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disMay Pattern Disco


CoastalWx

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Sat and Sunday are great..Much of Monday is too..if not whole day. These things always are all over the place models

How does one derive that if modeling is all over the place? The Cape is where I would want to be Monday, inland looks pretty bad. Watch the northern extent of the predecessor rain from Bonnie. Tricky forecast. I would like to be as certain as you but just am not.

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We are in a very very dry persistent pattern. Have been for 2+ months. Nothing is going to change that

It should get much wetter in June as a -NAO/-AO develops along with the western trough slowly sliding east. I'm not saying we'll see huge rains, but I doubt it will be a repeat of the Mar-May dry pattern.
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Reguonwide 3-6" deficits. With a fairly dry look going forwards .. That's not good

 

Where are these 3-6" deficits?  Not in SNE:

 

BOS -2.32

ORH -3.02

PVD -2.83

BDL -3.71

 

NNE:

 

BTV -1.52

CON -2.46

PWM -3.25

BGR -1.48

CAR +2.48

 

I see some 3" values but no 4, 5 or 6" values.  I'm less than 1" below my long term average.

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The teleconnections are completely stacked against any warmth for most of June. Maybe the last 4 days are very warm to hot. Another May repeat? ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

A.C. is not installed, and won't be any time in the near future at my house.  A couple muggy days ahead, bearable, but meh just the same.

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