aurora Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 66-67 F Tds are beginning to materialize along the Red River, and we're likely going to see CI in SW OK where the best low level shear should exist by 23-00z... so two of the biggest caveats out of the way. But widespread cloud cover and cool sfc temps extending as far west as Weatherford and Lawton could counteract much of that progress, in terms of the setup as a whole. Just beyond frustrating if it turns out we can't sustain mature storms today, after working out the other issues. Gonna be a nail biter. Anecdotally, was a pretty big temperature gradient while driving west on US-62. Car thermometer read 73F in Lawton at 12:30, 85F in Altus at 1:30. So hopefully the lingering clouds can get out of the I-44/US-281 area while we still have an hour or two of peak heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Cloud cover is not that bad, definitely going to warm given breaks in the clouds with Western extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Initiation maybe underway near Watonga... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Gotta love Mike Morgan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 More hype than anything else... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 It is quite obvious that all the news stations in OKC tend to not get along with the forecasts from the Storm Prediction Center... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Gotta love Mike Morgan. Andy's favorite meteorologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2016 Author Share Posted May 8, 2016 Andy's favorite meteorologist. I don't think there's a met anywhere in the country who does more disservice to his field than him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 The agitated CU behind the DL from the TX panhandle down into W-C. TX will likely initiate soon, becoming surface based as it reaches and passes the DL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Looks like possible CI--or an attempt at CI-- south of Childress, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 The agitated CU behind the DL from the TX panhandle down into W-C. TX will likely initiate soon, becoming surface based as it reaches and passes the DL. Radar is picking something up just north of Paducah, TX. The HRRR continues to show a storm developing generally in this area and eventually having a strong UH signature in the Frederick/Walters area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Tornado Watch just issued through 9 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2016 Author Share Posted May 8, 2016 15z SPC SREF popping a 75 in NW AR tomorrow at 00z btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Broyles for the win. ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW TORNADOES WITH A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ..SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS SEVERAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE. THE FIRST CHANGE IS TO TRIM THE 10 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY FROM NCNTRL KS WHERE INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN TO THE SOUTH. HAVE DRAWN A SIGNIFICANT HATCHED AREA ACROSS THE ENTIRE 10 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY WHERE A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE LATEST RAP HAS DEVELOPED MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN OK AND SCNTRL KS WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP SEVERAL DISCRETE STORMS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REPEAT INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A STRONG TORNADO WILL BE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE 22Z TO 02Z WINDOW FROM BETWEEN LAWTON AND ALTUS EXTENDING NWD TO BETWEEN WOODWARD AND ENID TO MEDICINE LODGE AND GREAT BEND KS. ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK IS TO REMOVE THE ENHANCED RISK FROM NE KS WHERE TODAY'S CONVECTION HAS IMPEDED DESTABILIZATION. HAVE FOCUSED THE SIGNIFICANT HAIL HATCHED AREA FROM WRN OK NWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL KS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS CURRENTLY PRESENT. ..BROYLES.. 05/08/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 149 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 305 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WESTERN NORTH TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Don't agree with SPC's wording with the watch. Should be 60/40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 149 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 305 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WESTERN NORTH TEXAS * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE 50/30 probs on the watch. Interesting decision to include OKC metro in the watch, or really any of the I-35 corridor for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2016 Author Share Posted May 8, 2016 Don't agree with SPC's wording with the watch. Should be 60/40. Lol, what difference does it make? Come on now. Also, going to go ahead and admit I was wrong is assuming that dewpoints wouldn't get past the low 60s in OK today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Lol, what difference does it make? Come on now. Also, going to go ahead and admit I was wrong is assuming that dewpoints wouldn't get past the low 60s in OK today. GFS did a pretty good job it seems. Pretty juicy compared to even what was on the TX coast last night. Tornado potential definitely appears maximized in SW OK where 65-67 DPs are pretty prevalent, so long as they can maintain long enough/initiate late enough to tap into the enhanced LLVL shear later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Still sitting in Clinton at a Hutch's in town. Trying to fight off the urge of going south until things start get going. About 80 minutes to Altus or an hour to Snyder on 183S. Nice clear skies ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Initiation appears to be occurring along a line roughly from Wellington, TX to Seymour, TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Nice change of direction with height per FDR VWP, just not much speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Lol, what difference does it make? Come on now. Also, going to go ahead and admit I was wrong is assuming that dewpoints wouldn't get past the low 60s in OK today. Doesn't really matter, but am just picky about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Lol, what difference does it make? Come on now. Also, going to go ahead and admit I was wrong is assuming that dewpoints wouldn't get past the low 60s in OK today. Hey Andy, wasn't it you who said sometime back that it's a lot easier to get moisture transport northward in May than March? You're a good forecaster. Always look forward to your analysis. RAP seems to be upping the ante for this afternoon in OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL KSCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 082021Z - 082115ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENTSUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGEHAIL...STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES INTO THEEVENING HOURS. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.DISCUSSION...EARLIER CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER HAS RESULTED IN SLOWDESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON...WITHGREATEST DESTABILIZATION BEING NEAR THE NW OK/S-CNTRL KS BORDER.CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF THE CAPAND THUNDERSTORMS COULD EITHER 1. MOVE NORTHEAST INTO S-CNTRL KSFROM NW OK -OR- 2. DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE/WEAKSURFACE TROUGH INTERSECTION NEAR DDC. WHILE IT IS A BIT UNCERTAINHOW STORMS WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE AREA...AT LEAST A COUPLE OFSUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BEPOSSIBLE. AS STORMS TRACK NORTHEAST INTO N-CNTRL KS TOWARD THE WARMFRONT...A TRANSITION TO BOWING SEGMENTS IS POSSIBLE...WITH ANINCREASING THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS IF THIS OCCURS. EASTWARD EXTENTOF THE THREAT REMAINS UNCLEAR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVECONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN KS MUCH OF THE DAY. AS SUCH...THE MOSTLYLIKELY AREA TO SEE SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING ISPORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL KS AND A WATCH WILL BE LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON...LEITMAN/HART.. 05/08/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 First CGs detected with towers approaching the dryline near Hollis. Would expect at least one of those to take off when it moves into the moisture-rich enviornment in about 25 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 There is some initiation around Attica, Kingman, Wichita KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Wow. Mid-60's DPs made it all the way into SC KS and even up to I-70 by the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 New TOR watch for KS, including ICT and DDC, goes all the way up to the KS/NE border. Also has 50/30 probs. * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFCENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSASSOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL1000 PM CDT.* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLEWIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAILEVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLEISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLESUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN ANDCENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THEWATCH AREA. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEWTORNADOES ARE THE MAIN THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 You just posted the info for that watch before the SPC web site had a graphic for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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