Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

May 7-14 Severe Possibilities


Recommended Posts

possible tornado on the ground

--

AT 515 PM CDT/615 PM EDT/...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
  PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER OWENSVILLE...OR NEAR FORT
  BRANCH...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. INDIANA STATE POLICE IS RELAYING
  REPORTS OF A TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR OWENSVILLE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 151
  • Created
  • Last Reply

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
645 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
NORTHERN SALINE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...  
EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...  
 
* UNTIL 730 PM CDT  
 
* AT 643 PM CDT...SPOTTERS REPORT A TREMENDOUS WALL CLOUD NEAR  
JOHNSTON CITY. AND SPOTTERS RECENTLY REPORTED A CONFIRMED TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED NEAR ORIENT.... MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
GALATIA AROUND 700 PM CDT.  
ELDORADO AROUND 710 PM CDT.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

* AT 643 PM CDT...SPOTTERS REPORT A TREMENDOUS WALL CLOUD NEAR  

JOHNSTON CITY. AND SPOTTERS RECENTLY REPORTED A CONFIRMED TORNADO  

WAS LOCATED NEAR ORIENT.... MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

 

What the heck is this garbage? Reminding me of that "rain shaft violent wedge" a couple of years ago in the same CWA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What the heck is this garbage? Reminding me of that "rain shaft violent wedge" a couple of years ago in the same CWA.

 

Just noticed that when I checked up on what's happening minutes ago, never seen that phrase in a warning used before. Is it "TREMENDOUS"? I know a certain politician who uses that word a good deal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What the heck is this garbage? Reminding me of that "rain shaft violent wedge" a couple of years ago in the same CWA.

People might not take shelter if the wall cloud isn't tremendous looking hahaha?

CINH is only at the surface as the ML is good so it's not a totally bad environment and current mesoanalysis shows those cells entering an area of higher SRH

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just noticed that when I checked up on what's happening minutes ago, never seen that phrase in a warning used before. Is it "TREMENDOUS"? I know a certain politician who uses that word a good deal.

It was a really, really great wall cloud. Just the best. When I am president we will only have the finest wall clouds and Mexico will pay for them.

Donald Trump on Wednesdays severe weather outbreak.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO  
822 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016  
 
MOC055-071-221-120145-  
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160512T0145Z/  
FRANKLIN MO-CRAWFORD MO-WASHINGTON MO-  
822 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016  
 
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR SOUTH  
CENTRAL FRANKLIN...NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD AND NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON  
COUNTIES...  
 
AT 822 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BOURBON...MOVING  
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  
LIKELY.  
 
THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
SULLIVAN AROUND 835 PM CDT.  
MIRAMIGUOA PARK AROUND 845 PM CDT.  
 
THIS ALSO INCLUDES MERAMEC STATE PARK.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have a question, Does 'radar confirmed tornado" mean TOG?

I assume they are seeing debris when they say that?

Also when there is a confirmed tornado in a town why do the warnings say A confirmed tornado OVER the town implying it is aloft and therefore a funnel cloud

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have a question, Does 'radar confirmed tornado" mean TOG?

Essentially. With the implementation of dual-pol radars, tornados can be pretty much confirmed to be going on without actually having eyes on it by looking for certain debris signatures (i.e. Lowered correlation coefficient co-located with a velocity couplet)
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ran up the river to east of Clinton/Fulton to check out the slow moving sup moving in from Iowa.  RFD knifed in several times, and a few times got the wall cloud spinning pretty nicely.  Actually thought it may produce at one point.  Nice downward motion in the cut.  Storm even had a little inflow into it.  Followed it to near Morrison before it proceeded to crap the bed.

 

Short time lapse between Fulton and Morrison...

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not too enthused about today and I'm not sure what Hillsdale is looking at. The GFS and NAM look quite average, not nearly as promising as earlier. I'm not too big of a fan of noon time severe chances, hard to get instability and shear in the warm sector that's worth a damn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This morning's Day 2 has a Slight from E KS, N MO, SE IA, and W/C IL for Friday:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

 

...NERN KS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...

 

   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED IN THIS REGION WITH DEWPOINTS

   GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S F. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF

   COLDER AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING SEWD-ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL

   SPREAD SEWD ABOVE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP

   SFC-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND 400-800 J/KG MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD

   DEVELOP ALONG SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND

   STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN 40-45 KT EFFECTIVE

   SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS...COLD AIR

   ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG

   TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND

   EARLY EVENING.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This morning's first Day 1:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

 ...EASTERN KS TO MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...   A SURFACE LOW LOCATED ALONG THE PLAINS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO   ADVANCE SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NEB TO NORTHERN MO BY MID-LATE   AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK EAST THROUGH CENTRAL IL TO NORTHERN   INDIANA.  ALTHOUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY   INITIALLY...A NARROW PLUME OF RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT   WILL RESULT IN SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S REACHING EASTERN KS   TO WEST-CENTRAL IL.  SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH THIS MOISTURE   RETURN BENEATH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF AN EML /STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE   RATES/ SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  DESPITE MODEST   INSTABILITY...STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR   SUGGEST STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIKELY AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS   ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  THE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE AND INVERTED-V   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL RESULT IN DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING   THE PRIMARY THREATS.  HOWEVER...A 40-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL   JET DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN KS TO WESTERN IL SUGGESTS   A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY DURING THE EARLY   EVENING PRIOR TO WEAKENING CONVECTION.  DURING THAT TIME FRAME...THE   BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN WHILE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH   CURVATURE INCREASES.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...