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May 7-14 Severe Possibilities


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Didn't post it earlier since it was pretty unimpressive in comparison to the stuff going on down in Kentucky, but did manage to see a really brief tiny funnel cloud in a storm that passed to the north of me here in central Ohio. Heard reports of some strong wind gusts in Newark, but not much else. Caught me off guard or I would have tried to get a pic of it. 

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New day 1 says there is uncertainty for higher probs for IA/IL so slight for now.

 

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0103 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2016


   ...IA INTO IL DURING THE AFTERNOON...
   SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO BE LOCALLY ENHANCED NEAR SFC LOW AS
   IT MOVES ACROSS IA. SOME HEATING IS EXPECTED WITH MID 60S F
   DEWPOINTS...AND WIND PROFILES WILL BE VEERING WITH HEIGHT. THIS MAY
   RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO
   FORECAST SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION ACROSS ERN KS INTO NWRN MO TUE NIGHT
   INTO WED MORNING...AND THIS MAY AFFECT THE SFC LOW TRACK AS WELL AS
   INSTABILITY.  THE NAM SHOWS THE LOW OVER IA WITH AND THE GFS OVER
   NRN MO BY 00Z THE 12TH. CONDITIONALLY...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE
   POSSIBLE WITH ATTENDANT HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADO THREAT...BUT
   UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH AT THIS TIME FOR GREATER SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES.

 

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Day 2 Slight for Eastern Michigan, Northern Ohio.

Most of Ohio actually.

 

 

 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

   1232 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR NE TX NEWD INTO ERN

   LWR MI...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK

   FROM SW TX NEWD INTO LWR MI...

   ...SUMMARY...

   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TEXAS THROUGH

   THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES

   REGIONS ON THURSDAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER LOW MOVING

   SLOWLY FROM CNTRL/SRN MANITOBA EWD INTO WRN ONTARIO. LEAD SHORTWAVE

   IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY

   AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY ANOTHER SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE

   OVERNIGHT THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...OCCLUDED FRONT

   WILL EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER MANITOBA TO ANOTHER LOW

   INITIALLY OVER ERN WI. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE ERN WI LOW

   SWD ACROSS ERN IL AND THEN SWWD INTO FAR W TX. THIS COLD FRONT WILL

   MOVE SEWD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...PROGRESSING THROUGH WRN PORTIONS OF

   THE OH AND TN VALLEYS BY 00Z FRIDAY. SRN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL

   MAKE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SEWD PROGRESS...LIKELY REACHING THE TX COAST BY

   12Z FRIDAY.

   ...UPPER GREAT LAKES...

   SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONTAL

   ZONE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE

   PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING QUICKLY AHEAD OF THIS

   LINE...LEADING TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF

   SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...A SVR THREAT IS POSSIBLE

   ACROSS LWR MI DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

   UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE RETURN

   AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS

   WRN PORTIONS OF LWR MI...BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT

   DEWPOINTS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF LWR MI WILL BE IN THE LOW

   60S. AS A RESULT...THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ERN LWR MI APPEARS

   FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SVR STORMS AND A SLIGHT RISK WAS INTRODUCED OVER

   THE AREA.

   ...OH/TN VALLEYS...

   EARLY PERIOD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE WAA REGIME

   SURROUNDING THE OH RIVER. LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS EARLY

   CONVECTION -- AS WELL AS ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES THAT RESULT --

   WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN DETERMINING THE SVR THREAT DURING THE

   DAY. MULTIPLE BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON

   WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE COLD

   FRONT. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXTENT OF THE

   CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLY MORNING STORMS BUT THE AIRMASS

   SHOULD QUICKLY DESTABILIZE UNDER FILTERED SUNSHINE GIVEN THE

   PRESENCE OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS. MUCH OF THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE

   SRN PERIPHERY OF THE BETTER FLOW ALOFT BUT ENOUGH FLOW WILL EXIST

   FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING

   WIND GUSTS. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT HAS BEEN INTRODUCED ACROSS

   PORTIONS OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS.

  

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
150 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1257 PM HAIL 1 WNW COTTLEVILLE 38.76N 90.66W
05/11/2016 M4.00 INCH ST. CHARLES MO NWS EMPLOYEE

MEASURED HAIL STONE...4 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO  
302 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
MARION COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
 
* UNTIL 345 PM CDT  
 
* AT 302 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOULDER...  
MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.  
 
THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.  
 
HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. EXPECT  
CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES.  
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
CENTRALIA...SALEM...VANDALIA...ST. ELMO...SANDOVAL...WAMAC...CENTRAL  
CITY...ODIN...KINMUNDY...BROWNSTOWN...PATOKA...FARINA...OMEGA...STEPHEN  
FORBES STATION...FAIRMAN...HELM...SHOBONIER...AVENA...TONTI AND LA  
CLEDE.  
 
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...  
INTERSTATE 70 IN ILLINOIS BETWEEN EXITS 63 AND 76.  
INTERSTATE 57 IN ILLINOIS BETWEEN EXITS 109 AND 135.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH TORNADO LIKE WIND  
SPEEDS EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE  
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE  
OVERTURNED. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE  
LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE  
SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE.  
 
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING  
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. SEEK SHELTER NOW  
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!  
 

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WFUS53 KILX 112131  
TORILX  
ILC035-049-079-112200-  
/O.NEW.KILX.TO.W.0016.160511T2131Z-160511T2200Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
431 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
NORTHERN EFFINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
WESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...  
 
* UNTIL 500 PM CDT  
 
* AT 430 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH  
TORNADOES AND EXTENSIVE STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WERE LOCATED NEAR  
EFFINGHAM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
EFFINGHAM...NEOGA...TEUTOPOLIS...WATSON...JEWETT...SHUMWAY...MONTROSE...  
WOODBURY...HEARTVILLE...EFFINGHAM COUNTY AIRPORT AND LAKE SARA.  
 

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTH CENTRAL WABASH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...

SOUTHWESTERN GIBSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 435 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO

WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF OWENSVILLE...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF

MOUNT CARMEL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. A WALL CLOUD WAS SEEN WITH

THIS STORM...LOOKING NORTH FROM GRIFFIN.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT

SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE

DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...

OWENSVILLE AROUND 500 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE

KEENSBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST

FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A

MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER

AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3838 8762 3822 8760 3822 8780 3823 8780

3823 8793 3838 8790

TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 286DEG 16KT 3827 8782

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED

HAIL...1.00IN

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We are so far fortunate that bulk shear and helicity are not all that strong with the MCS storms.  Higher parameters are found to the nw in IL and MO behind the convective mass entering IN per SPC meso page

 

Would think storms start going up there too, mesoanalysis shows a region of upper divergence and also enhanced low level moisture convergence over that area with backed winds showing up in obs near the river.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
458 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
NORTHEASTERN WHITE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
NORTHERN POSEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 530 PM CDT  
 
* AT 457 PM CDT...A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR  
GRAYVILLE...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALBION...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
POSEYVILLE AROUND 520 PM CDT.  
CYNTHIANA AROUND 530 PM CDT.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
PHILLIPSTOWN AND GRIFFIN.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A  
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY  
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR IN  
A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 

 
 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
502 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN WABASH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
SOUTHEASTERN EDWARDS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...  
SOUTHERN GIBSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 530 PM CDT  
 
* AT 501 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
WAS LOCATED NEAR OWENSVILLE...OR 11 MILES WEST OF FORT BRANCH...  
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. A TORNADO WAS REPORTED NEAR BURNT  
PRAIRIE...TAKE COVER NOW!  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
OWENSVILLE AROUND 515 PM CDT.  
FORT BRANCH AROUND 530 PM CDT.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
KEENSBURG AND BELLMONT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF 

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY  
513 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016  
 
ILC047-185-INC051-112230-  
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0061.000000T0000Z-160511T2230Z/  
WABASH IL-EDWARDS IL-GIBSON IN-  
513 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016  
 
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR  
SOUTHWESTERN WABASH...SOUTHEASTERN EDWARDS AND SOUTHERN GIBSON  
COUNTIES...  
 
AT 512 PM CDT...INDIANA STATE POLICE REPORTS A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS  
LOCATED OVER OWENSVILLE...OR 8 MILES WEST OF FORT BRANCH...MOVING  
EAST AT 20 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  
LIKELY.  
 
THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
FORT BRANCH AROUND 530 PM CDT.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
KEENSBURG AND BELLMONT.  

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