jojo762 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Fwiw... No VBV shown on VNX VAD... DDC VAD has VBV but it is above 500mb... ICT VAD is improving... So as it sits wind fields might be improving, especially as LLJ influence begins (if it does) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 looks like there is currently a tornado in the KC Metro (airport area) AT 414 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WEATHERBYLAKE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 On 5/26/2016 at 8:14 PM, andyhb said: Severe VBV down low on the LMN sounding. Models completely screwed that up.Interesting to see any decent trough eject out this season either have VBV and/or early convection issues.Meanwhile several days in the last week have produced big, with a weak flow over the open warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 On 5/26/2016 at 9:12 PM, andyhb said: Excellent forecasting technique. Hard to deny that it ruins everything. Both times VBV was shown on models for a potentially high-end event, it ended up being worse than was shown. Just pessimism, not "forecasting technique."Still potential later on I guess if there is any instability left over from this mess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 On 5/26/2016 at 9:02 PM, jojo762 said: Far more significant than was modeled VBV, and thus far crappy shear FTW. Anytime I ever see VBV again, I am automatically saying mess and very little tornado threat. I'm not real sure that's how this works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo radley Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 On 5/26/2016 at 9:17 PM, Chinook said: looks like there is currently a tornado in the KC Metro (airport area) AT 414 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WEATHERBY LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. Surprised no one us talking about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Looks like between Weatherby Lake and Ferrellview, a debris marker popped up for 2 scans on CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 On 5/26/2016 at 9:21 PM, Wmsptwx said: Surprised no one us talking about this. Cell east of KC quickly getting hooky as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 The 'junky' looking storm mode was modeled on the HRRR last night, although it was farther south across OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 On 5/26/2016 at 9:23 PM, downeastnc said: Cell east of KC quickly getting hooky as well... Completely away from all other convection too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 MO starting to look interesting. Two good looking supercells with 0-1km shear on the upswing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 On 5/26/2016 at 9:25 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Completely away from all other convection too. That cell to the SE looks pretty hooky too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Both of those cells already into MO look dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Impressive rotation almost over Chilhowee. Not warned yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 KSHB-TV coverage is starting to mention possible tornado damage, but they have no definite details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 On 5/26/2016 at 9:20 PM, rolltide_130 said: I'm not real sure that's how this works. well until I see otherwise, that will be my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 On 5/26/2016 at 9:16 PM, jojo762 said: Fwiw... No VBV shown on VNX VAD... VNX is down for repairs. I don't know what data you are looking at. The veer-back-veer (or veer-back) wind profiles may be just a piece of the problem so far. The large scale lift from two jet streaks (north and south) helped kick off a lot of storms early, which doesn't bode well for well-formed discrete storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 On 5/26/2016 at 9:01 PM, David Reimer said: Sitting in Pratt, KS thinking of how many different ways I can describe today down here. Crappy, cool, and damp are a few. Cell to your south looks like it's strengthening and will track right to where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 On 5/26/2016 at 9:31 PM, jojo762 said: well until I see otherwise, that will be my thinking. It's not as simple as "OH THERE'S VBV SO BUST!". There's a ton of other factors that come into play. Does convection fire off to early? Is there too much lift so therefore too many storms get going at once? Is there enough 0-1km shear for mesos to get going at the lowest level? There have been several major events with VBV (Such as 5/24/11), so taking one look at the VBV signature and then judging whether an event verifies or busts based on that is an extremely simple-minded way of thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 On 5/26/2016 at 9:34 PM, Chinook said: VNX is down for repairs. I don't know what data you are looking at. The veer-back-veer (or veer-back) wind profiles may be just a piece of the problem so far. The large scale lift from two jet streaks (north and south) helped kick off a lot of storms early, which doesn't bode well for well-formed discrete storms. ah yes. Didn't see 0126Z time lol. Still stands from ICT and DDC. Messy storm modes can largely be attributed to the VBV imo, plenty of past events have fired off early, but had quality wind fields in place so we saw "good" storms. 4/14/12 rings a bell. Struggling today with data and everything today because only have my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 On 5/26/2016 at 9:40 PM, rolltide_130 said: It's not as simple as "OH THERE'S VBV SO BUST!". There's a ton of other factors that come into play. Does convection fire off to early? Is there too much lift so therefore too many storms get going at once? Is there enough 0-1km shear for mesos to get going at the lowest level? There have been several major events with VBV (Such as 5/24/11), so taking one look at the VBV signature and then judging whether an event verifies or busts based on that is an extremely simple-minded way of thinking. my lord. I explained this in some of my forecast ideas earlier this morning and yesterday about other factors. I am well aware of the many factors that go into a forecast bro. I welcome you to look at RAOBs from 5/24/11, there was no VBV except at DDC (which as well outside of the threat area.) Also look at the wind fields shown on the SPC's violent tornado days page... Sorry just irritated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Cell in MO needs to be watched. Inflow looks rather impressive and the cells to the south aren't growing quickly enough to cut it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Looks as if another round of initiation to begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Also an active severe day here in Texas. Tornado warning in Fayette County, about an hour and a half's drive east of me, and already damage from a tornado near College Station today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 So the Tornado-warned storm in Missouri is heading towards about 40 billion dollars worth of airplanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 KVNX radar (Vance Air Force Base) looks like it's back up for those of you dropping south from Kansas into Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Sitting south of Coldwater, KS watching struggling towers to the west. Temperature in Greensburg was 74F with light wind. Just 25 miles south the temperature has soared to 88 degrees with gusty southeast winds and clear skies. Still hoping stuff on the KS/OK border can go but this day has stunk for me so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Tornado on the ground at white man air force base Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 On 5/26/2016 at 10:19 PM, janetjanet998 said: Tornado on the ground at white man air force base Well, let's hope the Stealth bombers don't get damaged. Those are expensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted May 26, 2016 Share Posted May 26, 2016 Let's see what these storms by DDC do. The VAD profiles show much less VBV in that area compared to Wichita. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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