Indystorm Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Storms now initiating in sw OK. We are off to the races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 That cell southwest of ICT appears to have developed along an OFB... Lets see if that helps at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 The storm just west of Abilene TX is rapidly intensifying.as it moves ne. Probably a good hailer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Continuing to like my Clinton call I made, it appears as though the chasers who went with that are in a prime spot. Storms are about 25-30 mins away from much better instability and LCLs. Also intrigued to watch around Wichita Falls as EHIs are 3-4 around the city with 3000 CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Storms near Vernon, TX getting their act together as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Looks like initiation is also occurring further north in OK along the DL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2016 Author Share Posted May 8, 2016 0-1 km SRH is already sufficient for tornadoes further E per mesoanalysis, this will only increase as the LLJ strengthens later on and further backing of the surface winds occurs thanks to the pressure falls with the lee cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 It's going to take at least 1-2 hours before the western Oklahoma storms move into a better environment with lower LCLs and substantive SRH: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 The cell west of Blair is quickly getting it's act together. Tops over 40k ft now. Meso already prevalent aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2016 Author Share Posted May 8, 2016 It's going to take at least 1-2 hours before the western Oklahoma storms move into a better environment with lower LCLs and substantive SRH: That might start to backbuild further west as the surface winds respond and the dryline temporarily retreats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 That might start to backbuild further west as the surface winds respond and the dryline temporarily retreats.That and the entire area is analyzed with >50kts bulk shear. It will be interesting to see if we do get multiple rounds of storms or if a few of these early ones can sustain themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Looks like messy initiation in W KS. A decent amount of garbage around some of the stronger cells. Will have to wait and see how it evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Past couple HRRRX and 4KM NAM runs have indicated we should have a dominant cell develop in southwest Oklahoma and move northeast towards the OKC metro by early evening. I'm leaning on heading towards the Altus/Hollis area versus the northern target in S KS. Still have two hours to decide for sure. Moisture down in SW OK would undoubtedly be better than the KS target and a dryline punch could help convective initiation down south as well. We've had elevated storms this morning which could have dropped an OFB or two. Looks like the cell close to Frederick could possiblbly be that very one mentioned here from David. (If it holds together) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Looks like the cell close to Frederick could possiblbly be that very one mentioned here from David. (If it holds together) Frederick cell now has 2.25" as per level-3 hail estimation. That could be an indicator that it is the strongest updraft in the area. Still looks kind of jumbled though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Frederick cell now has 2.25" as per level-3 hail estimation. That could be an indicator that it is the strongest updraft in the area. Still looks kind of jumbled though. I thought it kinda looked like it was splitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Left splits are outperforming rights, indicating we're probably a ways off from hodos supporting a robust tornado threat. We probably initiated too early to maximize the threat, unless the dryline fires more stuff. Initiation on the dryline more like 5:30 would've been a lot more optimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Winds are beginning to back strongly now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2016 Author Share Posted May 8, 2016 Left splits are outperforming rights, indicating we're probably a ways off from hodos supporting a robust tornado threat. We probably initiated too early to maximize the threat, unless the dryline fires more stuff. Initiation on the dryline more like 5:30 would've been a lot more optimal. Looks like the right mover near Frederick is looking better now. Left mover still intense as well. Also have a new storm blowing up near Seymour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 I've been sitting underneath a rotating wall cloud here on top of my house in Stapleton (Denver metro) that isn't warned. I can't figure out what's going on with BOU - but they should have put a TOR warning on this 10 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 One of the better looking left splits you'll see, originally from the Fredrick storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 I've been sitting underneath a rotating wall cloud here on top of my house in Stapleton (Denver metro) that isn't warned. I can't figure out what's going on with BOU - but they should have put a TOR warning on this 10 minutes ago.It's had a decent couplet at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Winds are still weak aloft in NW Oklahoma. 20kt flow at 1-3km AGL isn't going to do much. This is VNX, which is east of the storms firing up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 TW SW of Gove City, KS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 521 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN GOVE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 545 PM CDT * AT 521 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTH OF HEALY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Cool opposite, axisymmetric ZDR arcs on both splits of the Frederick supercell. Clear sign of size sorting and SRH being ingested. Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Sitting in Roosevelt now. Honestly wondering if the storm that developed behind everything in Altus might be my best shot. Frederick is the only other one that looks interesting, but I badly misplayed by going for the northern storms early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 That left mover that came from the Fredrick split is probably the best looking cell out there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Left splits are outperforming rights, indicating we're probably a ways off from hodos supporting a robust tornado threat. We probably initiated too early to maximize the threat, unless the dryline fires more stuff. Initiation on the dryline more like 5:30 would've been a lot more optimal. The expanding grungefest in TX is going to cut off inflow to areas further north. Don't think we win either way in OK... have to go further north into KS for less of that influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Cell SW of Lawton getting that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2016 Author Share Posted May 8, 2016 The expanding grungefest in TX is going to cut off inflow to areas further north. Don't think we win either way in OK... have to go further north into KS for less of that influence. Think it is unwise to be calling this as we enter primetime. Near-sfc inflow is coming from the SE, why would that stuff in TX totally cut that off? Plus the stuff in TX is barely organized aside from the storm near ABI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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