jojo762 Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 People? SPC didn't really play it up that much. It was the TV folks that played it up. SPC was maybe a tiny bit overhyped but the blame really lies with a few TV folks IMO. Anyway, lets not sidetrack this thread, sorry I brought it up They played it up a ton... They mentioned a high-risk being possible in the 06Z D2, the only reasoning in the 06Z D2 outlook for not going High Risk was coverage concerns along the dryline... not the low-level wind field, and not the VBV sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 People? SPC didn't really play it up that much. It was the TV folks that played it up. SPC was maybe a tiny bit overhyped but the blame really lies with a few TV folks IMO. Anyway, lets not sidetrack this thread, sorry I brought it up Local met mentioned that he didn't think a PDS watch was needed, however he mentioned Jarrell TX being one of the reasons why the PDS watched was issued. I'm not an expert on this subject, but I believe it had something to do with the way the setup/parameters from Jarrell and Tuesdays event had similarities to one another to warrant a PDS watch. (Gravity waves ect) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2016 Author Share Posted May 7, 2016 Local met mentioned that he didn't think a PDS watch was needed, however he mentioned Jarrell TX being one of the reasons why the PDS watched was issued. I'm not an expert on this subject, but I believe it had something to do with the way the setup/parameters from Jarrell and Tuesdays event had similarities to one another to warrant a PDS watch. (Gravity waves ect) To count on that type of event occurring though to issue a PDS watch is foolhardy. Probabilities that high (90/80) are usually only issued when there is high confidence of a pretty substantial tornado outbreak with several significant tornadoes taking place across all of or some part of a watch area. The Jarrell-type event is not one that anyone in the severe weather enterprise can forecast with that high confidence before it's basically already happening (and I can say that with confidence). To add on to that, aside from the high instability (which still certainly wasn't as high as the Jarrell day), that setup really didn't look much like 5/27/1997 either (synoptically or on the mesoscale). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2016 Author Share Posted May 7, 2016 00z BRO sounding isn't looking too promising as far as moisture goes with only a 60 degree dewpoint (and very little deep layer moisture). Going to have to be a quick turn-around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 00z BRO sounding isn't looking too promising as far as moisture goes with only a 60 degree dewpoint (and very little deep layer moisture). Going to have to be a quick turn-around. Agreed... Was just thinking this. If there is any positives to it, it is that the depth of low-level moisture is much better than it was at 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2016 Author Share Posted May 7, 2016 There definitely was mixing during the day there, so that's why you have the deeper moist layer and lower sfc Td. GFS seems to be doing alright with the moist tongue in the western Gulf, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 To count on that type of event occurring though to issue a PDS watch is foolhardy. Probabilities that high (90/80) are usually only issued when there is high confidence of a pretty substantial tornado outbreak with several significant tornadoes taking place across all of or some part of a watch area. The Jarrell-type event is not one that anyone in the severe weather enterprise can forecast with that high confidence before it's basically already happening (and I can say that with confidence). To add on to that, aside from the high instability (which still certainly wasn't as high as the Jarrell day), that setup really didn't look much like 5/27/1997 either (synoptically or on the mesoscale). Think the SPC was worried more about the Gravity waves across west Texas early in the day. I believe when the met referred to Jarrell he was looking more so at the gravity waves and the potential they had. Apparently gravity waves potentially played a role on 5/27/1997 Jarell tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 We are already seeing 50s aND 60s dewpoints along the Gulf. Sure we'd normally like to see 60s creeping up to ok by now, but we were never anticipating upper 60s and 70s widespread so this should cone as a surprise to no one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveIA Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 Really liking Sunday/Monday (depending on timing) and possibly even both... Likely will see southwesterly flow aloft at H5, atop a moist and moderately unstable environment. VBV may be an issue, but not going to be focused on specifics like that yet. LLVL wind fields look like they'll be good for the most part. Lots will change. Would be nice if if IA could get in on some severe WX on Sunday night/Monday but right now it looks like it will stay just to the southwest and west of us but at least some mature storms should occur here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 00z NAM along and east of the dryline in OK is pretty great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 lol, NAM doubles down with even better moisture for Sunday. I think there's some merit to the concerns expressed about sfc obs and soundings from today, and I doubt we actually see 65 F dew points along the dryline in any widespread fashion, but I don't think it's going to be as dire as some suggest. If we primarily see 61-63 F in W OK, then LCLs will probably be too borderline for a widespread/significant tornado threat before 00-01z, but there will be the customary window around sunset and the potential for one or two tornadoes with higher LCLs beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2016 Author Share Posted May 7, 2016 lol, NAM doubles down with even better moisture for Sunday. I think there's some merit to the concerns expressed about sfc obs and soundings from today, and I doubt we actually see 65 F dew points along the dryline in any widespread fashion, but I don't think it's going to be as dire as some suggest. If we primarily see 61-63 F in W OK, then LCLs will probably be too borderline for a widespread/significant tornado threat before 00-01z, but there will be the customary window around sunset and the potential for one or two tornadoes with higher LCLs beforehand. The NAM soundings are pretty insane in E TX on Monday as well (when there surely will be moisture). Great curvature in the lowest 3 km with strong speed shear above it leading to a very long hodograph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 The NAM soundings are pretty insane in E TX on Monday as well (when there surely will be moisture). Dang... I'd say so, completely uncapped... NAM also develops isolated convection in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2016 Author Share Posted May 7, 2016 As I think I mentioned earlier, this same type of secondary shortwave evolution like what is shown on Monday happened several times in 2013, and it didn't end well in a couple of cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 Dang... I'd say so, completely uncapped... NAM also develops isolated convection in this region. No cap, but I'm wondering if the Sundays over-night/early morning storms will come into play somewhat. (could also be a focus for boundary initiation.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 00Z GFS is further east with the dryline than the NAM/4NAM... But just as potent. It would keep the threat closer to the I-35 corridor between Wichita and the Red-River. GFS shows a significant dryline bulge in C OK at 00Z, and much like the NAM shows pretty good moisture with widespread DPs of 63-66. Instability is not ultra impressive, but still more than workable given the wind-profile. VBV is subtle, and is above 500mb, so it probably is not much of an issue. The sounding below is pretty representative of the environment along much of the DL from KICT to the TX/OK border at 7pm Sunday.Despite that it does not necessarily matter whatsoever, curious with what the SPC will say/do with the upcoming 06Z D2 outlook given the multi-model agreement about the environment along and east of the dryline-- wherever the dryline ends up being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 The GFS is without any doubt too far E with the dryline, as usual. It's just a matter of how much. Given the biases we observed last week, particularly Tue, I'm inclined to think the dryline ends up in the eastern TX PH at the time of initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 The GFS is without any doubt too far E with the dryline, as usual. It's just a matter of how much. Given the biases we observed last week, particularly Tue, I'm inclined to think the dryline ends up in the eastern TX PH at the time of initiation. certainly too far east nut it will not be that far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2016 Author Share Posted May 7, 2016 Yeah I was thinking somewhere in the ELK/CLK vicinity might be a nice medium between the different models. The 00z NAM sped up a bit (as expected) and this is fairly progressive upper low by the time Sunday rolls around as it ejects out of the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 People get easily stuck on the 5000 CAPE days in Oklahoma. Anything over like 1500 is gravy. CAPE 1500-2000 will not be a limiting factor as far as tornado potential goes. Last Tuesday there were several people that only cared about the huge CAPE and claimed it would "solve" all other issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 It would be nice if we could iron out that issue above 500mb, but that isn't going to happen. Things still look good as long as moisture comes north to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 Yeah I was thinking somewhere in the ELK/CLK vicinity might be a nice medium between the different models. The 00z NAM sped up a bit (as expected) and this is fairly progressive upper low by the time Sunday rolls around as it ejects out of the SW. Could very well be around Elk City. Even if it sets up more how I'm thinking in the eastern row of PH counties, the threat for mature supercells and tornadoes would be maximized in that Arnett-Hollis-Frederick-Seiling corridor, regardless. People get easily stuck on the 5000 CAPE days in Oklahoma. Anything over like 1500 is gravy. CAPE 1500-2000 will not be a limiting factor as far as tornado potential goes. Last Tuesday there were several people that only cared about the huge CAPE and claimed it would "solve" all other issues. Yep. More CAPE is always helpful, and to some degree it can help compensate for borderline/weak shear (which is different than bad shear, like last Tuesday). But 2000 J/kg SBCAPE with good hodographs is all you really need, even on the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 At the very end of the run, so take it for whatever you want... But both the WRF-NMMB and WRF-ARW show a pretty significant long-track UH track from SW OK into C OK on sunday, ironically over the exact same areas. WRF-NMMB: WRF-ARW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 The I-44 corridor (and extrapolating it SW from where it changes direction near Medicine Park, back to Tipton) is definitely one of OK's favorites. On any given severe wx day in western and central OK, chances are good that region gets something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND AS FAR NORTH AS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS INCLUDES THE RISK FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ..SYNOPSIS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC...MODELS INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OR REDEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS MAY OCCUR BOTH IN RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUING PROGRESSION OF A NUMBER OF SMALLER-SCALE PERTURBATION AROUND ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY...AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS NORTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE FORECAST TO DIG TOWARD THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS MODELS INDICATE THAT A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLOWLY MIGRATING INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE SUBSTANTIVE MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY INITIALLY BE FAIRLY MODEST...BUT PROBABLY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID 60S. BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING SPREADING EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE...FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER DEEP CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO EVOLVE WITHIN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES...NEAR AND NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...TENNESSEE/LOWER OHIO/MID MISSISSIPPI AND MID MISSOURI VALLEYS BY 12Z SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN/SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...AS SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. DESTABILIZATION NEAR THIS FRONT COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SOME RISK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS STILL APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE AT THE PRESENT TIME. ..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FEATURES...PARTICULARLY AT SMALLER SCALES...THAT MODELS PROBABLY STILL DO NOT HAVE A PARTICULARLY GOOD HANDLE ON. AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING...OR DEVELOP EARLY...ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. HOWEVER...APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUSED ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE...PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING SOUTHEAST COLORADO SURFACE LOW...THE DRYLINE MAY REMAIN STALLED...OR PERHAPS RETREAT A BIT...ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA/KANSAS...INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE FIRST OF AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SMALLER IMPULSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION BY THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME. THIS MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A BROADLY CYCLONIC/SOUTHWESTERLY 50-70 KT MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. AS A SOUTHERLY JET AT 850 MB STRENGTHENS TO 50+ KT INTO AND THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING...THE INITIATION OF NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY PERSIST IN THE PRESENCE OF WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THIS SAME REGION OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. AS SURFACE DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AT LEAST A BIT FURTHER...INCREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING TORNADIC POTENTIAL...PERHAPS INCLUDING ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO THE CONTINUING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TEND TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN THE PRESENCE OF WANING OR WEAKER INSTABILITY. ..KERR.. 05/07/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 Should I drive east on hwy 14 or US-34 and hope I can see a tornado? Will the convective mode change to a squall line of all hail, everywhere, all the time? If I drive into a hailstorm, then my car gets dented. And I don't like that. I think that things may change so quickly that I would end up with hail dents. And there's a reasonable chance the hail could be tracking toward my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2016 Author Share Posted May 7, 2016 Should I drive east on hwy 14 or US-34 and hope I can see a tornado? Will the convective mode change to a squall line of all hail, everywhere, all the time? If I drive into a hailstorm, then my car gets dented. And I don't like that. I think that things may change so quickly that I would end up with hail dents. And there's a reasonable chance the hail could be tracking toward my house. I don't see why not, you're pretty close by and you'll probably see some great structure if no tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 Should I drive east on hwy 14 or US-34 and hope I can see a tornado? Will the convective mode change to a squall line of all hail, everywhere, all the time? If I drive into a hailstorm, then my car gets dented. And I don't like that. I think that things may change so quickly that I would end up with hail dents. And there's a reasonable chance the hail could be tracking toward my house.Go for it. Structure at the very least like Andy said. I'm just leaving Salina and heading west. I think there's a good probability of a tornado or two in northeastern Colorado anyway, but hail will be the main threat. Might need to get those plows out in a few spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 12z 4knam has joined the supercell in the OKC metro club. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 7, 2016 Share Posted May 7, 2016 The 12Z 4KM NAM presents a dangerous situation for western and central Oklahoma tomorrow. Uh oh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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