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disMay Pattern Disco


CoastalWx

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MetHerb, on 27 May 2016 - 06:25 AM, said:MetHerb, on 27 May 2016 - 06:25 AM, said:

Where are these 3-6" deficits?  Not in SNE:

 

BOS -2.32

ORH -3.02

PVD -2.83

BDL -3.71

 

NNE:

 

BTV -1.52

CON -2.46

PWM -3.25

BGR -1.48

CAR +2.48

 

I see some 3" values but no 4, 5 or 6" values.  I'm less than 1" below my long term average.

 

Please do not add facts that do not support the devastating drought conditions ongoing in SNE.

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:lol:

It's amazing how some literally just make up facts...never seen anything like it.

 

Obviously not paying much attention to the political scene.  Which is probably wise.

 

I'm about -3.34" for Mar-May.  Was +2.41 for Jan-Feb so the year is pretty close to avg.  No measurable precip 16th-26th and maybe a few cents this morning, so GYX calling for hvy showers Sunday night is good news.  Thru yesterday May temps are 0.06F BN.  Today will be 3-5F AN, tomorrow +10 or more, probably wind up about +0.7 for the month.

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The teleconnections are completely stacked against any warmth for most of June. Maybe the last 4 days are very warm to hot. Another May repeat? ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

 

that was true leading up to this week, too.... the entire time leading up to the current positive departures did not support this eastern ridge, at all, yet...here we are. 

 

it attests to the risk in using the tele's in the same way as the warm season nears.  because, the break-down in the orderly distribution of the r-wave' in the atmosphere means (quite arithmetically) that the same statistical correlations break down.    

 

CDC doesn't even compute the PNA correlations wrt to the other field indices JJA because of that.  so a +PNA ...heh.  

 

having said that, imho i don't think there is 0 use in using them, either... just that out of the two seasons, this sort of anti-thetic look to the flow is more likely to verify in summer than winter.   ...now certainly appears to be one of those times...  

 

and, in fairness then, at some point over the next 30 days the pattern could and probably will at some point have wended its way into a different look.

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point and click has a high of 84 for Boston with a current temp of 65...LOL

 

day's not over ... just be leery ... 

 

we were hung up in the mid 70s out here just west of I-495, and then what wind there can be detected apparently switched from ESE to SW and we popped to 82 ...   

 

NCEP is assessing a weak BD/warm front draped NW-SE through the state and it is apparently lifting NE.  it is possible Logan's wind flips off shore for one of those between 5 and 7 PM late high temp.   

 

we'll see....

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Well I'll give Kevin credit for calling AN. In what looked like a lock for BN, all 4 stations are just a tick or two off from +1.0F. In fairness.....I don't think anyone expected days of 10-15+ departures to finish off the month, but that's what it took. 

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Well I'll give Kevin credit for calling AN. In what looked like a lock for BN, all 4 stations are just a tick or two off from +1.0F. In fairness.....I don't think anyone expected days of 10-15+ departures to finish off the month, but that's what it took. 

I thought the lat 10 days would be warm ..giving us an AN finish. I didn't think it would be crammed into 4 days .

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