ConvectiveIA Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 I am in Des Moines (Just moved here for the purpose of being engaged in severe wx events) and look to make friends to discuss this stuff with frequently. For this round, central IA appears to be on the outer northern edge of this event tonight through Tues with Marginal odds, Slight in the extreme SW corner of IA. Not that impressive but I'm hoping we will at least see a few high-lightning nocturnal storms rolling through if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Past couple HRRRX and 4KM NAM runs have indicated we should have a dominant cell develop in southwest Oklahoma and move northeast towards the OKC metro by early evening. I'm leaning on heading towards the Altus/Hollis area versus the northern target in S KS. Still have two hours to decide for sure. Moisture down in SW OK would undoubtedly be better than the KS target and a dryline punch could help convective initiation down south as well. We've had elevated storms this morning which could have dropped an OFB or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Past couple HRRRX and 4KM NAM runs have indicated we should have a dominant cell develop in southwest Oklahoma and move northeast towards the OKC metro by early evening. I'm leaning on heading towards the Altus/Hollis area versus the northern target in S KS. Still have two hours to decide for sure. Moisture down in SW OK would undoubtedly be better than the KS target and a dryline punch could help convective initiation down south as well. We've had elevated storms this morning which could have dropped an OFB or two. Really been looking at that too. We are going to Clinton and waiting there. If dews look underdone, we will bust south. If not, we go north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Past couple HRRRX and 4KM NAM runs have indicated we should have a dominant cell develop in southwest Oklahoma and move northeast towards the OKC metro by early evening. I'm leaning on heading towards the Altus/Hollis area versus the northern target in S KS. Still have two hours to decide for sure. Moisture down in SW OK would undoubtedly be better than the KS target and a dryline punch could help convective initiation down south as well. We've had elevated storms this morning which could have dropped an OFB or two. With this in mind.. Dr. Forbes just gave West/Central OK a 6 on the Tor:con. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Seems like this convection across both western OK and southern KS will leave behind a vorticity rich environment and possibly even an OFB or two. Thankfully there is not a ton of cloud debris from these over the main threat area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 For those of y'all considering SW Oklahoma today - 12z Ens UH: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 My fantasy target would probably be Hinton, OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 I'll be leaving OUN in about an hour with plans to head to Clinton on I-40. A good place to sit and 'split' the southern and northern target. Winds starting to back in SW OK and NW TX with dews at 60-63°F. Should be able to get 63-64°F to I-40 by early afternoon. The ongoing elevated convection may help things this afternoon with less mixing and a few OFBs to make things interesting. I wonder if the UH tracks Bubba posted are hinting at that OFB setting up. Its 2016 so I'm sure it'll turn into a messy, HP grunge fest but I'd jump off a bridge if I sat at home 90 minutes away while something happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Hi-res model agreement, wind fields on the Frederick VWP, and TD observations on the Mesonet are enough to make me go to Altus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 So which model is everyone going with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 I'll be leaving OUN in about an hour with plans to head to Clinton on I-40. A good place to sit and 'split' the southern and northern target. Winds starting to back in SW OK and NW TX with dews at 60-63°F. Should be able to get 63-64°F to I-40 by early afternoon. The ongoing elevated convection may help things this afternoon with less mixing and a few OFBs to make things interesting. I wonder if the UH tracks Bubba posted are hinting at that OFB setting up. Its 2016 so I'm sure it'll turn into a messy, HP grunge fest but I'd jump off a bridge if I sat at home 90 minutes away while something happened. HP does not make much sense in this case, at least not to me... Not overly abundant moisture, 100-110kt flow at H25, and PWAT values being sub 1.4. Given the likely isolated nature of cells, at least in OK, i'd expect some classic jewels especially as it gets closer to 22-00z as LLVL wind fields will improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Starting to see moisture pool south a potential OFB setting up just south of I-40. If you look at radar you can see elevated convection firing up in proximity to that OFB. We'll have to see how quickly it lifts north early this afternoon. As Aurora said the morning CAMs are showing decent agreement that we will have a show today in W OK. Hopefully they're also correct that convection becomes less organized as it approaches OKC/OUN. I'm tired of circulations passing over my apartment in SE OUN. I'll head west on 40 to Clinton at noon. It's about a 80 minute punch south to Altus if needed or a 2 hour jump north to Alva. I will be streaming chase video on my website this afternoon at texasstormchasers.com/live or directly on YouTube if you prefer that method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 HP does not make much sense in this case, at least not to me... Not overly abundant moisture, 100-110kt flow at H25, and PWAT values being sub 1.4. Given the likely isolated nature of cells, at least in OK, i'd expect some classic jewels especially as it gets closer to 22-00z as LLVL wind fields will improve. Oh I was just ranting - no meteorological background involved. I just expect to be trolled somehow because that seems to be the case this spring in OK so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Oh I was just ranting - no meteorological background involved. I just expect to be trolled somehow because that seems to be the case this spring in OK so far. Ah I gotcha. Just like on 4/29 in SC OK when the intense supercell RFD did the choke job right after producing what seemed like a sig tor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KS AND WESTERN OK... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ..THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NC ..SUMMARY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT AREA FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..SYNOPSIS A LARGE UPPER LOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS NM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MID LEVEL HEIGHT-FALLS AND SUBTLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A SWATH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES...FROM KS SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF TX. ..KS CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE SURFACE DRYLINE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER EAST-CENTRAL KS AND MOVE TOWARD THE KC METRO AREA THIS EVENING...POSING A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY REMAINS A FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS REGION...AND LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. NEVERTHELESS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH THE MORE LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ..OK THE MAJORITY OF 12Z CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT A FEW INTENSE CELLS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A DRYLINE BULGE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST OK OR THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ONLY ONE OR TWO STORMS WILL PERSIST IN THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...BUT VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY BY EARLY/MID EVENING AS IT MOVES OUT OF MAX CAPE CORRIDOR AND INTO SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN OK. ..TX SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WEST CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT THOSE STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..NC 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT MUCH OF NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RATHER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST A THREAT OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. ..HART/BUNTING.. 05/08/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Latest SPC Day 1 has significant tornado risk now into Southwest Oklahoma... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Will be watching this midday convection over south-central Kansas. It's a bit more robust than progged, but should not have a major impact on destabilization through the afternoon. If anything, it may locally keep LCLs down a touch and lay down a boundary or two for storm development later. My target is northwest Oklahoma to south-central Kansas near AVK/P28. This area should have the greatest overlay of favorable shear and moderate instability. It's also close to the surface low and stronger forcing aloft. Southwest Oklahoma could be good too, but I have questions about storm coverage/capping. The latest HRRR is also showing less impressive UH tracks in general across KS/OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 I'd honestly target Clinton today and then see where initiation begins. Once it does you have 183 to hop on either north or south to catch the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 The split hatched tor areas on the 1630 UTC outlook amuse me. Definitely can't complain that these human forecasters are ignoring the CAMs today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 The split hatched tor areas on the 1630 UTC outlook amuse me. Definitely can't complain that these human forecasters are ignoring the CAMs today! What were the CAMs showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 The split hatched tor areas on the 1630 UTC outlook amuse me. Definitely can't complain that these human forecasters are ignoring the CAMs today!Somewhat reminiscent of February 2nd, although a very different meteorological setup. Today's 1630 outlook seems nit-picky to not include NW Oklahoma in the hatched 10%. (Or maybe I'm being nit-picky?) I wouldn't be surprised if there is a gap in storms near to just north of I-40, but even that could be a relatively small spatial area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Side note, if anything gets into OKC later on, the Spurs/Thunder game is tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Think this is the setup most similar to May 6, 2015 since that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Mid 60s dewpoints now in much of Oklahoma excluding the Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Think this is the setup most similar to May 6, 2015 since that day. For the most part... Except Moisture was better that day, lapse rates and mid-upper level winds will be better today. That day saw an impressive amount of tornadoes... 59 across NE/KS/OK/TX per SPC filtered reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Severe watch likely to be issued east of Midland-Odessa, Abilene, San Angelo, Rio Grande Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Severe watch likely to be issued east of Midland-Odessa, Abilene, San Angelo, Rio Grande Valley AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW TO N TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 081709Z - 081845Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN BY 19Z AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. DISCUSSION...EXTENSIVE AGITATED CU FIELD WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BIG BEND AREA NORTHEAST TO THE PERMIAN BASIN JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING HAVING ALREADY ERODED CAPPING SHOULD RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. STORMS MAY INITIALLY REMAIN DISCRETE BEFORE TRANSITIONING TOWARD BOWING SEGMENTS OR GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN E/NEWD PROPAGATING MCS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS TRANSITION IN STORM MODE WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING DAMAGING WIND THREAT. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL TX BY 19Z. STORMS MAY NOT INITIATE/MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A RESULT...WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE LATER THAN FURTHER SOUTHWEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Better than what I was expecting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Definitely an outflow boundary retreating northward across WC OK attm... Hmm... Also appears to be one north of the W OK OFB in S KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 8, 2016 Share Posted May 8, 2016 Better than what I was expecting DPs along the DL should improve later on too, as SFC/ low-level winds back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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