2016 NATL tropical season (hurricanes & tropical storms) contest

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts -- Tropical season 2016

 

 

Seasonal forecasts are adjusted where necessary to add Alex (January) and Bonnie (May). If your seasonal listed here is higher than what you posted, it is because your total did not include Alex and in some cases Bonnie. If you provided no monthly forecasts, these have been calculated from a scaled equivalent of the contest normals. All forecasters can post updated monthly numbers at any time (penalties apply after first of month in question). The contest remains open for new forecasts, but time penalties are increasing daily, your seasonal score would be reduced by 20% as of today, and you would be scored from 1 0 0 for June in the monthly category if your seasonal was lower than 16 9 x, from 2 1 0 if 16 10+ x, and 2 0 0 if 17+ 9- x.

 

 

FORECASTER ___ Season __ Pre-June __ JUN ___JUL ___AUG ___SEP ___OCT ___NOV-DEC

 

 

varicweather _____ 27 11 4 ____ 2 1 0 ____ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 6 2 1 __10 5 2__ 4 2 1 __ 2 0 0

SouthMDwatcher _ 22 14 6 ____ 2 1 0 ____ 2 1 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 4 3 1 __ 6 4 3 __ 4 3 2 __ 2 1 0

Tom ____________20 10 2 ____ 2 1 0 ____ 2 1 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 5 2 0 __ 5 3 2 __ 3 1 0 __ 0 0 0

Roger Smith _____ 19 13 4 ____ 2 1 0 ____ 1 1 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 5 5 2 __ 3 3 1 __ 2 0 0

Mallow _________ 18 11 5 _____2 1 0 ____ 1 0 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 4 3 1 __ 5 4 3 __ 4 2 1 __ 1 0 0 

metalicwx366 ____ 18 10 5 _____2 1 0 ____ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 4 3 2 __ 5 3 2 __ 3 2 1 __ 1 0 0

ksammut ________ 18 5 2 _____ 2 1 0 ____ 2 0 0 __ 3 1 0 __ 3 1 0 __ 4 1 1 __ 3 1 1 __ 1 0 0

DonSutherland.1 __17 10 5 _____2 1 0 ____ 1 1 0 __ 0 0 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 6 3 3 __ 3 2 1 __ 1 1 0

Eduardo _________17 10 4_____2 1 0 ____ 1 0 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 3 2 1 __ 1 1 0

NWLinnCountyIA __ 17 9 3 _____2 1 0 ____ 1 0 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 4 2 0 __ 1 0 0

Dmillz25 _________17 8 3 _____ 2 1 0 ____ 2 0 0 __ 3 1 1 __ 3 2 0 __ 4 3 2 __ 2 1 0 __ 1 0 0          

U Thant _________ 16 9 5 _____ 2 1 0 ____ 1 0 0 __ 1 1 0 __  3 2 1 __ 5 3 3 __ 3 1 1 __ 1 1 0

 

Consensus _______16 9 3 _____ 2 1 0 ____  1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 4 3 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 3 1 0 __ 1 0 0

 

Stebo ___________ 16 9 4 _____ 2 1 0 ____ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 1 __ 3 2 1 __ 4 3 1 __ 3 1 1 __ 1 0 0

NCforecaster89 ___ 16 9 4 _____ 2 1 0 ____ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 4 3 2 __ 3 2 1 __ 1 0 0 

Rjay ____________ 16 9 3 _____ 2 1 0 ____ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 4 3 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 2 1 0 __ 0 0 0

BKViking ________ 16 9 3 _____ 2 1 0 ____ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 5 4 2 __ 2 1 0 __ 1 0 0

wxmx ___________ 16 8 4 _____ 2 1 0 ____ 2 0 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 5 3 2 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0

 

Contest Normal ___ 16 8 3 _____ 2 1 0 ____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 2 1 __ 0 0 0

 

OHweather _______15 8 3 _____ 2 1 0 ____ 1 0 0 __ 1 1 0 __ 2 1 1 __ 5 3 1 __ 3 2 1 __ 0 0 0

OhioWx __________15 7 2 _____ 2 1 0 ____ 1 1 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 2 0 __ 5 2 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0

Andyhb __________15 6 3 _____ 2 1 0 ____ 1 0 0 __ 2 0 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 4 2 1 __ 2 1 1 __ 1 0 0

 

NHC mid-range ___ 14 7 2.5 ____2 1 0 ____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 4 3 1.5 _2 1 0 __ 1 0 0

 

Ginx SNEwx ______13 8 3 _____ 2 1 0 ____ 1 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 3 2 1 __ 4 3 1 __ 2 2 1 __ 0 0 0

Dopplerwx _______ 13 7 2 _____ 2 1 0 ____ 0 0 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 4 2 1 __ 4 3 1 __ 2 1 0 __ 0 0 0

BTRWx _________ 10 6 1 ______2 1 0 ____ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 4 3 1 __ 1 1 0 __ 0 0 0 __ 0 0 0

BTRWx edits _____ 10 6 1 _____ 2 1 0 ____ 1 0 0 __ 2 1 0 __ 4 3 1 __ 2 1 0 __ 1 0 0 __ 

 

_____________________________________________________________

 

 

Consensus is median of forecasts, monthlies do not add up to seasonal.

 

NHC forecast is middle of their range, NHC is not part of Consensus.

 

Monthlies derived from contest normal for NHC and in absence of any entries, for Ginx SNEwx.

 

I have set NHC a little above middle of their range in case their numbers are meant to apply only to the rest of the season. The actual mid-range would be 13 6 2.5 ... For Ginx SNEwx, I have assumed that his forecast includes the 2 1 0 already recorded.

BTRwx edited Sept and Oct under the contest rules, I did not spot these edits until Sept 30, otherwise to the best of my knowledge no other edited changes or submitted changes in posts have been made and everyone else continues to play off their original submissions.

 

 

[Roger Smith]

June has managed to reach 2/0/0, with Colin and Danielle each having a brief burst of named-storm intensity. Danielle was the earliest fourth named storm on record.

 

This may not be the final count either with another area under investigation.

 

Anyone who wishes to change their July forecast can do so without penalty for the rest of June.

[Roger Smith]

It would appear that we will soon exit July with a zero tally (0 / 0 / 0) but some prospects for a fast start in August.

Under contest rules anyone is free to change their August forecast at this point without penalty (before 06z). 

I will post a table of scores to date based on the 10% of total score that applies to June and July monthly forecasts.

[Roger Smith]

Scoring report for June and July

Monthly forecasts account for half the total score, or 50 points. June is worth 4 of those and July is worth 6. These are "half-error" months as will be the Nov-Dec 2 point segment. The main months of August, September and October are "full error reduction" months. What this means is that your score reduction for errors in June, July and Nov-Dec is cut in half, the same errors will cost more of the abundant mid-season points. 

Scoring is based on this formula -- perfect forecast gives a full score, each error in storm, hurricane and major hurricane component results in a reduction by the average of error and error squared. Here's one example. A forecast of 3 in July and an actual of zero (storms, for illustration purposes) is an error score reduction of (3+9) / 2 which is 12/2 or 6. July is a half-error month so that 6 points reduces to 3. This gives a net of 3 points out of 6 before considering errors for hurricanes and major hurricanes. Any negative net score is counted as zero points. 

Here's what you have scored in June and July ...

 

FORECASTER __ Season ____ Jan-May __ June __ July __ TOTAL SCORE SO FAR

 

Actual count ______ 4 1 0 _____ 2 1 0 ___ 200 4.0 __ 000 6.0 __ (10 points)

 

varicweather _____ 27 11 4 ____ 2 1 0 ___ 100 3.5 __ 210 4.0 ____ 7.5

SouthMDwatcher _ 22 14 6 ____ 2 1 0 ___ 210 3.5 __ 210 4.0 ____ 7.5

Tom ____________20 10 2 ____ 2 1 0 ___ 210 3.5 __ 320 1.5 ____ 5.0

Roger Smith _____ 19 13 4 ____ 2 1 0 ___ 110 3.0 __ 210 4.0 ____ 7.0 

Mallow _________ 18 11 5 _____2 1 0 ___ 100 3.5 __ 110 5.0 ____ 8.5  

metalicwx366 ____ 18 10 5 _____2 1 0 ___ 100 3.5 __ 210 4.0 ____ 7.5

ksammut ________ 18 5 2 _____ 2 1 0 ___ 200 4.0 __ 310 2.5 ____ 6.5

DonSutherland.1 __17 10 5 _____2 1 0 ___ 110 3.0 __ 000 6.0 ____ 9.0

Eduardo _________17 10 4_____2 1 0 ___ 100 3.5 __ 110 5.0 ____ 8.5

NWLinnCountyIA __ 17 9 3 _____2 1 0 ___ 100 3.5 __ 110 5.0 ____ 8.5

Dmillz25 _________17 8 3 _____ 2 1 0 ___ 200 4.0  __ 311 2.0 ____ 6.0          

U Thant _________ 16 9 5 _____ 2 1 0 ___ 100 3.5 __ 110 5.0 ____ 8.5

 

Consensus _______16 9 3 _____ 2 1 0 ___  100 3.5 __ 210 4.0 ____ 7.5

 

Stebo ___________ 16 9 4 _____ 2 1 0 ___ 100 3.5 __ 211 3.5 ____ 7.0

NCforecaster89 ___ 16 9 4 _____ 2 1 0 ___ 100 3.5 __ 210 4.0 ____ 7.5  

Rjay ____________ 16 9 3 _____ 2 1 0 ___ 100 3.5 __ 210 4.0 ____ 7.5 

BKViking ________ 16 9 3 _____ 2 1 0 ___ 100 3.5 __ 210 4.0 ____ 7.5 

wxmx ___________ 16 8 4 _____ 2 1 0 ___ 200 4.0 __ 110 5.0 ____ 9.0

 

Contest Normal ___ 16 8 3 _____ 2 1 0 ___ 100 3.5 __ 100 5.5 ____ 9.0 

 

OHweather _______15 8 3 _____ 2 1 0 ___ 100 3.5 __ 110 5.0 ____ 8.5 

OhioWx __________15 7 2 _____ 2 1 0 ___ 110 3.0 __ 100 5.5 ____ 8.5

Andyhb __________15 6 3 _____ 2 1 0 ___ 100 3.5 __ 200 4.5 ____ 8.0 

 

NHC mid-range ___ 14 7 2.5 ____2 1 0 ___ 100 3.5 __ 100 5.5 ____ 9.0 

 

Ginx SNEwx ______13 8 3 _____ 2 1 0 ___ 100 3.5 __ 100 5.5 ____ 9.0 

Dopplerwx _______ 13 7 2 _____ 2 1 0 ___ 000 2.5 __ 100 5.5 ____ 8.0 

BTRWx _________ 10 6 1 ______2 1 0 ___ 100 3.5 __ 210 4.0 ____ 7.5

_________________________________________________________________

This table will gradually expand to cover all months and finally the seasonal portion worth 50 points.  

[Roger Smith]

The count so far in August is 3/2/1 and for the season 7/3/1.

If the NHC forecasts for TD8 and TD9 verify, with TS status achieved before September begins, then the August count will end up at 5/2/1 and the season will sit at 9/3/1. That is, assuming no other named storms come into existence by the end of Wed 31st. 

Anyone in the contest has the opportunity to revise September or other later months before the end of August (seasonal forecasts are locked in). I will expand the scoring summary once I have a confirmed count for August. Remember, under contest rules, if either 8 or 9 (Hermine or Ian possibly not in that order) happen to go hurricane after September begins, that will stay with August in our contest (once named, all exploits go with the first named month). Gaston has already done everything it can do (and fish tremble with fear). 

[Roger Smith]

(on holiday, brief update)

Looks as though August count (by contest rules) is 4/3/1. Hermine became a hurricane, TD 8 never got a name.

SCORING UPDATES TUES 6th,

[Roger Smith]

Scoring update for August to November

Under contest rules, the August count is 4/3/1 although Hermine only gained hurricane status on September 1st. I will provide an alternate scoring table at the end of the year with month of occurrence as the basis, in that table, August will be scored from 4/2/1 and at this point September from 5/2/1.

(Sept 30th) _ Have adjusted seasonal count, September to date is 5/1/1 .

Sept 30 _ Have now updated scoring to include September which has reached 5 1 1 . The actual count in this table will be adjusted when required (and through October).

Oct 6 __ Seasonal count is adjusted for Nicole becoming a hurricane. October points available in italics, October and Nov-Dec forecasts now in the table but no scores posted.

Oct 6 __ Seasonal score will now be estimated from a defined end point that will change as we get closer to the end of the season. At this point the seasonal scores were based on 17 7 3. These scores replace the Jan-May 2 1 0 entry which remains in the "actual count" line. All seasonal forecasts were adjusted to reflect whether or not your seasonal had included the Jan-May pre-season events.

Oct 12 __ Seasonal score was based on 17 7 3, the above entry edited today, thanks to Nicole becoming a major hurricane. This also boosts the October total so far to 1 1 1 and seasonal to 14 6 3.

Oct 24 __ Seasonal score is now based on 15 7 3, an arbitrary guess updated after last week's non-event reduces the October projection to 111. Nov-Dec is set at 110 in the provisional scoring table that follows. This scoring estimate will be edited again if we seem to be converging on a different seasonal total. After Nov 15 it will always be the current seasonal total until that runs out on Dec 31. I have also added provisional scoring for October based on 1 1 1, this remains subject to change. November scores are also shown for 1 1 0 but as that's only from a maximum of 2 points, it can't change very much. If you're in contention, study the math and see what your best Nov-Dec forecast should be. Error points are cut in half. These monthly provisionals are in red italics. The seasonal provisional score is in bold italics after your seasonal forecast. 

Oct 31 __ October appears to be heading for 1 1 1 finish with no systems in play 31st 03z.

Nov 22 __ Table now updated to show Nov-Dec 1 1 0 (Otto became a hurricane today).

 

FORECASTER _ Season _ Jan-May_June __July __ Aug __ Sept __Oct __Nov-Dec ___ 

___ Actual count __15 7 3_(210) _200 4.0 _000 6.0 _43112 _51116 _ 11110 __ 110

_________ based on 15 7 3 _ 50 ______________________________________1102__ TOTAL SCORE (rank)

varicweather _____27 11 4__ 0 _100 3.5 _210 4.0 _621 8_1052 0_4213_2001.0___19.5 (23)

SouthMDwatcher _22 14 6 __ 0 _210 3.5 _210 4.0 _43112 _643 6_4320_2101.5___27.0 (22)

Tom ___________ 20 10 2 _ 28 _210 3.5 _320 1.5 _520 9 _53212_3106_0001.0___61.0 (20)

Roger Smith _____19 13 4 _ 18 _110 3.0 _210 4.0 _42111 _552 5_3314_2001.0___46.0 (21)

Mallow _________18 11 5 __31 _100 3.5 _110 5.0 _43112 _543 7_4213_1001.5___ 63.0 (19)

metalicwx366 ____18 10 5__35 _100 3.5 _210 4.0 _43211 _53212_3216_1001.5___73.0 (17)

ksammut ________18 5 2 __40 _200 4.0 _310 2.5 _310 7 _ 41115_3117_1001.5___77.0 (15)

DonSutherland.1__17 10 5__38 _110 3.0 _000 6.0 _42111 _633 9_3216_1102.0___ 75.0 (16)

Eduardo ________ 17 10 4__40 _100 3.5 _110 5.0 _42111 _53212_3216_1102.0___79.5 (12)

NWLinnCountyIA __17 9 3 __44 _100 3.5 _110 5.0 _32110 _53212_4202_1001.5___78.0 (14)

Dmillz25 _________17 8 3 __46 _200 4.0 _311 2.0 _320 9 _43211_2108_1001.5___81.5 (10)

U Thant _________ 16 9 5 __43 _100 3.5 _110 5.0 _32110 _53310_3106_1102.0___79.5 (12)

Stebo ___________ 16 9 4 __45 _100 3.5 _211 3.5 _32110 _43112_3117_1001.5___82.5 ( 8)

NCforecaster89 ___ 16 9 4 __45 _100 3.5 _210 4.0 _32110 _43211_3216_1001.5___81.0 (11)

 

Consensus _______16 9 3 __46 _100 3.5 _210 4.0 _43112 _53212_3106 _1001.5___ 85.0 ( 7)

 

Rjay ____________ 16 9 3 __46 _100 3.5 _210 4.0 _43112 _53212_2108_0001.0___ 86.5 ( 4)

BKViking _________16 9 3 __46 _100 3.5 _210 4.0 _32110 _542 9_2108_1001.5___ 82.0 ( 9)

wxmx ___________ 16 8 4 __48 _200 4.0 _110 5.0 _32110 _53212_2119_1001.5___ 88.5 ( 3)

 

Contest Normal ___ 16 8 3 __48 _100 3.5 _100 5.5 _42111 _53113_3216 _0001.0___ 88.0 ( 4)

 

OHweather _______15 8 3 __49 _100 3.5 _110 5.0 _211 6 _53113_3216 _0001.0___ 83.5 ( 7)

OhioWx __________15 7 2 __49 _110 3.0 _100 5.5 _320 9 _52115_2119_1001.5___ 92.0 ( 1)

Andyhb __________15 6 3 __49 _100 3.5 _200 4.5 _32110 _42114_2119_1001.5___91.5 (2)

 

NHC mid-range __ 14 7 2.5_48.6_100 3.5 _100 5.5 _32110_431.511.6_2108_1001.5_88.7 ( 3)

 

Ginx SNEwx ______13 8 3 __46 _100 3.5 _100 5.5 _32110 _43112_2218 _0001.0___ 86.0 ( 5)

Dopplerwx _______ 13 7 2 __46 _000 2.5 _100 5.5 _42111 _43112_2108 _0001.0___ 86.0 ( 5)

BTRWx __________10 6 1 __31 _100 3.5 _210 4.0 _43112 _210 9_1008 _0001.0___ 68.5 (18)

_____________________________________________________________________

Monthly portion /50 ... totals ( > consensus 39.0)

Ohiowx 43.0 Andyhb 42.5, wxmx 41.5, Rjay 40.5,

NHC 40.1, Contest Normal 40.0; Ginx 40.0, Dopplerwx 40.0, 

Eduardo 39.5; Consensus 39.0,;

Metalicwx366 38.0; Stebo 37.5, BTRwx 37.5

Ksammut, DonSutherland.1 37.0

UThant 36.5; NCForecaster89 36.0.

Ranks in table are shown without tied designations, and your rank is calculated as if Consensus, Normal and NHC mid-range were not contest entrants, but their ranks are shown as if they were. We have 23 forecasters entered plus those three. 

Once again, to clarify what the table shows, scores from June to September are confirmed, scores for Oct and Nov-Dec are based on the provisionals shown in the line above the scoring, and also the seasonal forecasts are scored against a provisional total of 15 7 3. These provisional scores are in italics and will be updated when confirmed (changes may occur). 

THIS SHOULD BE AN EXCITING CONTEST FINISH, WATCH FOR UPDATES IN THE SCORING TABLE ...

Note: if you do update Nov-Dec, please post or if you edit, send me a PM. 

[Roger Smith]

Just a note on contest rules, now that Matthew has arrived before end of September and quickly reached hurricane then major hurricane status, that of course belongs to September in the scoring. September is now confirmed to be 5/1/1 under the rules. If we did it the other way (month of activity) then (edit Sept 30) as a result of Matthew already becoming a hurricane, the alternate counts would be 4/2/1 for August rather than 4/3/1 (Hermine became a hurricane on Sept 1st) and at this point 5/2/1 for September.

I will at the end of the contest (in early January) provide an alternate scoring report based on month of occurrence. That will involve re-scoring August and September and in most cases people will gain points there. If you predicted two hurricanes in August you'll gain one point in the alternate system, if you predicted three you'll lose one; if you predicted one hurricane you'll gain two points in the alternate system. Also, if you predicted 2 hurricanes in September, you'll gain one point, if you predicted three, you'll gain two points in the alternate scoring system. That covers most of the field. This gives you two ways to win but I am guessing the scores will be fairly similar on both systems (it won't change the seasonal count or scoring, which is 50% of the total).

Anyone who wants to change their October forecast can do so before end of Friday without penalty. Seasonal forecasts are locked in. Please post any updates separately or if you've edited your original post, send me a PM.

Also, if I get any indications of a re-assessment on Karl which never quite made it to hurricane status, that will count as official if the re-assessment is in the calendar year, but hypothetical if it happens in 2017 (I might in that case provide updated alternate scoring tables FYI).

NOTE: SCORING TABLE HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR SEPTEMBER SCORES ASSUMING FINAL COUNT 5/1/1, SEE PREVIOUS POST FOR SCORING. 

[Roger Smith]

FINAL STAGE OF CONTEST

_____________________________

 

There are only 2 points available in Nov-Dec. I have updated the provisional scoring table (two posts back) and this shows your score on all elements (seasonal, monthlies) assuming as of (edit Nov 22) that no more storms occur in October (count 1 1 1 ) and that Otto remains a non-major hurricane, making Nov-Dec (1 1 0). This places the seasonal total at a finishing value of 15 7 3.

(edited out comments on what changes might benefit forecasters for Nov-Dec as that bridge has been crossed) ...

The scoring table will continue to be tweaked as any new information becomes relevant. From Nov 15 to end of the year, the provisional scoring will change to season-to-date unless there are obvious signs of development. 

[Roger Smith]

(Nov 22 update)

With no amended forecasts  these are the final scores for each plausible Nov-Dec outcome. These totals would be based on your seasonal and current Nov-Dec forecasts, see table three posts back, which gives a provisional outcome for 1 0 0 only. As we move through the last two months of the year, any excluded outcomes based on actual events will be removed from this table and in the unlikely event that we reach 2 storms columns for 3 storms will appear. At the end of the contest only one column will be left and that will become the final scoring report (with seasonal and monthly components added at that point). The order is based on the current Nov-Dec count that has reached 1 1 0, as you'll see it moves around a bit for other outcomes left in play.

On Nov 22 I removed 0 0 0, 1 0 0, and 2 0 0 Nov-Dec outcomes from the table as these can no longer verify. If Otto becomes a major, I  can remove 1 1 0 and if not, I can remove 2 2 2 and 2 1 1 from consideration as the only possible increases would then be 2 1 0 or 2 2 1.

I have also added 3 1 0 now that we've dropped three outcomes. This would involve two more tropical storms.

(Nov 24 added comment) _ Otto came within 1 knot (95 kts) of being a major and I suppose there is some chance that a later reanalysis will give it that status. Therefore I will leave in this table any outcomes that reflect that possibility but for now, the first column of scoring below is where Otto has left things, and it matches the table with monthly scoring details three posts back.

Column 2 represents the scoring if Otto is given a major. 

Column 3 represents scoring if we get one more tropical storm.

Column 4 represents scoring if we get one more TS and Otto is given a major.

Column 5 represents scoring if we get one more storm that becomes a hurricane.

Coiumn 6 represents scoring if we get the hurricane and Otto is given a major, or the second one becomes a major, but not both.

Column 7 represents scoring if both Otto and the next hurricane are both majors.

Column 8 represents scoring if we get two more tropical storms (and no more hurricanes). 

(won't go into other permutations on 3 named storms yet, because chances are slim anyway).

 

Potential Scoring for various outcomes Nov-Dec

 

FORECASTER ________ 1 1 0 __ 1 1 1 __ 2 1 0 __ 2 1 1 __ 2 2 0__2 2 1__2 2 2__3 1 0

 

Ohiowx _____________ 92.0 ___89.5 ___90.5___88.0 ___88.5 ___ 86.5___83.5___ 87.5

Andyhb _____________ 91.5 ___90.0 ___ 90.0 ___88.5 ___87.0 ___ 86.0___84.0___ 87.0

wxmx ______________ 88.5 ___89.0 ___ 89.0 ___89.5___89.0___ 90.0___89.0___87.0

... NHC mid-range _____88.2 ___88.7 ___ 88.0 ___84.2 ___84.2 ___ 82.2___80.2___ 82.2

... Contest Normal ____ 88.0 ___86.5 ___ 88.0 ___87.0 ___89.0 ___ 88.0___86.0___ 87.0

RJay _______________ 86.5 ___85.0 ___ 86.5 ___85.5 ___88.5 ___ 87.5___85.5___ 85.5

Ginx SNEwx _________ 86.0 ___84.5 ___ 82.0 ___81.0 ___83.0 ___ 82.0___80.0___ 78.0

DopplerWx __________ 86.0 ___83.5 ___ 82.0 ___80.0 ___81.0 ___ 79.0___76.0___ 78.0

... Consensus ________ 85.0 ___83.5 ___ 85.5 ___84.0 ___86.5 ___ 85.5___83.5___ 83.5

OHweather __________ 83.5 ___82.0 ___ 81.5 ___80.5 ___82.5 ___ 81.5___79.5___ 79.5

Stebo _______________82.5 ___80.5 ___ 80.5 ___80.5 ___84.0 ___ 85.0___84.0___ 81.0

BKViking ____________ 82.0 ___80.5 ___ 82.5 ___81.0 ___83.5 ___ 82.5___80.5___ 80.5

DMillz25 ____________  81.5 ___80.0 ___ 83.0 ___81.5 ___83.0 ___ 82.0___80.0___ 83.0

NCForecaster89 ______  81.0 ___81.5 ___ 81.5 ___82.0 ___82.5 ___ 83.5___82.5___ 79.5

UThant _____________  79.5 ___81.0 ___ 80.0 ___81.5 ___81.5 ___ 83.5___83.5___ 78.0

Eduardo ____________  79.5 ___80.0 ___ 81.0 ___81.5 ___83.5 ___ 84.5___82.5___ 81.0

NWLinnCountyIA _____  78.0 ___76.5 ___ 79.5 ___78.0 ___80.5 ___ 79.5___77.5___ 79.5

Ksammut ___________  77.0 ___74.5 ___ 79.5 ___77.0 ___75.5 ___ 73.5___70.5___ 80.5

DonSutherland.1 _____  75.0 ___76.5 ___ 76.5 ___78.0 ___79.0 ___ 81.0___81.0___ 76.5

Metalicwx366 ________ 73.0 ___74.5 ___ 77.5 ___77.0 ___77.5 ___ 79.5 ___80.5___ 76.5

BTRwx _____________  68.5 ___67.0 ___ 64.0 ___58.5 ___59.5 ___ 56.5 ___52.5___ 54.5

Mallow ______________63.0 ___64.5 ___  67.5 ___67.0 ___68.5 ___70.5 ___71.5___ 66.5

Tom _______________  62.0 ___60.5 ___ 66.0 ___63.0 ___68.0 ___66.0 ___63.0___ 69.0

Roger Smith _________ 46.0 ___46.5 ___ 50.5 ___51.0 ___55.5 ___56.0 ___55.0 ___53.0

SouthMDwatcher _____  27.0 ___26.5 ___ 26.0 ___27.0 ___29.0 ___31.5 ___32.5 ___28.0

VARicWeather _______  19.5 ___ 20.0 ___ 19.5 ___19.5 ___19.0 ___18.5 ___18.5 ___19.5

 

 

[Roger Smith]

<<----- === FINAL Scoring for 2016 North Atlantic Tropical Storm and Hurricane contest === ----->>

cThe table starts with your seasonal forecast and scores out of 50. The entry (210) in brackets refers to the count pre-contest for January to May. This is otherwise not scored in the monthly portion that follows; the bold numbers immediately below the (210)  are scores for your seasonal forecast out of 50. From there on, the numbers in black are your forecasts and the numbers in red are your scores (see actual count for maximum possible scores in each case). Then follows the total Contest score followed by your monthly scoring totals in brackets. Those plus the seasonal scores should add up to the Contest score as shown. Scores are now ranked, otherwise this table is currently identical to the one posted and edited back in the thread.

 

FORECASTER _ Season _ Jan-May_June __July __ Aug __ Sept __Oct __Nov-Dec ___ 

___ Actual count __15 7 3_(210) _200 4.0 _000 6.0 _43112 _51116 _ 11110 __ 110 2.0

________________________ 50 ______________________________________________ SCORE (months)

 

 1 OhioWx ______ 15 7 2 __49 _110 3.0 _100 5.5 _320 9 _52115_2119_1001.5___92.0 _  ( 43)

 2 Andyhb _______15 6 3 __49 _100 3.5 _200 4.5 _32110 _42114_2119_1001.5___91.5_(42,5)

 

 3 *NHC mid-range_14 7 2.5_48.6_100 3.5_100 5.5_32110431.511.621081001.5___88.7 (40.1)

 

 3 wxmx _________16 8 4 __47 _200 4.0 _110 5.0 _32110 _53212_2119_1001.5___88.5_(41.5)

 

 4 Contest Normal _16 8 3 __48 _100 3.5 _100 5.5 _42111_53113_3216 _0001.0___88.0 _ (40)

 

 4 Rjay __________ 16 9 3 __46 _100 3.5 _210 4.0 _43112 _53212_2108_0001.0___86.5 _(40.5)

 5 Dopplerwx _____ 13 7 2 __46 _000 2.5 _100 5.5 _42111 _43112_2108 _0001.0___86.0 _ (40)

 5 Ginx SNEwx ____13 8 3 __46 _100 3.5 _100 5.5 _32110 _43112_2218 _0001.0___86.0 _ (40)

 

 7 Consensus _____16 9 3 __46 _100 3.5 _210 4.0 _43112 _53212_3106 _1001.5___85.0 _ ( 39)

 

 7 OHweather ____ 15 8 3 __49 _100 3.5 _110 5.0 _211 6 _53113_3216 _0001.0___83.5 _ (34,5)

 8 Stebo _________16 9 4 __45 _100 3.5 _211 3.5 _32110 _43112_3117_1001.5___82.5 _ (37.5)

 9 BKViking ______16 9 3 __46 _100 3.5 _210 4.0 _32110 _542 9 _2108_1001.5___82.0 _ (36)

10 Dmillz25 _______17 8 3 __46 _200 4.0 _311 2.0 _320 9 _43211_2108_1001.5___81.5 _ (35.5)

 

11 NCforecaster89 _ 16 9 4 __45 _100 3.5 _210 4.0 _32110_43211_3216_1001.5___81.0 _ (36)

12 Eduardo _______ 17 10 4__40 _100 3.5_110 5.0 _42111 _53212_3216_1102.0___79.5 _(39.5)

12 U Thant ________16 9 5 __43 _100 3.5 _110 5.0 _32110 _53310_3106_1102.0___79.5 _(36.5)

14 NWLinnCountyIA_17 9 3 __44 _100 3.5 _110 5.0 _32110 _53212_4202_1001.5___78.0 _ (34)

15 ksammut _______18 5 2 __40 _200 4.0 _310 2.5 _310 7 _ 41115_3117_1001.5___77.0 _ (37)

16 DonSutherland.1_ 17 10 5__38 _110 3.0 _000 6.0 _42111 _633 9_3216_1102.0___75.0 _ (37)

17 metalicwx366 ___ 18 10 5__35 _100 3.5 _210 4.0 _43211 _53212_3216_1001.5___73.0 _ (38)

18 BTRWx ________10 . 6 1 __31 _100 3.5 _210 4.0 _43112 _210 9_1008 _0001.0___68.5 _(37.5)

 

19 Mallow _________18 11 5 __31 _100 3.5 _110 5.0 _43112 _543 7_4213_1001.5___ 63.0 _ (32)

20 Tom ___________ 20 10 2 _ 28 _210 3.5 _320 1.5 _520 9 _53212_3106_0001.0___61.0 _ (33)

21 Roger Smith _____19 13 4 _ 18 _110 3.0 _210 4.0 _42111 _552 5_3314_2001.0___46.0 _ (28)

22 SouthMDwatcher _22 14 6 __ 0 _210 3.5 _210 4.0 _43112 _643 6_4320_2101.5___27.0 _ (27)

23 varicweather _____27 11 4__ 0 _100 3.5 _210 4.0 _621 8_1052 0_4213_2001.0___19.5 _ (19.5)

_____________________________________________________________________

*NHC mid-range was given monthly forecasts scaled from contest normal that added up to the total but that portion might have varied if the forecasters had been asked to provide them. Your ranking is not affected by that entry or by Contest Normal and Consensus.

Monthly portion == Highest scores/50 ... totals 

Ohiowx 43.0 Andyhb 42.5, wxmx 41.5, Rjay 40.5,

NHC 40.1, Contest Normal 40.0; Ginx 40.0, Dopplerwx 40.0, 

Eduardo 39.5; Consensus 39.0,;

Metalicwx366 38.0; Stebo 37.5, BTRwx 37.5

Ksammut 37.0, DonSutherland.1 37.0

UThant 36.5; NCForecaster89 36.0, BKViking 36.0.

 

JAN 4, 2017 >> TABLE DECLARED OFFICIAL SCORING SUMMARY (pending any updates from NHC that would alter the counts)

_______________________________________________________________________________

[Roger Smith]

Alternate scoring table

The previous post should be considered the official contest scoring. This table shows scores based on the month when systems reached categories. The only detail that changes in that paradigm is that storm 8 (Hermine) becomes a hurricane in September rather than August as per contest rules. Refer to the previous post for any explanations of the scoring. The only columns that change in this table are scoring for Aug, Sept and total score with monthly subtotal in brackets. That changes the order of the listing below this table for monthly portion. Only one forecaster would lose points to this alternate method, most would gain 3, some would gain 1. The most common change was to add one point to August and two points to September as 2 canes vs a forecast of 3 would add 2 points. The scoring order is almost the same. Rjay drops down a bit and there is some minor shuffling of the pack but the same top three emerge. This table could be updated if the main scoring table is updated (for Nov-Dec added activity or any announced changes such as Otto being a major, Karl being a hurricane, etc).

 

FORECASTER _ Season _ Jan-May_June __July __ Aug __ Sept __Oct __Nov-Dec ___ 

___ Actual count __15 7 3_(210) _200 4.0 _000 6.0 _42112 _52116 _ 11110 __ 110

_________ based on 15 7 3 _ 50 ______________________________________ 1102__ SCORE (months)

 

 1 OhioWx ______ 15 7 2 __49 _110 3.0 _100 5.5 _32010 _52116_2119_1001.5___94.0 _  (45)

 2 Andyhb _______15 6 3 __49 _100 3.5 _200 4.5 _32111 _42115_2119_1001.5___93.5_(44,5)

 

 3 *NHC mid-range_14 7 2.5_48.6_100 3.5_100 5.5_32111431.513.621081001.5___91.7 (43.1)

 

 3 wxmx _________16 8 4 __47 _200 4.0 _110 5.0 _32111 _53214_2119_1001.5___91.5_(44.5)

 

 4 Contest Normal _16 8 3 __48 _100 3.5 _100 5.5 _42112_53115_3216 _0001.0___91.0 _ (43)

 

 4 Dopplerwx _____ 13 7 2 __46 _000 2.5 _100 5.5 _42112 _43114_2108 _0001.0___89.0 _ (43)

 5 Ginx SNEwx ____13 8 3 __46 _100 3.5 _100 5.5 _32111 _43114_2218 _0001.0___89.0 _ (43)

 6 Rjay __________ 16 9 3 __46 _100 3.5 _210 4.0 _43111 _53214_2108_0001.0___87.5 _(41.5)

 6 OHweather ____ 15 8 3 __49 _100 3.5 _110 5.0 _211 8 _53115_3216 _0001.0___87.5 _ (38,5)

 

 8 Consensus _____16 9 3 __46 _100 3.5 _210 4.0 _43111 _53214_3106 _1001.5___86.0 _ (40)

 

 8 BKViking ______16 9 3 __46 _100 3.5 _210 4.0 _32111 _54212 _2108_1001.5___86.0 _ (40)

 9 Stebo _________16 9 4 __45 _100 3.5 _211 3.5 _32111 _43114_3117_1001.5___85.5 _ (40.5)

10 Dmillz25 ______ 17 8 3 __46 _200 4.0 _311 2.0 _32010 _43213_2108_1001.5___84.5 _ (38.5)

 

11 NCforecaster89 _ 16 9 4 __45 _100 3.5 _210 4.0 _32111_43213_3216_1001.5___84.0 _ (39)

12 Eduardo _______ 17 10 4__40 _100 3.5_110 5.0 _42112 _53214_3216_1102.0___82.5 _(42.5)

12 U Thant ________16 9 5 __43 _100 3.5 _110 5.0 _32111 _53312_3106_1102.0___82.5 _(39.5)

14 NWLinnCountyIA_17 9 3 __44 _100 3.5 _110 5.0 _32111 _53214_4202_1001.5___81.0 _ (37)

15 ksammut _______18 5 2 __40 _200 4.0 _310 2.5 _310 9 _ 41114_3117_1001.5___78.0 _ (38)

15 DonSutherland.1_ 17 10 5__38 _110 3.0 _000 6.0 _42112 _63311_3216_1102.0___78.0 _ (40)

17 metalicwx366 ___ 18 10 5__35 _100 3.5 _210 4.0 _43210 _53214_3216_1001.5___74.0 _ (39)

18 BTRWx ________10 . 6 1 __31 _100 3.5 _210 4.0 _43111 _210 8_1008 _0001.0___66.5 _(35.5)

19 Mallow _________18 11 5 __31 _100 3.5 _110 5.0 _43111 _54310_4213_1001.5___ 65.0 _ (34)

20 Tom ___________ 20 10 2 _ 28 _210 3.5 _320 1.5 _52010 _53214_3106_0001.0___64.0 _ (36)

21 Roger Smith _____19 13 4 _ 18 _110 3.0 _210 4.0 _42112 _552 9_3314_2001.0___51.0 _ (33)

22 SouthMDwatcher _22 14 6 __ 0 _210 3.5 _210 4.0 _43111 _643 9_4320_2101.5___29.0 _ (29)

23 varicweather _____27 11 4__ 0 _100 3.5 _210 4.0 _621 9_1052 0_4213_2001.0___20.5 _ (20.5)

_____________________________________________________________________

*NHC mid-range was given monthly forecasts scaled from contest normal that added up to the total but that portion might have varied if the forecasters had been asked to provide them. Your ranking is not affected by that entry or by Contest Normal and Consensus.

Monthly portion == Highest scores/50 ... totals ( > consensus 39.0)

Ohiowx 45.0 Andyhb 44.5, wxmx 44.5, ...

NHC 43.1, Contest Normal 43.0; Ginx 43.0, Dopplerwx 43.0, ...

Eduardo 42.5; Rjay 41.5, Stebo 40.5, ...

DonSutherland.1 40.0, BKViking 40.0, Consensus 40.0,; ...

UThant 39.5; NCForecaster89 39.0, Metalicwx366 39.0; DMillz25 38.5, OHweather 38.5 ...

Ksammut 38.0, NWLinnCountyIA 37, Tom 36, BTRwx 35.5

[Roger Smith]

The results of the contest as posted two posts back are now confirmed. 

The table in the post immediately before this one shows the results if contest rules awarded storms to months when their intensity levels first appeared. This would have changed the count for one storm (Hermine) which became a hurricane on September 1st. The contest rules awarded that to August. So this changed the alternate counts for August and September which exchanged one hurricane. 

Either way, the same three forecasters come out at the top of the scoring. 

Congratulations to Ohiowx, Andyhb, and wxmx for their top three performances.

The best seasonal forecasts (for 15 7 3) were from the top two, Ohiowx (15 7 2) and Andyhb (15 6 3), as well as OHweather (15 8 3) who finished 7th overall. These all scored 49/50. Several others had scores above 45, well done. 

The top monthly forecasts (all issued in advance of the season, only one forecaster took the opportunity to revise any) came from the top three in the contest overall, Ohiowx had 43/50, Andyhb had 42.5 and wxmx had 41,5 ... each of them finished in the same order in the alternate method and had the three highest monthly forecast scores there as well, each of them 2 or 3 points higher. In fact, most of the field would score higher on the alternate method because of the way September turned out with just one other hurricane out of the five named storms. The alternate method does not fully go down the path of assigning storms to months, since you could argue that Hermine should be a named storm in September and Matthew various counts in October. Anyway, we have to choose one method and the all-in-the-first-named month method is what was used in this contest before I started scoring it in 2012. 

Hope everyone enjoyed the contest and look for the 2017 version to appear in May. Let's hope we don't have an Alex or May (was it Bonnie?) storm event to complicate matters, it would be great to have the contest open before the season starts.

Roger over and out.