z 4 KM NAM SHOWED INTENSE  
SUPERCELLS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFT HELICITY.  
THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE SAME THING, ALTHOUGH DIFFERS IN LOCATION OF  
THE STORMS. CONVECTION SHOULD FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST  
KANSAS (PROBABLY FROM GARDEN CITY DOWN TO MEADE) AND THEN MOVE TO THE  
EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THREATS WILL INCLUDE TORNADOES (SOME OF WHICH  
COULD BE STRONG), GIANT HAIL OF 3-4"
, AND OUTFLOW WINDS AS THE SYSTEM  
COULD FORM INTO A LINE LATER ON IN THE EVENING. THE CENTRAL ZONES ARE  
MOST UNDER THE GUN AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER IS CONCERNED.  

 

 

post-7962-0-90227500-1464126875_thumb.pn

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Base of the Fowler-Mineola cell: 8273d11d458207cdaa23191f0990a700.jpg

Looks pretty good for barely being any thing on radar. Volume scan shows quite a collection of updrafts in that area, pretty tilted too... hopefully they all congeal/ get better organized... Meanwhile another updraft--that is up to 50KFT-- just went up near Liberal, looks high-based for now though... given that it is on the hot/drier side of the boundary that does not surprise me much. Should look better when it gets on the moist side, if the updraft maintains that long.

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And we are off to the races... Storms SW of DDC quickly organizing, appears to have busted the cap.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN FORD COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN MEADE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...
 
* UNTIL 600 PM CDT
 
* AT 516 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF
  FOWLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
 
  HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 
 
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 
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