jojo762 Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Pretty conservative, but it is day 3. Would anticipate a more strongly worded outlook with mentions of upgrade for the day 2 unless models begin down trending A bit surprised by SPC's reluctancy to mention anything about strong tornadoes--not that it really matters in the grand scheme of things, but it is still nice to see-- for any of these days... The potential is obviously there, and there has already been a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Andy congratulations on bagging your first tor yesterday! Don't let it spoil you though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Saw my first tornadoes today on the Woodward, OK tornadic supercell with Jon (i.e. nwburbschaser on here). Fantastic job Andy! Congrats! I'll never forget my first tornado, happened to me in my home county nonetheless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Mine too June 5, 2010. Well our first visible tornado. We were on the Yazoo City EF4 back in April but that was so wrapped in rain. But we heard it and got nailed by RFD and debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Outflow boundary in southern Kansas looks like the obvious play today. Hrrr likes the dryline in the Panhandle as well, while the 4km Nam suggest SW Oklahoma is a good play. Many options to choose from today! Any thoughts on which ends up being the best? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Outflow boundary in southern Kansas looks like the obvious play today. Hrrr likes the dryline in the Panhandle as well, while the 4km Nam suggest SW Oklahoma is a good play. Many options to choose from today! Any thoughts on which ends up being the best? OFB/Dryline intersection is what I'd personally play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 24, 2016 Author Share Posted May 24, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Sitting near Buffalo just E of the 64/183 junction. Has the feel of a bigger day with already moderate ESE winds near this outflow boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 24, 2016 Author Share Posted May 24, 2016 The 14z HRRR keeps the action rather discrete through later tonight across the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 24, 2016 Author Share Posted May 24, 2016 Could get interesting later today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 24, 2016 Author Share Posted May 24, 2016 The 4km NAM look for this evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 24, 2016 Author Share Posted May 24, 2016 Literally sitting on a powder keg in western Oklahoma... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 24, 2016 Author Share Posted May 24, 2016 Here we go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Sitting near Buffalo just E of the 64/183 junction. Has the feel of a bigger day with already moderate ESE winds near this outflow boundary.100% this. Juiced out there. We're hanging in WWR near where we stayed last night. Probably will head out to position in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Some conditional wording here, but I'm excited for tomorrow. Just gotta get some storms to break through the cap it sounds like... ...ERN KS INTO MO... EARLY STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING FROM ERN KS INTO NRN MO SUPPORTED BY WARM ADVECTION WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F SURGING NWD. STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP UPSTREAM OF THE EARLY ACTIVITY...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY POSSIBLY PRESENT IN THE AREA WHICH COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LATER DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY FAVORABLE HERE FOR SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT IS CONDITIONAL GIVEN LACK OF ANY UPPER SUPPORT AFTER THE EARLY WAVE MOVES THROUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Here we go... The HRRR forecasts some updraft-helicity into Morgan County/Adams County Colorado. That's the usual area for developing supercells, also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 I'm really surprised there isn't a 10% tornado risk out for OK and KS. I wish I could get the latest graphics and discussion to load but ht network is just outrageously bad this week. Today is looking more impressive than I gave it credit for. Shear still shows to be lacking on the latest GFS at 00Z and a bit more surface backing would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 24, 2016 Author Share Posted May 24, 2016 Storms already starting to fire east of Vance Air Force Base, Oklahoma... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Leaving work at 4:30 today, which should give me a good 2 hour window for anything in NW Oklahoma before sundown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 I'm really surprised there isn't a 10% tornado risk out for OK and KS. I wish I could get the latest graphics and discussion to load but ht network is just outrageously bad this week. Today is looking more impressive than I gave it credit for. Shear still shows to be lacking on the latest GFS at 00Z and a bit more surface backing would be nice. There is a 10% risk at the OK/KS border and also near Sterling, CO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 DDC VWP as of 1830Z shows impressive 0-3km low-level directional shear, currently on the "cool-side" of the boundary, which is likely where the highest tornado risk will reside today. Also along a SBCAPE gradient that, with ~3000J/KG SBCAPE @DDC as of 18Z. TONS of Vorticity along the OFB, and quite a bit of 0-3KM CAPE, along with low LCLs. Looks like a good recipe for tornadoes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Showers are developing in the high elevations, which could be supercells later as they track towards better moisture. That's just fascinating to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 A 'High' probability Tornado Watch for the Denver metro area is rare. That's what we have today.URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTORNADO WATCH NUMBER 203NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1240 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFNORTHEAST COLORADO* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM UNTIL800 PM MDT.* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLEWIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAILEVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLESCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLESUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM SOON OVER THE FOOTHILLS NEARDENVER AND SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLYEVENING. PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERYLARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTEMILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF DENVERCOLORADO TO 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF AKRON COLORADO. FOR ACOMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINEUPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 A 'High' probability Tornado Watch for the Denver metro area is rare. That's what we have today. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 203 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM UNTIL 800 PM MDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM SOON OVER THE FOOTHILLS NEAR DENVER AND SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PARAMETERS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF DENVER COLORADO TO 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF AKRON COLORADO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). 70/30 probs... Pretty solid. Expect that the watch in OK/KS later on will have even better probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 24, 2016 Author Share Posted May 24, 2016 First supercell of the day south of Red Rock, Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 I was struck by the difference in "feel" to the air this morning, with DPs in the 20s yesterday but around 40 at sunrise today. I think this may be one of those situations where the Metro area might not get clobbered, but we may see impressive development just as the cells exit the most populated areas. DPs are in low 40s near I-25 but upper 40s-50 just 20 miles east. Winds are pretty brisk from the East though, so we may yet moisten more. High prob of a tornado in the watch area, but the Metro area is at the far southwest corner. My bet would be Fort Morgan-Sterling for some fun. I do not yet have the glass top on our patio table, so we won't get large hail but our neighbors might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 Looks like AMA preliminarily rated the Turkey, TX tornado from last night as a low-end EF3, with estimated winds of 138mph. Was half-a-mile wide at times, and tracked about 7-8 miles. Was on the ground for quite a while though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 The first larger cell of the day in Colorado, near Golden and Clear Creek Canyon, tracking toward Denver. Dual-pol radar already suggesting hail in this storm (not necessarily large hail) Edit: 3 seconds after I posted this, there was a severe warning issued by BOU for half-dollar size hail. They are anticipating that the storm strengthens, which makes tons of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 The first larger cell of the day in Colorado, near Golden and Clear Creek Canyon, tracking toward Denver. Dual-pol radar already suggesting hail in this storm (not necessarily large hail) Went SVR warned... Possibly some rotation on the cell right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 24, 2016 Share Posted May 24, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0231 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS TO EAST TX PANHANDLE/WEST OKCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELYVALID 241931Z - 242130ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENTSUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THEDRYLINE AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TOEARLY EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADIC STORMS...ANDISOLATED SEVERE WINDS ARE LIKELY.DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A CYCLONE NEAR HAMILTONCOUNTY KS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL TXPANHANDLE...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS INTONORTH-CENTRAL KS AND ANOTHER CONFLUENT BOUNDARY THROUGH NORTHWESTOK. THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR AIR MASS IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPEOF 2500-3500 J/KG AMID UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS.HIGH-BASED CU HAS COMMENCED BEHIND THE DRYLINE IN THE TX PANHANDLEAND STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TIED TO THELEFT-EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET SHOULDRESULT IN STORM INITIATION BY 21Z. FARTHER NORTH....CLUMPING CU NEARTHE CYCLONE SHOULD INITIATE INTO STORMS IN A SIMILAR TIME FRAME.VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 9 DEG C/KM FROM 700-500 MB ASSAMPLED BY 19Z AMA RAOB WILL BE QUITE CONDUCIVE TO INTENSE UPDRAFTACCELERATION ONCE STORMS INITIATE. AS SUCH...VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULDBE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THISEVENING...TORNADO/WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z...GRAMS/HART.. 05/24/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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